Sectarian Violence Escalates: ISIS Targets Shi’ite Worshippers In Historically Peaceful Oman – Analysis

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)—a militant Sunni Muslim group known for its extreme interpretation of Islam and violent tactics aimed at establishing a caliphate—has taken responsibility for a deadly attack on a mosque in Oman on Monday (July 15).

This marks the group’s first attack in the Gulf state, despite its continued targeting of Shi’ite Muslims. The attack took place during Ashura, a significant observance for Shi’ite Muslims who commemorate the death of Imam Ali, cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad, who is highly revered in Shi’ite Islam for his leadership and martyrdom.

Six people were killed in a shooting near a Shi’ite mosque in Muscat, including four Pakistani citizens and one Omani police officer. The three gunmen were also killed and 28 people of various nationalities were injured, according to Agence France-Presse. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack on Tuesday (July 16), via the messaging service, Telegram.

An ‘Intra-Faith’ Acrimony

Oman has enjoyed a long period of security, making this the first ISIS attack in the country. Aaron Zelin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, mentioned that the shooting was more about targeting Shi’ite Muslims than Oman, itself. He told Al-Monitor it was part of a larger animosity towards Shi’ites.

This animosity dates back to the days of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, former leader of the al-Qaeda—a militant Sunni Muslim organization founded by Osama bin Laden, who is known for orchestrating global terrorist attacks and advocating for a strict form of Islamic governance—in Iraq. The ISIS originated as an offshoot of the al-Qaeda in Iraq, but later broke away due to ideological and strategic differences, eventually becoming a rival jihadist group.

Extremist Groups in West Asia

Oman is predominantly home to Ibadi Muslims, a branch distinct from both Sunni and Shi’ite Islam. Iran is predominantly Shi’ite Muslim, while Iraq has a majority of Shi’ite Muslims along with a significant Sunni population. Syria consists primarily of Sunni Muslims, although it includes a notable Alawite minority (a sect of Shia Islam). Pakistan is mostly Sunni Muslim, with a significant Shi’ite minority. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are both predominantly Sunni Muslim countries.

Dynamics of Oman Security

Zarqawi led al-Qaeda in Iraq during the mid-2000s and was behind many attacks on Shi’ite Iraqis following the US invasion. The ISIS, which evolved from Zarqawi’s group, continues to target Shi’ites across West Asia. In January, the ISIS claimed responsibility for two bombings near the burial site of Qasem Soleimani, the late Quds Force commander, in Iran.

The ISIS follows an extreme version of Sunni Islam. In Oman, about 45% of Muslims are Sunni, another 45% are Ibadi and around 5% are Shi’ite. This demographic balance is one reason why the ISIS has not been active in the country, according to Zelin. With Oman’s large Ibadi population, there are fewer people who the extremists can recruit, explains Zelin. Even if only a small section of its population shows interest in extremism, even fewer believe in the tenets of violent extremism.

Zelin also mentions that Oman does not have the same radicalization influences from governments and mosques seen in other areas. Additionally, the country’s strong security makes it difficult for anyone to infiltrate. In other parts of West Asia and North Africa, mosques have been connected to militant activities. For instance, in Tunisia, the government took action against certain mosques in 2014 and 2015 following attacks by jihadist groups, according to reports from that period.

Presence of ISIS in the Gulf

The ISIS reached its peak power in 2014 after seizing large areas of Iraq and Syria. In 2015, the group claimed responsibility for attacks on Shi’ite Muslims in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. According to Zelin, the ISIS is now “definitely a lot weaker” in the Gulf due to containment measures by regional governments. Zelin notes that the ISIS has been interested in Oman for a while, even though they have not acted until recently.

Internal ISIS documents published later reveal that they had plans from 2017 to 2019 to carry out attacks in Oman, targeting Western embassies, according to Zelin. He was referring to their campaign against the US-led coalition in Iraq and Syria. Even though those attacks never came about, it shows that ISIS has been considering Oman for attacks for at least seven years, if not longer.

Zelin also explains that the documents were linked to ISIS in Yemen, where the group still has token presence. The US State Department’s 2022 report on terrorism in Yemen mentioned that the ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula maintained “significant areas of influence in the south”.

A September 2023 report by the American Enterprise Institute noted that the ISIS in Yemen was declining, acting mainly as a financial and facilitation link between IS-Somalia and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) in Afghanistan, which branch is mostly made up of fighters from Tajikistan and is believed to be responsible for the March attack on a Moscow music venue.