Series Preview: Tigers at Guardians
This kinda feels like a big series, folks
Welp... the Guardians are playing quite poorly and the Tigers are playing quite well. The Guardians will start their two worst starting pitchers in this four game series and the Tigers will start their two best. Here goes nothing!
The Guardians are 59-39 with a +84 run differential, 3-7 in their last 10 games, 3-4 against Detroit this year, 12th in MLB with a team wRC+ of 103, 22nd in MLB with -4 Baserunning Runs Above Average, fifth in Defensive WAR at 7.4, 26th in starter FIP at 4.62, and first in reliever FIP at 3.18.
The Tigers are 49-51 with a -3 run differential, 7-3 in their last 10 games, with a 4-3 record against Cleveland (three more wins clinches the season series for the Tigers against the Guardians in 2024), 22nd in MLB with a team wRC+ of 93, ninth in Baserunning Runs Above average at 3.4, ninth in Defensive WAR at 2.4, third in starter FIP at 3.59, and 15th in reliever FIP at 3.93.
Matchups:
Game One: Tarik Skubal, LHP (2.56 FIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (4.77 FIP) Monday, July 22nd, 6:40PM
Analysis: Welp, this is one of those David-Goliath matchups where you hope that your cagey vet version of David can keep you in the game against the second-best starting pitcher in the American League. We believe in you, Cookie. Make yourself even more of a legend tonight. The Guardians really need to grind out some at-bats and get Skubal out of the game by the sixth.
Game Two: TBD vs. Xzavion Curry, RHP (5.29 FIP) Tuesday, July 23rd, 6:40PM
Analysis: It’s really not idea to have Carrasco and Curry opening this series, which is another reason why the Guardians desparately need to find a way to upgrade the rotation at this deadline. Hopefully, the Tigers will throw out someone who struggles with the Guardians’ offense featuring Steven Kwan with a 159 wRC+, Jhonkensy Noel 149 wRC+, David Fry 146 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 136 wRC+, Angel Martinez 128 wRC+, Josh Naylor 122 wRC+ and Daniel Schneemann with a 117 wRC+.
Game Three: Jack Flaherty, RHP (3.16 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.35 FIP) Wednesday, July 24th 6:40PM
Analysis: The Guardians struggled with Flaherty prior to the All-Star break, so let’s see what they’ve learned. Meanwhile, Bibee will try to get things on track against the best of the Tigers’ hitters Riley Green with a 142 wRC+, Andy Ibanez 116 wRC+, Justin Henry-Malloy 116 wRC+, Carson Kelly 106 wRC+, Wenceel Perez 102 wRC+ and Matt Vierling with a 102 wRC+.
Game Four: TBD vs. Gavin Williams, RHP (3.26 FIP), Thursday, July 25th, 1:10PM EST
Analysis: Little hiccup for Williams in his last start with Hunter Wendelstadt guessing behind the plate, so hopefully he can get things back on track.
This series could have a fairly large say in whether the Tigers turn their attention more fully to selling in the week ahead. If Cleveland wins or splits the series, I think it’s fairly unlikely the Tigers can make a run at the division. If the Tigers win or sweep, hope is definitely alive. So, let’s find a way, Guardians, and then turn around and trade for Flaherty on the 30th.