2025 Oscar predictions: Danielle Deadwyler (‘Piano Lesson’) redemption after she was cruelly snubbed for ‘Till’?

Two years ago Danielle Deadwyler was widely predicted to receive an Oscar nomination for her performance in “Till” as real-life grieving mother Mamie Till-Mobley. She ranked third in our Best Actress odds, but it wasn’t meant to be. Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”) received a shocker of a nomination, crowding Deadwyler out. She could cash in that IOU this year, though. According to the early predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing, she’s the initial front-runner to win Best Supporting Actress for “The Piano Lesson.”

Deadwyler ranked so high in our 2023 Best Actress odds because of how well she had done throughout that awards season, scoring noms at the Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA Awards, among other plaudits. That made her absence from the category especially glaring, but missing out once can help set the narrative for your next opportunity for the gold. For instance, Catherine Zeta-Jones wasn’t even nominated for her standout performance in “Traffic” (2000), but then won for “Chicago” (2002) just two years later. And Sally Hawkins was overlooked for “Happy-Go-Lucky” (2008) only to score her somewhat surprising first nomination five years later for “Blue Jasmine” (2013).

“The Piano Lesson,” based on August Wilson‘s play, comes to the screen with many of the actors from its 2022 Broadway staging. Deadwyler is a new addition to the cast, playing Berniece Charles, a role that earned S. Epatha Merkerson a Tony nomination in 1990 and Alfre Woodard an Emmy nomination in 1995 for a telefilm adaptation. So while this upcoming version of “The Piano Lesson” has yet to be seen, her character already has an established awards track record. And August Wilson adaptations have done well so far at the Oscars, with “Fences” (2016) winning Best Supporting Actress for Viola Davis and earning a Best Actor nom for Denzel Washington, while “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (2020) picked up lead noms for Davis and Chadwick Boseman. Will Deadwyler and company continue the streak?

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