What Deif’s death would mean for Gaza
When we think of Hamas leadership, most people will immediately think of Ismail Haniyeh, the current chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, who is hiding in Qatar. Some might think of Yahya Sinwar, the current leader of Hamas in Gaza, who is living hiding in tunnels, but fewer people know of Hamas’s military chief, Mohammad Deif.
Deif is the leader of Hamas’s armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, and has been leading the group for more than two decades and has been on Israel’s most wanted list since 1995. Israel recently targeted Deif in an IDF airstrike in a humanitarian zone near Khan Yunis in southern Gaza. In the past, Deif has survived at least seven Israeli assassination attempts, making him a notorious and dangerous figure who has the ability to evade death. He is considered a highly skilled bomb maker and has played a significant role in developing Hamas’s network of tunnels and bomb-making expertise.
Deif has been instrumental in Hamas’s strategy against Israel, and we orchestrated a wave of suicide attacks in 1996 that killed 65 people in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. He is one of the masterminds of the October 7 massacre, and on that terrible morning, Deif released an audio announcing the attacks and encouraged Palestinians in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and Israel proper to join in and escalate the situation: “If you have a gun, get it out. This is the time to use it – get out with trucks, cars, axes, today the best and most honorable history starts.”
While there is still no official confirmation, Israel’s Shin Bet believes that Deif was present at the site of its airstrike attack and made every effort possible to ensure he wouldn’t survive. He emerged from the tunnels in the Khan Yunis refugee camp to meet with Ra’fat Salama, the commander of Khan Yunis, Al-Mawasi. According to Saudi sources, there was a breach in Deif’s security circle, and someone provided information on his movements to Israel. It is believed that Deif was meeting Al-Mawasi over the negotiations of a hostage deal or to issue orders for Hamas’ activities in Khan Yunis. Israel was waiting for Deif to come out of the tunnels, knowing that he had had many health problems over staying in the tunnels for such long periods, and was waiting for their moment to strike.
Since the war began in October, Deif has become the second-in-command of Hamas, and if his death is confirmed, it would mark the most significant loss of a Hamas leader since the conflict started. While Hamas released a statement that Deif was fine, there are rumors suggesting that his body is being held in a hospital in Khan Yunis. Israel even used a bunker-buster bomb to make sure that there was no tunnel for him to escape from. Indeed, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered maximum firepower to take out Deif.
What ramifications will successfully assassinating Deif have, and how does that change the scales of the current war?
What is total victory?
The concept of “total victory” or the “complete defeat” of Hamas means cutting off the heads of the snake. It would be one step closer to Hamas losing sovereignty and control over the territory of Gaza and reducing the organization to tiny rogue terror groups that would no longer govern the Gazans or threaten Israel the way it once had the ability to.
Israel estimates that between 60-80 percent of Hamas’s forces have been destroyed during this war, that about 95% of its rocket capabilities are gone and that most of its battalions have been dismantled. As of now, apart from Yahya Sinwar and his brother Mohammed Sinwar (most likely to take over Deif), only the commanders in Rafah and Gaza City remain alive.
While some might argue that another head will just replace Deif, the reality is that his death will be a huge blow to Hamas. He was not just a leader but a symbol to the terror group who chanted his names in protests around the world. Deif had the ability to reshape a new generation of commanders and with him and his two closest deputies dead, Hamas will be weakened beyond internal repair.
While many argue that assassinating Deif will have ramifications on the hostage deal negotiations, the former IDF intelligence chief argues that shrinking Hamas leadership will make them more amenable to returning the hostages.
There is so much to uncover in this fog of war, but one thing’s for sure: The death of Mohammad Deif will change the course of the current war and begin the steps to a complete defeat of Hamas and the “day after” in Gaza. This is a man who has the blood of thousands of people on his hands, and Israel had a moral obligation to eliminate him as a threat. If Israel were able to assassinate him successfully, it would be a significant blow to Hamas’s abilities and mark a turning point in their reign of terror.
The writer is a social media activist with over 10 years of experience working for Israeli and Jewish causes and cause-based NGOs. She is the co-founder and COO of Social Lite Creative, a digital marketing firm specializing in geopolitics.