Why Kamala Harris has a head start in the race to replace Joe Biden

The incumbent vice president has a number of significant advantages over rival Democrats.

Joe Biden’s decision to step down from the 2024 campaign is yet another significant moment in this year’s US election, following on from the attempted assassination of Donald Trump the previous Saturday, July 13.

Not since 1968, when Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the nomination process, has the incumbent president not stood for his party’s nomination for a second term in office.

Following his announcement, Biden followed up with a second statement proposing his vice president, Kamala Harris, as the presumptive nominee for November’s election. Biden offered his “full support and endorsement” for Harris.

Almost immediately, Democratic Party members praised Biden’s decision to put the good of the country above personal ambition. Harris thanked Biden for his “decades of service to our country”, while the former House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, called Biden one of the most “consequential presidents in American history”.

Messages of thanks to Biden were quickly followed by those of support for Harris, including potential rivals for the candidacy, such as California governor Gavin Newsom, who called Harris: “Tough. Tenacious. Fearless,” and insisted, “No one is better to prosecute the case against Donald Trump’s dark vision.”

Former president Barack Obama praised Biden on his “commitment to the ideals of freedom and equality that this country was founded on”. But, significantly, he failed to explicitly endorse Harris. Instead, Obama wrote that he believed that “the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges”.

This is a position echoed by Pelosi who argued, last week, that should Biden step down from the race that there needed to be “open process” to the nomination. A transparent nomination process would nullify any accusations that party elites had chosen the candidate.

Harris made it clear that she would not rely on Biden’s support to assume the nomination. While thanking Biden for his “extraordinary leadership” and endorsement, she stated: “My intention is to earn and win the nomination.”

With the Democratic convention due to take place in Chicago at the end of August, party lines are already beginning to form around who should be the candidate. While there have been reassurances by Democrat leaders that there will be a “transparent and orderly process” for the party’s presidential nomination, there is nobody currently publicly opposing Harris as the candidate.

As well as being Biden’s vice president, there are a number of other reasons why Harris should be the candidate to face Trump.

Identity matters

Any claims that the Democrats will have of being a progressive, inclusive party will arguably disappear if Harris is passed over for the candidacy. The casting aside of a woman of colour for any other candidate would do irreparable damage to the Democrat’s image.

The US showed that the majority of voters were willing to put a woman in the White House in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. And they twice voted for a man of colour to be president in 2008 and 2012. Women voters and ethnic minorities will prove to be crucial to the outcome of the November election.

Harris has become a vocal champion of woman’s rights – particularly those associated with abortion and birth control since 2022 when the Supreme Court effectively overturned the landmark 1973 Roe V Wade judgment that established a woman’s legal right to an abortion.

Previously the Democrats had targeted Trump as a danger to democracy, following the storming of the capitol by his supporters in January 2021. But after the assassination attempt on July 13, a conscious decision was made to scale that rhetoric down. So targeting female votes will be crucial.

Harris also has the advantage of already having a campaign up and running. Within hours of Biden’s withdrawal, Harris’s campaign staff were reportedly working on gathering further party endorsements.

She was also reportedly raised over US$46 million (£35 million) in the seven hours after Biden’s endorsement. According to legal experts, she is also entitled to inherit the money already raised for the Biden-Harris campaign, which is said to stand at around US$95 million.

Finally, Harris enables the Democratic Party to provide a contrasting optic to that of Trump. In her brief 2020 candidacy campaign, she labelled herself as a prosecutor. Now she can be compared to Trump the felon.

Gone too are the Republican questions of Biden’s age and cognitive abilities. Instead, the focus now turns to Trump who, should be successful in November, will be the oldest president in history at the end of his second term of office.

Much of the wrangling between now and the Democratic convention is likely to concern who will be Harris’ running mate.

Running mate

Top of many lists is Josh Shapiro, the governor of Pennsylvania. Shapiro won the 2022 gubernatorial election by 15% and his presence would do much to win an important swing state. The same might be said of Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, who was reported to have joined a call of Harris for President staff on Sunday.

Other potential running mates include the popular Pete Buttigieg, the secretary for transport, who would gain union support in rust belt states that have seen dramatic industrial decline, and senator and former astronaut Mark Kelley of Arizona, another key state in the battle for the White House.

Andy Beshear, the Democrat governor of traditionally Republican Kentucky would appeal to many Never-Trumpers and disgruntled Republican voters. He has already said he would consider being Harris’s vice president.

Whoever the final partnership is for November, Democrats have the opportunity to dominate the news cycle over the next few weeks in the lead-up to the national convention. Over the past few weeks, the Republicans have had several wins in the PR battle for the November election.

But as long as the Democrats unite behind their candidate quickly, they can make significant progress towards getting their candidate in the White House when Biden’s term ends next January.

Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.