How might Beyonce’s ‘Cowboy Carter’ fare in Grammys race for Best Country Album?

Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” has been one of the biggest stories in music this year, with the pop-R&B superstar transitioning yet again into a new genre, this time country and Americana. While the pivot was deemed successful by most critics, with the album receiving overwhelming acclaim, it is yet to be determined if “Cowboy Carter” will achieve what all previous Beyoncé albums have: awards success. While this new era might be acclaimed, there are certain factors that could influence, one way or another, its awards chances unlike any other Beyoncé era. And there’s one award that will likely make or break her in the Grammys’ general field and other categories too: Best Country Album.

The Grammy for Best Country Album has a strong correlation with the ACMs and CMAs. This past year’s Grammy winner, Lainey Wilson’s “Bell Bottom Country,” took home Album of the Year at both those country music ceremonies, and Wilson became a hot commodity because of it. Also, every country album that’s gone on to win Album of the Year at the Grammys has won Best Country Album first (The Chicks’ “Taking The Long Way,” Taylor Swift’s “Fearless,” Kacey Musgraves’s “Golden Hour”). So it’s safe to say that, if Beyoncé were to win big in the general field, she’d need to first get country voters on her side. This won’t necessarily be an easy job.

Three country darlings are returning this year. The first is Chris Stapleton, with his album “Higher.” The album features the lead single “White Horse,” which just won two Grammys for Best Country Song and Best Country Solo Performance. Stapleton has already started to win big with the record, not only with those two Grammys, but also the ACM Award for Album of the Year. Beyoncé wasn’t eligible for those ACMs, so that Stapleton victory doesn’t necessarily mean he’s unbeatable, but it does show that industry members are still on a Stapleton high. He tends to perform even better at the Grammys than at the country shows too. That said, Stapleton isn’t unbeatable: a few years ago Musgraves beat him multiple times at the Grammys with her aforementioned “Golden Hour,” which ultimately won Album of the Year. The tide started turning in Musgraves’s favor first with her 2018 CMA Album of the Year win, and in Beyoncé’s case, it might need to go this way for her at the CMAs later this year too in order for her to be competitive for the Grammy.

Another Grammy heavyweight is Willie Nelson, who recently released his album “The Border.” Nelson has won five Grammys in the past eight years, which is quite a lot for an artist who is past his commercial prime. His last country release, “A Beautiful Time,” won Best Country Album against major competitors like Luke Combs, Miranda Lambert and Maren Morris. Nelson’s biggest advantage is that there will likely be no other legend of his stature nominated, so he might monopolize older voters, especially since it’s hard to see them going for something as progressive as “Cowboy Carter.” Still, Nelson has lost more Grammys than he’s won, so there’s a chance to beat him, especially as he won Country Album not long ago.

The third Grammy darling who’s returning is Musgraves. Her newest release, “Deeper Well,” is a return to form for the singer, leaning more on the folk side rather than pop like her divisive last album, “Star-Crossed.” As such, it might fare better with voters, especially considering “Deeper Well” is the most acclaimed album out of the released contenders thus far that isn’t “Cowboy Carter.”

The buzz might also point towards Zach Bryan as a viable winner. The rootsy singer-songwriter is already experiencing success with his top-10 hit “Pink Skies,” the lead single from his upcoming album, “The Great American Bar Scene.” The album is likely going to at least match the success of his previous, self-titled record, so it’s unlikely to miss the nom. And since he didn’t win last year, maybe there’s enough sympathy for his loss plus hype for his new era to net him a win.

And speaking of last year, there’s also reigning champion Wilson, who will be in contention for her new album, “Whirlwind,” out this summer. Wilson’s recent win makes it hard to imagine she will be snubbed entirely, but it could happen due to the sheer volume of contenders.

So, in short, Best Country Album is quite competitive, enough that we can’t call Beyoncé a lock. In fact, it wouldn’t be a complete shocker if the lineup excludes her from even a nomination, with Bryan, Stapleton, Nelson, Wilson and Musgraves getting the five slots, especially as the last four are all previous category winners. Still, let’s have faith that the Grammys choose acclaim over name recognition … or that Beyoncé’s team submits to Best Americana Album instead.

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