Will Virna Jandiroba break through into the upper tier of the UFC women's strawweight division by getting past Amanda Lemos?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 60 main event between former strawweight title challenger Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba.

Amanda Lemos UFC on ESPN 60 preview

Amanda Lemos UFC 298 ceremonial weigh-ins

Staple info:

• Height: 5’4″ Age: 37 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65″
• Last fight: Decision win over Mackenzie Dern (Feb. 17, 2024)
• Camp: Marajo Brothers Team (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
• Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:
+ Jungle Fight bantamweight title
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Accurate hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Hard kicks and knees
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Solid positional grappler
^ Aggressive from topside

Virna Jandiroba UFC on ESPN 60 preview

Staple info:

• Height: 5’5″ Age: 35 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 64″
• Last fight: Decision win over Lupita Godinez (March 30, 2023)
• Camp: Fight House/Team Velame (Brazil)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ Invicta FC strawweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 1 KO victory
+ 13 submission wins
+ 8 first-round finish
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking skills
+ Deceptive wrestling ability
^ In the open or against the fence
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Works well from top or bottom

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba point of interest: The cost of counters

Aug 19, 2023; Boston, MA, USA; Weili Zhang (red gloves) fights Amanda Lemos (blue gloves) during UFC 292 at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The main event in Las Vegas features a showdown between two top-ranked strawweights who are familiar with the cost of counters.

Even though Jandiroba is not a dedicated counterstriker by any stretch, she’s been forced to understand the nature of counters in MMA, given the dynamic her style presents.

Coming from a background of primarily Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Jandiroba has been steadily playing catchup in the striking department since stepping on the big stage. Despite it initially being an obvious means to an end, Jandiroba has made clear strides in both her striking technique and understanding of exchanges.

Working behind a steady dose of jabs and feints, Jandiroba wields a deceptively hard right hand that’s effective whether she is coming forward or looking to counter. Still, “Cacara” will need to be careful when coming forward against a superior counter puncher like Lemos.

An athletic fighter who also used to compete at 135 pounds, Lemos brings some interesting problems to the table. A stance-switching striker, Lemos is comfortable throwing her patent hooks and crosses from both stances.

The former Jungle Fight champion does appear to operate more out of orthodox, but has no issues shifting to southpaw to either counter with a check hook or come forward to finish a combination. Lemos also regularly looks to land hard leg kicks, but I suspect that her front kicks and knees will serve her better given the level-changing threats from Jandiroba.

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba breakdown: Winning the wrestling

May 6, 2023; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Marina Rodriguez (red gloves) fights Virna Jandiroba (blue gloves) during UFC 288 at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Considering the styles clash at hand, no one should be shocked if Jandiroba looks for takedowns early and often.

Always sticking to a clear and consistent game plan, there’s no secret about what someone like Jandiroba wants. An accoladed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Jandiroba has smartly made strides in her wrestling since transitioning over to MMA.

Jandiroba has demonstrated serviceable reactive shots in the open, but arguably does her best work when chaining takedown attempts along the cage. That said, Jandiroba will still need to be careful about getting stuck in the clinch with someone like Lemos.

Lemos has some solid muay Thai sensibilities that make her an offensive threat via the knee and elbow traffic she controls off of collar ties (which could create damaging moments anytime Jandiroba allows for the proper space). Nevertheless, I suspect that Lemos’ defense will be what’s tested if these two tangle in the wrestling realm.

Lemos seems to have some decent defensive instincts regarding her whizzer and underhook awareness, attempting to either hoist or turn her opposition when appropriate. The 10-year pro can also hit crafty trips from clinch space, showing a strong top game whenever action flows to the floor.

However, even if Lemos is the one who ends up on top, she could still be playing right into Jandiroba’s wheelhouse.

Not only is Jandiroba a legitimate threat from full guard, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion can also channel her inner Demian Maia when it comes to reversing from the half guard. Jandirob is also good about isolating one of her opponent’s legs in transition – something that assists in her control of the positions.

Once Jandiroba can secure herself in the top position, she wastes little time when it comes to working toward the back and funneling her opposition toward her preferred choke points.

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba odds

The oddsmakers and the public are slightly favoring the former Invicta champion, listing Jandiroba -142 and Lemos +122 via FanDuel.

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba prediction, pick

May 6, 2023; Newark, New Jersey, USA; Marina Rodriguez (red gloves) fights Virna Jandiroba (blue gloves) during UFC 288 at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Despite not disagreeing with whose favored, it’s nice to see both ladies getting some respect, given the spread of the betting line above.

Jandiroba may not be the most popular fighter among casual fans, but she is quietly one of the more consistent threats that this division has to offer. And though Jandiroba’s striking doesn’t leave a lot to write home about on the feet, her wrestling and grappling superiority are more than enough to make some serious hay at strawweight.

Lemos has made clear efforts to shore up her holes regarding these sorts of stylistic threats, but her propensity to turtle in scrambles is what I see costing her here.

Aside from the fact that the majority of Jandiroba’s finishes come by way of rear-naked choke, the smaller octagon arguably encourages the kinds of exchanges where “Cacara” thrives (as opposed to Lemos, who likes more space to operate in).

Add in the fact that Lemos will likely be shelving a lot of her offense in the form of kicks to avoid potential takedowns, and I can’t help but side with the superior grappler in Jandiroba.

Lemos is not an easy fighter to finish, but I’ll wager that Jandiroba can cook her way to a submission win in Round 3.

Prediction: Jandiroba inside the distance

Amanda Lemos vs. Virna Jandiroba start time, where to watch

As the main event, Lemos and Jandiroba are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. PT). The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 60.