Erhurman ahead in poll for next Turkish Cypriot leader election

Opposition political party CTP leader Tufan Erhurman leads a poll published on Wednesday asking Turkish Cypriots who they will vote for in next year’s Turkish Cypriot leadership election.

The poll was conducted by CMIRS and asked a total of 500 people face to face who they would vote for.

Erhurman, who served as the north’s ‘prime minister’ between 2018 and 2019, leads the way with 35.5 per cent, with incumbent Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar in second place, with 29.2 per cent.

Turkish Cypriot Nicosia mayor Mehmet Harmanci is in a distant third place with 7.7 per cent, slightly ahead of Kudret Ozersay, who garnered 7.5 per cent of respondents’ support.

Ozersay was Dervish Eroglu’s chief negotiator for the Cyprus problem, before entering frontline politics and serving as ‘foreign minister’ between 2018 and 2020.

Serdar Denktash, son of late Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash, is in fifth place, with five per cent of respondents having said they would vote for him.

‘Transport minister’ Erhan Arikli is in sixth place, on 4.6 per cent.

Other names mentioned by respondents included former ‘MP’ for Kudret Ozersay’s party the HP Gulsah Sanver Manavoglu, former ‘prime minister’ Sibel Siber, retired judge Emine Dizdarli, and Mehmet Ali Talat’s chief negotiator for the Cyprus problem Ozdil Nami.

Of those potential candidates, only Serdar Denktash has confirmed outright that he will run for election next year, having informed the Cyprus Mail of his intentions in September last year.

Ersin Tatar is overwhelmingly likely to run for re-election, having said last month he is “building up to” a campaign, while Mehmet Harmanci also appears likely to stand, having said in January “it is not possible for a politician who received 49 per cent of the votes to stay only with the Nicosia Turkish Municipality.”

Erhurman has remained coyer, however, having told newspaper Yeni Duzen on Monday “I do not have either a definite ‘no’, nor a definite ‘yes’.”

“This is something related to the CTP’s traditions. Whatever the party decides, we will act accordingly,” he added.

Of the ten potential candidates listed by the survey, six have run in previous Turkish Cypriot leadership elections. Tatar, Erhurman, Ozersay, Arikli, and Denktash all ran in the most recent elections in 2020, finishing in first, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth place respectively.

2020 was Ozersay’s second campaign, having finished in fourth place in 2015 as well. Sibel Siber also ran in 2015, finishing in third place.