Will ‘Red, White and Royal Blue’ win Emmy election for Best TV Movie?

Predicting Best TV Movie at the Primetime Emmys is often tricky, especially with recent winners ranging widely from “Black Mirror” to “Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square” to “Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers.” This year is especially difficult with none of the five nominees receiving bids in any other categories. But among them, “Red, White and Royal Blue” is arguably the highest-profile contender, a streaming hit on Amazon Prime Video with a sequel on the way. Can the transatlantic rom-com win?

It’s early yet — our Emmy winner predictions center just opened — but from the initial forecasts of Gold Derby users as of this writing, it looks like a three-way race between “Royal Blue,” “Mr. Monk’s Last Case” and “Quiz Lady.” Thus far “Monk” has the lead with support from one of two Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets (many more will chime in over the next several weeks), four out of seven Gold Derby Editors, 10 of our Top 24 Users and 12 of our All-Star Top 24.

Unlike the other nominees, “Monk” already has an awards track record; the original run of the series won star Tony Shalhoub three Emmys for Best Comedy Actor. So on paper it looks strong. However, movies based on past series haven’t had any luck when they’ve been nominated in recent years. “Hello Ladies: The Movie” lost to “Bessie” in 2015. “Deadwood: The Movie” lost to “Black Mirror: Bandersnatch” in 2019. “El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie” and “Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend” lost to “Bad Education” in 2020. And three series continuations — “Ray Donovan: The Movie,” “Reno 911!: The Hunt for QAnon” and “Zoey’s Extraordinary Christmas” — lost to the aforementioned “Rescue Rangers” in 2022.

How about “Quiz Lady,” then? It would be an opportunity to finally award Sandra Oh an Emmy on her 14th try; she’s nominated as a producer of the Hulu original film in addition to starring in it. And it won the Writers Guild Award for Best TV/New Media Motion Picture in addition to the Critics Choice Award for Best TV Movie. Currently it’s predicted to win by one Expert, one Editor, six Top Users and six All-Stars.

That brings us to “Royal Blue,” the same-sex romance that was feted by the GLAAD Media Awards. It was also nominated by the Producers Guild, but so were “Quiz Lady” and “Monk” — all three films lost to “Black Mirror: Beyond the Sea.” Nevertheless, the film’s worldwide popularity might make it the big fish in a relatively small pond. And the May announcement that the film would be getting a sequel gave the 2023 film an extra burst of publicity heading into Emmy season. It’s now predicted to win by two Editors, eight Top Users and six All-Stars. Stay tuned to our odds to see how this race develops as more pundits chime in.

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