Tua Tagovailoa is approaching his Kirk Cousins era, and it may not be enough for the Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa's contract situation may leave him, and the Dolphins, in limbo.

Tua Tagovailoa, as it stands, is set to become a free agent in 2025. That’s not typically something that happens to the NFL’s reigning passing yardage leader.

There are, of course, several ways to remedy this. The Miami Dolphins could come to a long term contract extension with the quarterback it once drafted fifth overall. Given the current market, that would cost something like $275 million over five years with a $200 million guarantee to match Trevor Lawrence’s deal elsewhere in Florida.

Or the Dolphins could let him play out 2024 knowing it has the right to use the franchise tag to retain him next offseason for one year and something like $40 million guaranteed. If that works out, they could do it again in 2026 for $48 million. While that isn’t common, it’s not unheard of. It’s what the Washington Commanders did with Kirk Cousins.

And that, actually, is a pretty good comparison for Tagovailoa, a player with solid numbers, Pro Bowl accolades and a dearth of meaningful postseason success.

2024 may be Tagovailoa’s defining line as an NFL quarterback

We already know Tagovailoa can be an above average passer in a lineup loaded with weapons. We know he can guide Miami to the playoffs. We don’t know if he can be the difference between winning and losing once he gets there.

In four years, Tagovailoa is 32-19 as a regular season starter and never had a losing season in the lineup. He’s also got only one playoff appearance to show for it, accounting for injury and a rookie campaign that didn’t really begin until the Dolphins’ seventh game of 2020. That Wild Card start was a disaster on a frigid day in Kansas City against the soon-to-be-crowned back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

Tagovailoa completed only 20 of his 39 attempts for 199 yards. Take away a 53-yard touchdown strike to Tyreek Hill — Miami’s only touchdown of the day — and that falls to a 50 percent completion rate and a disgusting 3.8 yards per pass attempt. Skylar Thompson, the third stringer forced into the Dolphins’ 2023 Wild Card loss to the Buffalo Bills, averaged 4.9 yards per pass (albeit while connecting on 18 of 45 attempts for a tidy 40 percent completion rate).

While there’s hope Tagovailoa would be better in a more hospitable environment (i.e. one that doesn’t give spectators frostbite), his big 2023 numbers fail to back this up. The fourth-year quarterback had eight games last fall where he recorded a passer rating of 100.0 or better. All eight came against teams with losing records. In six games against teams who made it to the postseason, Tagovailoa was significantly worse.

That frustrating record against good teams includes two games that ended the regular season in which the Dolphins could have clinched the AFC East — losses to the Ravens and Bills where Tagovailoa threw two interceptions apiece.

This all dulls the luster of a season in which Tagovailoa was a statistical breakthrough. His 123.6 expected points added (EPA) on passing plays was second highest in the NFL behind only Brock Purdy. He completed more than 50 percent of his deep throws (31 of 61, per SIS). He did absolutely filthy things to the poor Denver Broncos.

This only serves to make Miami’s decision about its prospective franchise quarterback more difficult. The Dolphins are 5-10 in games Tagovailoa hasn’t started. Take away his 2020 numbers, where Ryan Fitzpatrick was the team’s early QB1, and that drops to 2-6. This all feels like compelling evidence to pay him, but I’m not sure it is. The players who’ve started in his stead the last three seasons are Thompson, Jacoby Brissett and Teddy Bridgewater — three guys you’d sorta expect to carry you to a 25 percent win rate.

If Tagovailoa remains perfectly serviceable but rarely great, he could wind up in contract limbo

Back to Cousins. Cousins’ rookie contract expired in 2016 after a 9-7 stint in his first season as Washington’s full-time starter. He was franchise tagged for 2016 and once again finished with a winning record, albeit just barely at 8-7-1. Those two years constitute two of the team’s three winning seasons since 2008.

Those two years also ended with zero playoff wins, leading Washington to cast its lot elsewhere as Cousins left for a fully guaranteed three year, $84 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings. Through it all, he’s been a Pro Bowl quarterback who consistently puts up top 10 numbers. He also has a lone postseason victory to his credit — a Wild Card win in New Orleans over the Saints (to his credit, Cousins played a significant role in knocking off Drew Brees) — in 12 years as a pro.

Miami could see this as an argument against paying Tagovailoa. After all, Minnesota surrounded him with Pro Bowl targets (Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson) and failed to make it to even an NFC title game (a place the team had been with Case Keenum at quarterback). Or it could see it as an argument in favor, as Washington gave Cousins a sizable chunk of guaranteed money just to leave his franchise stranded in the wilderness when it came to passers in the years that followed. Behold, the list of quarterbacks to start games in the five seasons after Kirk Cousins left the Commanders:

• Alex Smith
• Josh Johnson
• Colt McCoy
• Mark Sanchez
• Dwayne Haskins
• Case Keenum
• Kyle Allen
• Ryan Fitzpatrick
• Garrett Gilbert
• Taylor Heinicke
• Carson Wentz
• Sam Howell

Gross!

There’s also, of course, a hybrid model in which Tagovailoa gets tagged one season and extended the next. Or tagged and traded. Or signed to an incentive laden deal with less guaranteed cash but higher annual salaries. There are several ways Miami could handle this. All we know for now is head coach Mike McDaniel is happy to go back to battle with his left-handed quarterback and capable of pushing him to great heights behind an explosive roster of playmakers.

But! At what point does the firework factory burn down? Tyreek Hill is coming off his most impactful season as a pro but also just turned 30 years old. Raheem Mostert is 32 and free agent signee Odell Beckham Jr. will be 32 in November. De’Von Achane averaged nearly eight yards per carry as a rookie but only played 300 snaps thanks to injury.

The offensive line that cleared a path for a league high 5.1 yards per carry has to replace two thirds of its interior starters now that Robert Hunt and Connor Williams are no longer on the roster (Hunt is the more significant loss there). What happens if opposing defenses catch on to McDaniel’s wizardry and shut down the fast-acting passing game that served Tagovailoa so well (his 2.26 seconds from snap to throw were lowest in the NFL) and force him to cycle through his progressions on a regular basis?

These are all valid concerns that could have serious effects on Tagovailoa’s contract year. And we haven’t yet gotten to a defense that may rely heavily on a cache of veterans on the wrong side of 30 like Shaquil Barrett, Calais Campbell, Jordan Poyer, Marcus Maye and Jalen Ramsey!

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The Dolphins propped Tagovailoa up by surrounding him with veteran playmakers. That move paid dividends in the regular season but has yet to result in postseason glory; the last Miami head coach with a playoff win is Dave by-god Wannstedt. There’s an expiration date on that strategy, and it comes either when your young quarterback fails to level up or the stars you brought in to speed his development hit the downslope of their careers.

2024 might not shed any light on the date printed on the Dolphins’ label. Or it could be the year that proves Tagovailoa is worth $200 million guaranteed. Or it could be the season Miami sheds a one-and-done playoff destiny for a rebuild. The most likely outcome is somewhere in between. Whether Tagovailoa is great, good, or terrible, this team should still be pretty entertaining along the way.