Global airline passengers may double in 20 years

PARIS: Airlines expect overall passenger numbers to double over the next two decades from the 4.3 billion who flew last year, with growth led by emerging markets such as Asia Pacific and the Middle East, the main global airline body said on Thursday.

The projected surge in traffic could put further pressure on carriers to contribute to the fight against climate change and make progress towards a pledge to reach “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050.

Average annual passenger growth is expected to be 3.6 per cent a year to 2043, compared with a forecast of 9.7pc growth this year, the International Air Transport Association said in its latest update.

The Asia Pacific region would lead with average growth of 4.8pc, propelled by countries like India (6.9pc) and China (5.8pc) but also Thailand and Vietnam (6.4pc each), the IATA said.

Passenger growth in Africa and the Middle East would rise by 3.6pc, while Latin American and the Caribbean would see a 2.9pc increase.

The mature markets of North America and Europe would see growth of 1.7pc and 2pc, the association said.

Air transport currently accounts for less than 3pc of global CO2 emissions, but is often in the firing line because it serves a minority of the world’s population.

Airlines are mainly betting on increased production of sustainable aviation fuels produced from renewable sources, expected to provide 65pc of the industry’s “net zero” target for 2050.

But the technological challenges of producing such fuels at scale — they currently provide just 0.53pc of airlines’ fuel consumption — are likely to require huge investments.

Meanwhile, North American aerospace factory workers seeking to reduce mandatory overtime and lock in four-day work weeks are facing some pushback from planemakers trying to increase production to meet soaring demand for jets.

In aviation, improved work-life balance has joined higher pay as key demands from pilots to aircraft mechanics after hybrid work weeks emerged after the pandemic. But big scheduling changes on the factory floor could weigh on manufacturers’ efforts to produce more commercial jets.

Published in Dawn, July 19th, 2024