Gavin Newsom is ‘all in’ for President Biden as defections grow. He’s playing the ‘long game’

BY ALEXEI KOSEFF | CalMatters

As efforts to push embattled President Joe Biden out of the race crescendo, Gov. Gavin Newsom has remained one his most committed champions.

Asked last week by CBS News’ Robert Costa about receiving appeals to jump into the fray to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, Newsom said he hits “delete, delete, delete, delete” on the texts and emails.

“I’m all in, no daylight” with Biden, Newsom said in a short clip released by CBS News to promote the interview, which was ultimately preempted after Saturday’s attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.

Though not a new message from Newsom, it underscores how the governor has emerged as perhaps Biden’s most forceful surrogate through the chaos that followed the president’s June 27 debate debacle. As a growing number of elected officials call for Biden to forgo his party’s nomination for a second term, Newsom has tied himself more closely to the president than almost any Democrat in the country who’s not already on the ticket — including other ascendant younger politicians who could potentially be his rivals in a future presidential race.

Political strategists told CalMatters this is a prudent posture for Newsom, who does not have the clout to influence Biden’s decision about whether to leave the race but stands to benefit from being seen as a team player, even if Biden drops out or loses in November. In addition to shrewdly raising his own profile through aggressive advocacy for the president, Newsom’s loyalty could win him favor with party insiders positioned to boost his candidacy if he eventually runs for the Democratic nomination.

“Newsom wants to be seen as a loyal soldier. He doesn’t have any other cards to play,” said Matt Rodriguez, a Democratic consultant who worked on presidential campaigns for Barack Obama, Dick Gephardt and Bill Bradley. “He’s doing the thing he needs to do.”

A spokesperson for Newsom, who has publicly and repeatedly denied any interest in the presidency, said there is no strategy involved in his strong support for the Biden campaign.

“Governor Newsom’s advocacy for the President and his administration reflects a recognition of all that President Biden has accomplished, Governor Newsom’s loyalty to the President and the Vice President, and a clear view of the real danger a second Trump administration would have for California and democracy in America,” Nathan Click said in a text message.

Playing the ‘long game’

When chatter about whether to dump Biden as the nominee exploded last month following his catastrophic performance in the televised debate against Trump, Newsom was among the top tier of potential replacements floated by pundits. The discourse has been dominated by politicians already viewed as strong potential contenders in the 2028 Democratic primary: Vice President Kamala Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and Democratic Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Andy Beshear of Kentucky.

All have stood behind Biden as uncertainty grows over his political future, but the extent to which they’ve defended the president has ranged widely.

Aside from the vice president, none have been a more visible cheerleader than Newsom, who immediately appeared on television to swat down concerns about the debate, rushed to the White House for a damage-control meeting with Democratic governors that some attended remotely, and delivered a pep talk to Biden campaign staff on a conference call.

On a tour through Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire on the president’s behalf over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, Newsom told reporters that calls for Biden to step aside were “not helpful” and he had no doubts about the president’s cognitive health.

“I decided instead of just rolling over and giving up, that I would step up and pick up the fight,” Newsom said at one New Hampshire stop.

Others have charted a more cautious approach, appearing to maintain some distance from Biden without abandoning him. Whitmer, who is a co-chairperson of his reelection campaign, told CNN last week that “it wouldn’t hurt” for Biden to take a cognitive test and later skipped a rally he held in Detroit. Beshear, currently on a business trip in Asia, has reiterated that Biden should take more steps to reassure Americans about his health.

Those officials may have different considerations because of the more conservative politics of their home states. But strategists agreed that Newsom, as governor of the biggest Democratic state in the country, is on a path that holds far more rewards than risks for his career.

Given his relatively short record as a national political figure — and his history as an upstart rattling the establishment on issues such as gay marriage — Newsom has more to prove to Democrats, said Catherine Lew, a political consultant who worked on Bill Clinton’s first presidential campaign in 1992. Stumping for Biden should help Newsom get in good graces of a party establishment that still deeply values loyalty, building relationships that could pay off down the road with endorsements, fundraising and staffing up a campaign.

“The governor obviously has the long game in mind,” Lew said.

Hilary McLean, who worked on California communications for Michael Bloomberg’s 2020 presidential campaign and Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection, said becoming a leading surrogate for Biden has signaled to the public that Newsom is “an important person for Democrats in the United States of America” going forward.

“What people will remember is he was super eloquent, he was a feisty advocate for Democratic ideas,” she said. “They’ll remember how well he did. They’re not going to hold it against him for supporting the president.”

Newsom is not ‘going out on a limb’

The growing defections in Democratic support for Biden, including California’s Rep. Adam Schiff on Wednesday, and the lack of clarity, only a month before the party convention starts on Aug. 19, about whether he will remain the nominee is an unprecedented situation that has paralyzed many officials with indecision, Rodriguez said. He applauded Newsom for not overthinking his response and for sticking by Biden.

If the Democratic Party wants Biden off the presidential ticket, it will take others with more sway to push him out, Rodriguez said. Newsom calling for it would just make him appear “weak and feckless,” he said, especially if Biden sees the campaign through.

“There’s always a risk, even if you’re right, to be the whistleblower,” Rodriguez said. “Why are you going out on a limb if you don’t have leverage?”

By instead remaining a vocal defender of the president through his bleakest moment, Newsom could look like a hero in the event that Biden wins a second term, though that appears increasingly unlikely. And in the meantime, the campaign may continue to elevate Newsom, such as with a prime speaking slot at next month’s Democratic National Convention — which Rodriguez noted was the launching pad for Obama’s presidential aspirations in 2004.

“Politics, especially at the national level, is really about timing,” Rodriguez said. “You do the best you can with what’s in front of you.”

Strategists brushed off the idea that a bruising loss for Biden could hurt his top surrogates by association.

“A lot of this is palace court stuff,” Lew said. “Voters’ memories are short, particularly when there are other pressing, day-to-day, quality-of-life issues.”

Rodriguez said that, if Trump wins another term in November, then no one in the country is better positioned to lead the fight against him than Newsom, who has two years left as governor. That’s likely to be far more relevant in the 2028 primaries than what candidates said about Biden years prior.

“It’s such a lifetime away,” Rodriguez said.