Why Manila ended up 5th riskiest city for tourists out of 60 int’l cities
Does the Philippine capital deserve being at the bottom of the list with Caracas, Karachi, Yangon, and Lagos?
MANILA, Philippines – Why did Manila end up as the 5th riskiest city for tourists out of 60 international cities based on a study by media company Forbes Advisor?
That’s because of seven indicators that the Philippine government prefers to downplay when it markets the country’s capital and the whole country abroad and reports on the state of the nation.
Manila was in the company of Caracas, Venezuela (1st); Karachi, Pakistan (2nd); Yangon, Myanmar (3rd); Lagos, Nigera (4th) as the riskiest cities.
The top 10 least risky cities, according to Forbes Advisor:
- 1: Singapore
- 2: Tokyo, Japan
- 3: Toronto, Canada
- 4: Sydney, Australia
- 5: Zurich, Switzerland
- 6: Copenhagen, Denmark
- 7: Seoul, South Korea
- 8: Osaka, Japan
- 9: Melbourne, Australia
- 10: Amsterdam, Netherlands
Forbes Advisor used seven metrics in its study and gave a weight or importance to each category. It also cited the bases for the scores. These are:
- Travel safety rating
- Weight: 20% of score
- Basis: US Department of State, 2023
- Crime risk: Overall level of crime in each city
- Weight: 17% of score
- Basis: Numbeo data, 2024
- Personal security risk: Risk from crime, violence, terrorist threats, natural disasters and economic vulnerabilities
- Weight: 17% of score
- Basis: The Economist, 2021
- Health security risk: Reflects the level and quality of healthcare services and infrastructure in a city
- Weight: 17% of score
- Basis: The Economist, 2021
- Infrastructure security risk: Reflects the availability and quality of city infrastructure and its vulnerability to man-made and natural disasters
- Weight: 10% of score
- Basis: The Economist, 2021
- Natural disaster risk: Reflects exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters
- Weight: 10% of score
- Basis: The World Risk Report, Ruhr University Bochum, 2023
- Digital security risk: Reflects the ability of citizens to freely use the internet without fear of privacy violations, identity theft and online attacks
- Weight: 9% of score
- Basis: The Economist, 2021
Forbes Advisor said each metric was "measured on a scale of 1 to 60, with 1 representing the worst performance in that metric."
How did Manila fare based on these metrics? It was 9th riskiest in terms of crime; 5th riskiest in terms of personal security; 7th riskiest in terms of health security; 9th riskiest in terms of infrastructure security; and 12th riskiest in terms of digital security.
If you watch Philippine news daily, you'll find that GMA's 24 Oras, ABS-CBN's TV Patrol, and TV5's Frontline Pilipinas often have reports on these issues on a daily basis, especially on crime and personal security, and recently even digital security.
Credible bases?
Did Forbes Advisor have good bases for its study? Here's a look at the sources it cited.
For travel safety, it used the US Department of State's reports on travel advisories.
The US government issues regular travel advisories which, it says, "represent our commitment to protect US citizens abroad."
It says these travel advisories are intended to help travelers "make informed decisions when deciding to take a trip abroad." It also says its analysis is "undertaken without regard to bilateral political or economic considerations."
The US State Department has four levels for each country, including crime, terrorism, civil unrest, health, likelihood of a natural disaster, and current events."
The US travel advisory has four levels:
- Exercise normal precautions
- Exercise increase caution
- Reconsider travel
- Do not travel
"We review Travel Advisories on a regular basis. At a minimum, we review Level 1 and 2 Travel Advisories every 12 months. We review Level 3 and 4 Travel Advisories at least every six months. A Travel Advisory will also be updated anytime there is a change in U.S. government posture, normally as it relates to ongoing security concerns," the US State Department says on its website.
What risk indictators do the US government use when advising its citizens about their travel plans?
- "C - Crime: Widespread violent or organized crime is present in areas of the country. Local law enforcement may have limited ability to respond to serious crimes.
- T - Terrorism: Terrorist attacks have occurred and/or specific threats against civilians, groups, or other targets may exist.
- U - Civil Unrest: Political, economic, religious, and/or ethnic instability exists. It may cause violence, major disruptions, and/or safety risks.
- H - Health: Health risks, including current disease outbreaks or a crisis that disrupts a country’s medical infrastructure, are present. The issuance of a Centers for Disease Control Travel Notice may also be a factor.
- N - Natural Disaster: A natural disaster, or its aftermath, poses danger.
- E - Time-limited Event: Short-term event, such as elections, sporting events, or other incidents that may pose safety risks.
- K - Kidnapping or Hostage Taking: Criminal or terrorist individuals or groups have threatened to and/or have seized or detained and threatened to kill, injure or continue to detain individuals in order to compel a third party (including a governmental organization) to do or abstain from doing something as a condition of release.
- D - Wrongful Detention: The risk of wrongful detention of US nationals exists.
- O - Other: There are potential risks not covered by previous risk indicators."
Numbeo's crime indices
Forbes Advisor also used Numbeo for assessing crime risk.
According to Numbeo, it is the "world's largest database of user-contributed data" about cities and countries. It claims to provide "current and timely information" on cost of living, housing indicators, health care, traffic, crime and pollution.
"Numbeo uses the wisdom of the crowd to obtain the most reliable information possible," its site says. Its crime and safety is based on 12 categories:
- Level of Crime Perception
- Change in Crime Levels
- Daytime Safety Perception
- Nighttime Safety Perception
- Concerns about Mugging or Robbery
- Concerns about Car Theft or Break-ins
- Concerns about Physical Attacks by Strangers
- Concerns about Insults or Harassment in Public
- Concerns about Bias-Motivated Attacks
- Drug Problem Perception
- Property Crime Severity
- Violent Crime Severity
"…Numbeo gathers valuable data to provide users with an in-depth understanding of crime and safety conditions in different cities. By comparing and analyzing this information, individuals can make more informed decisions regarding their personal safety and the safety of their communities," the site says.
This is how Manila fares in terms of crime, based on Numbeo's methodology. There were 419 contributors and its last update was in June 2024. Numbeo says its data are "based on perceptions of visitors" in the past five years.
Comments on the crime page are mixed. One netizen said on June 2, 2023 that he's "always wary" that something could happen, noting that "Manila is a hotspot for crime than other provinces since the city is overpopulated."
A netizen, "Anon," said on March 12, 2021: "I will admit Manila has improved under the administration of Duterte and Mayor Isko Moreno when it comes to cleaning the streets to look nice. But the crime and corruption has not changed, it’s the same as it was since 2016 the only thing that’s worse is police are becoming more trigger happy and abusive, sort of reverting back to the Marcos era."
Safe Cities Index, World Risk Report
The Economist 2021 report that Forbes Advisor cited is based on the publication's Safe Cities Index 2021, which covered 60 major urban areas.
Safe Cities index was launched in 2015. It had 44 indicators covering 50 cities, updated every two years.
It used 76 indicators such as digital, health, infrastructure, personal and environmental security. These findings, the report says, were "supplemented with wide-ranging research and in-depth interviews with experts in the field."
Based on The Economist's study, Manila had an overall score of 525. It was also close to the bottom of the list, placing 51st out of 60 cities. Yangon was at the bottom while Copenhagen was at the top.
And lastly, for natural disaster risk, Forbes Advisor used the World Risk Report 2023 produced by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) at Ruhr University Bochum, a public institute in Germany.
The report essentially assessed the risks from natural disasters and how these impact people in 193 countries. The Philippines had the highest disaster risk in 2023, followed by Indonesia and India.
The index is based on exposure, vulnerability, susceptibility, lack of coping capacities, and lack of adaptive capacities, with the Philippines scoring poorly on all. – Rappler.com