To the US Military: Don’t Surrender the Skies to China

The recent news that the U.S. Air Force may suspend its sixth generation Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program fighter aircraft system due to “intensifying budget pressures” is concerning at a time when America is facing building challenges from the People’s Republic...

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The recent news that the U.S. Air Force may suspend its sixth generation Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program fighter aircraft system due to “intensifying budget pressures” is concerning at a time when America is facing building challenges from the People’s Republic of China.

From implementing everything from drones to stealth aircraft, America has remained at the forefront of the military technological revolution. However, it no longer holds a monopoly on many of these key technologies. (READ MORE: Former Trump Defense Official Makes the Case for Prioritizing Asia Over Europe)

China is progressing rapidly in electronic warfare, cyber, and counter-space systems, and countless other warfighting domains. It is quickly matching and, in some cases, surpassing the United States’ defense capabilities, one reason being its 70 percent jump in research and development spending from 2018 to 2023, according to the World Economic Forum.

China’s Rapid Tech Rise Threatens American Dominance

China is currently building a sixth-generation fighter system with all the new features you’d expect of 21st-century military technology. The system will have greater range, faster acceleration, and more power than any combat aircraft in the U.S. inventory. This is why the U.S. was working on its own sixth-generation “Next Generation Air Dominance” (NGAD) system. It understandably wants to prevent China from getting this vital leg-up in the sky.

Unfortunately, in June the U.S. Air Force said intensifying budget pressures might force it to delay or even abandon the program. This shortsighted move can’t happen. The consequences of letting China win the technology race are too great.

If NGAD is left by the wayside, the U.S. would have to rely on its fleet of F-35 fighter jets, which have a Full Mission-Capable rate of just 30 percent despite the program being just 23 years old – a lousy return on investment. The Air Force has fielded only 183 of the stealthy but aging F-22 Raptors that recently suffered from fatigued turbine engine blades that caused seven Class A mishaps (though no loss of life). (READ MORE: Arkansas AG Claims Temu Is Chinese Spyware)

Years, ago, the late Sen. John McCain decried the F-35’s development as a “scandal and a tragedy with respect to cost, schedule and performance.” After 23 years, the plane will still only come through for America three out of every 10 times — and that’s if there’s enough of them to go around. Reliability concerns prevented the plane from receiving full-rate production approval until March of this year, so F-35 supply and capacity are, without question, concerns too.

We’re Losing Our Technological Edge

Does anyone really believe this broken, patchy approach to policing the skies presents a viable recipe for beating Xi Jinping and his innovative agenda and goals for global preeminence?

As Michael Brown, the former director of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit put it, “We’re losing that [technological] edge, and we’re losing it at a rapid rate…. If we don’t invest, if we don’t have the right talent, if we’re not focused on the fact that this is a tech race, we’re not going to be happy with the outcome.”

The U.S. hasn’t lost the technology race with China quite yet, but a sobering Pentagon report surmises we may find ourselves in second place soon, and the Australian Strategic Policy Institute assesses that China is the world leader in 37 of 44 key technologies. The last thing the U.S. should do in the face of that challenge is turn its back on a new fighter aircraft system.

Even before the news of a potential NGAD suspension or cancelation broke, Chinese military analyst Rick Joe predicted that China would launch its next-generation fighter before America. Some already believe that the country is testing its system. These realities speak to the need for the Air Force to accelerate the program, not slow or stop it. (READ MORE: China Attempts to Intimidate Philippines with ‘Monster’ Coast Guard Ship)

But the Air Force doesn’t have many good options. Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for the F-35 Lightning II used by the Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, and 15 foreign countries, can ride that $2 trillion program for several decades longer if NGAD is abandoned, so it has no incentive to do any more than crank out a pro forma proposal just to keep the Pentagon happy.

The NGAD Program Should Keep Our Military Competitive

In the words of Whit Peters, who served as U.S. Air Force secretary in the Trump administration, “The U.S. government (and to a very limited extent, even the Air Force) can trim many budgetary items in a crunch, but the NGAD – one of the most important measures to protect America’s competitiveness with the Chinese military – should not be one of them.”

NGAD will incorporate five key technologies: Stealth, propulsion, advanced weaponry, thermal management, and digital design. And it won’t fight alone, but alongside at least 1,000 unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft — drones — that will use artificial intelligence and operate autonomously on missions such as surveillance and electronic warfare.

Also worrying is the fate of the advanced “adaptive cycle” engines being developed for NGAD by GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney. If the Air Force opts for smaller and cheaper engines, as Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall hinted, the resulting aircraft would lose many of the performance advantages of the original NGAD design, and America’s aircraft engine industrial base would start to slip if the Pentagon sacrificed the adaptive cycle engine after almost two decades of research and development.

After the worrying early reports about NGAD, in July, Kendall assured the defense community earlier these stories do not accurately reflect Air Force plans. Instead, he stated that, because of the spending caps Congress imposed on the U.S. military last year, the Air Force may need to conduct a slight NGAD redesign. This report from the secretary, while still concerning, is also relieving. Even with the pressure Congress has imposed across the military, it’s imperative that the Air Force specifically protect this new system.

Like Mark Twain, the reports of the death of NGAD may be an exaggeration. But the Air Force must reassess now how it can contribute to America’s 21st-century defense needs, bite the bullet, and ensure NGAD gets the support it needs.

James Durso (@james_durso) is a regular commentator on foreign policy and national security matters. Mr. Durso served in the U.S. Navy for 20 years and has worked in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.

The post To the US Military: Don’t Surrender the Skies to China appeared first on The American Spectator | USA News and Politics.