ASEAN’s Balancing Act: Adapting To A Potential Second Trump Term And The Rising Of China – Analysis

The election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States in 2016 brought about significant changes in American foreign policy, particularly concerning its approach towards the Asia-Pacific region. Trump's "America First" policy and subsequent withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) introduced uncertainties and reshaped the dynamics of US engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). With the possibility of a second Trump presidency, it is important to examine its potential impact on ASEAN in the context of US-China rivalries and Japan's strategic role. This essay explores these dynamics, highlighting economic, military, and geopolitical implications while providing recommendations for ASEAN to navigate these complexities. 

US Strategic Focus 

Under Trump's "America First" policy, the prioritization of US interests is expected to continue during a second term. This entails renegotiating trade agreements and reducing commitments to multilateralism, potentially leading to a more transactional and unpredictable US foreign policy. For ASEAN, this necessitates adjusting to a less engaged and more self-interested United States, which in turn calls for greater regional self-reliance and diversification of partnership. 

Economic Impacts

Trump's trade policies have had a significant impact on ASEAN economies. The withdrawal from the TPP and the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods disrupted global supply chains, thus affecting export-oriented economies in ASEAN. In a second term, the US may pursue more bilateral trade agreements, with a focus on securing favourable terms for American businesses. This could potentially lead to decreased US investments in ASEAN, prompting these nations to seek alternative economic partners through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). China, positioning itself as a crucial economic partner for ASEAN, may become an increasingly appealing choice as US engagement diminishes. This deepening economic relationship raises concerns about over-reliance on Beijing, even as it strengthens economic ties.

Military Alliances and Security

In terms of military security and alliances, a potential second term of the Trump presidency is anticipated to prioritize the reinforcement of bilateral relationships with select Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries, with particular emphasis on those deemed strategically significant such as Vietnam and the Philippines. While the augmentation of United States (US) arms sales and defence collaborations may result in dependencies, the idiosyncratic nature of Trump's foreign policy could potentially diminish the engagement in multilateral security endeavours, consequently compelling ASEAN to augment its regional security mechanisms. The projected escalation of the US-China rivalry is likely to ensnare ASEAN in the crossfire, as China's audacity in the South China Sea and its expanding military capabilities present formidable challenges to regional stability. Consequently, ASEAN states must astutely navigate their relationships with both superpowers, deliberately eschewing any alignment with either side, all the while striving to maintain their strategic autonomy.

The Role of Japan 

Japan, under the stewardship of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and subsequent leaders, has endeavoured to assume a leadership role in the wake of the vacuum left by the US. Japan's advocacy for the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy underscores the prominence accorded to both a rules-based international order and economic interconnectedness within the region. Japan's endeavours to fortify economic and security alliances with ASEAN assume pronounced significance in offsetting China's influence. Japan's economic partnerships with ASEAN have flourished through investments, trade accords, and development aid. Evidenced by initiatives such as the Japan-ASEAN Technical Cooperation Agreement and the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund, Japan steadfastly demonstrates its commitment to regional development. On a security front, Japan has intensified collaborations with ASEAN nations through joint exercises and capacity-building programs, thereby consolidating its role as a pacifying force within the region.

Regional Dynamics 

ASEAN member nations encounter the intricate task of juggling both US and China relations to maximize their national interests. The exacerbation of the US-China rivalry necessitates ASEAN to bolster its internal coherence and regional mechanisms. Moreover, invigorating ASEAN-centric forums such as the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) serve as conduits for dialogue and conflict resolution. ASEAN's unwavering commitment to impartiality and multilateralism proves indispensable in upholding regional stability. Using initiatives like the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), the region ardently strives to cultivate inclusivity and cooperation. Engaging external partners including Japan, India, and the European Union will enable ASEAN to diversify its strategic options and mitigate its reliance on any solitary power.

Recommendations

1. Enhance Regional Integration: ASEAN should persist in strengthening its internal economic and security integration by prioritizing initiatives such as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and the ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC).

2. Diversify Partnerships: ASEAN must undertake the diversification of its economic and strategic partnerships by engaging with multiple external actors, thereby avoiding over-reliance on any individual power. 

3. Promoting Multilateralism: Strengthening ASEAN-centric platforms and advocating for multilateralism can contribute to stability and provide avenues for conflict resolution within the region. 

4. Utilizing Japan's Role: ASEAN should leverage Japan's strategic initiatives and partnerships to counterbalance China's influence and uphold a rules-based regional order.

Conclusion

A potential second term for President Trump poses both challenges and opportunities for ASEAN. Given the perpetuation of the "America First" policy and the erratic nature of US foreign policy, ASEAN will be compelled to adapt and explore alternative partnerships. China's expanding influence and Japan's strategic significance offer feasible avenues for ASEAN to navigate the intricacies of US-Pacific rivalries. By bolstering regional integration, diversifying partnerships, advocating for multilateralism, and capitalizing on Japan's role, ASEAN can safeguard its strategic autonomy and contribute to maintaining regional stability amid a shifting geopolitical landscape.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's own.

References

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