Gretchen Whitmer is definitely maybe running for president 

The surest sign that a politician wants to run for president is to pen—quickly—an autobiography. Of all possible White House wannabes, only one Democrat has taken the first decisive step: Popular Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. 

Depending on how one views the future, it’s a fortuitous time to publish a political memoir. Despite being overshadowed by the attempt on Donald Trump’s life and President Joe Biden dropping out of the presidential race, Whitmer published this month “True Gretch: What I've Learned About Life, Leadership, and Everything in Between." It’s now a New York Times bestseller, an impressive accomplishment for any first-time author. Plus, she has a sizable campaign war chest but term limits bar her from running for reelection. Why on earth would anyone take the time to write or “write” such a book while still in office—unless it was to test the waters for a future presidential run?    

But what does the data indicate for presidential hopefuls and their memoirs? I’ve crunched the numbers from 1999 to 2024 of the major presidential candidates, and here are some conclusions: 

It doesn’t seem to matter if (or when) a successful candidate writes a book. George W. Bush’s 1999 book, “A Charge to Keep,” arrived eight months before his announcement, while Barack Obama’s “The Audacity of Hope” was published four months beforehand. On the other hand, Joe Biden’s book, “Promise Me, Dad,” was published in late 2017; he declared his candidacy for president almost a year and a half later. 

Donald Trump has several ghostwritten books, but did you know he released a campaign book in late 2015? The hardback entitled, “Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again,” featured a scowling Trump glowering from the cover. However, the mid-2016 paperback underwent a significant vibe change, at least on the cover: it was now called “Great Again: How to Fix Our Crippled America,” featuring a smiling Trump in front of a American flag.  

A book earns candidates free media, which is perhaps the point. When Carly Fiorina announced her 2016 candidacy, her “Rising to the Challenge” arrived on bookshelves the next day. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) took a multi-month  book tour promoting “The Courage To Be Free” prior to announcing his candidacy in 2024. 

Indeed, the data indicates that of the 41 books by major candidates since 1999, almost 40 percent arrived within a half-year of announcing one’s candidacy, or a few months afterwards. 

Most of these pre-presidential books are completely, utterly forgettable. These books are designed to be uncontroversial mush of policy and stories, and many if not all are ghostwritten. This is perhaps most obvious when one compares Obama’s 1995 memoir “Dreams of My Father,” which had a distinct cadence and voice, to his pre-presidential biography, “The Audacity of Hope,” which had more of a, shall we say, community-written tone. 

But mostly, it’s a chewed-over effort to shotgun the candidate into the media. Even the titles run together. Does anyone remember who wrote “Character Makes a Difference” or “American Dreams” or “A Time for Truth?” And consider the counterfactual: Do politicians ever write this sort of book, then decline to run for president? 

Don’t write about events you might regret. A memoir will include folksy stories about overcoming obstacles and proving leadership under stressful situations. You’ll also want to be honest, but not too honest. After all, admitting faults is a good way to inoculate oneself from future criticism. Obama in 1995 wrote about his drug use which came up in the 2008 primaries—but it had been long been part of his narrative.  

Or at least youthful hijinks. Gretch retched all over her high school principal after a football game, she wrote. She also has a shark tattoo.  Whatever. At least she’s not a puppy-killer, like South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R). 

One can make a fair amount of money writing books AND run for president. Whitmer reportedly received a “seven-figure” book deal in 2024. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) received $800,000 for his book in 2015. In 2019-2020, Vice President Kamala Harris received $446,875 for her book, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) received $300,000, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttegieg received $75,000, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) received (in 2015) $27,000.   

It’s financially better to become an officeholder and then sell a memoir. Former Vice President Mike Pence sold his book and received $1.4 million. As of now, no one has come close to Barack and Michelle Obama, who netted a $65 million advance for their books. 

Will Gov. Whitmer’s gamble prove to be a successful one? The hard data on political memoirs unfortunately doesn’t provide a clear answer.   

But if Democrats want to know who is laying the groundwork required to mount a serious candidacy for national office, there’s only one figure committing to the hard spade work. And she hails from a mitten-shaped battleground state. 

Aki Peritz is CIA analyst and current University of Maryland assistant research scientist who has written in the Washington Post, Slate, the Atlantic and other outlets.