Are the Warriors too attached to Brandin Podziemski?

The second-year guard has a lot of value.

The Golden State Warriors entered the NBA offseason with dueling plans: swing for the fences in a trade, and retain their young, homegrown talent. Those goals don’t always have to be at odds with each other, but the Dubs somewhat lack the other two assets craved by NBA teams: good future draft picks, and high-caliber veterans. The Warriors didn’t have their own first-round pick in June’s draft, though they can trade a few in upcoming seasons. And among their veterans, Kevon Looney has limited trade value and Andrew Wiggins quite likely has negative value.

So if the Warriors want to make a big trade (which they openly want to do), they’d likely have to part with some of their exciting young talent (which they openly don’t want to do). It’s how we end up with impasses such as the current one, where the Warriors seem to have lost steam in their attempts to trade for Utah Jazz All-Star Lauri Markkanen, because of Utah’s desire to get Brandin Podziemski included in the deal.

Which brings up a natural question: do the Dubs value Podziemski too much? Golden State values Podziemski more than the rest of the NBA does — as The Athletic’s Anthony Slater recently wrote, “his internal value ... appears to supersede the external reputation” — but that shouldn’t be surprising. Teams usually value their own players more (with the exception of a few players who are valued less by their teams), because they see what’s happening behind closed doors, and they already know how well that player can function in their particular schemes. In short, Podziemski is a good player and the Warriors have more data on him than other teams do ... so they’ll value him more highly.

But it is worth noting that Podziemski’s reputation isn’t just driven by the Dubs and a stubborn Jazz front office. The rest of the league seems to really like him, too, as evidenced by this observation from the Mercury News’ Danny Emerman, in response to Joe Lacob’s claim that the Warriors believe Podziemski is a future All-Star.

Context is always key when evaluating how much a team values a player. The Warriors and Jazz having a deal hung up on Podziemski doesn’t mean Golden State thinks their young guard is better than a proven All-Star forward ... it means they think their young guard with his contract status included, plus the other draft picks and players they’d need to part with is more valuable than Markkanen, especially when his contract status is included.

The 27-year old Markkanen is a rental who is owed just over $18 million for the coming season, and then will enter unrestricted free agency. Given that they’d be acquiring his Bird rights and would have an exclusive negotiating period, it’s safe to assume the Warriors would re-sign the 2022-23 All-Star, but it’s even safer to assume that it will cost them deep into nine-figure territory.

Podziemski, on the other hand, still has three years left on his rookie deal at just under $13 million combined, at which point he would enter restricted free agency, guaranteeing that Golden State could keep him around. So a hesitation to part ways with him isn’t just because the Dubs value him going forward; it’s the total package.

Still, it’s fair to wonder if Golden State is clinging too tightly to their own. But even that concern is immediately rebutted by the crystal clear evidence that Steve Kerr — often at odds with the front office over the playing time of young players — trusts and values Podziemski far more than he ever has with a first-year player. If there’s one youngster over the last decade that Kerr and the front office have seen eye-to-eye on (positively, at least), it’s Podziemski. That, too, is an element that needs consideration and can’t fully be calculated.

There is, of course, some element of a mystery box for fans and organizational members alike when it comes to young players. No one wants to part with a player who could be something special, even if they’re getting someone who is something special already.

Podziemski just might be something special. The Warriors are operating as if the odds are in his favor. And if not? Well, his floor is already established as a damn good role player. You can understand why there’s no desire to move away from that.