Why are talent evaluators so divided on Phillies prospect Justin Crawford?

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Phillies outfield prospect and former first-round pick Justin Crawford had a successful first weekend in Double-A, displaying the explosive parts of his game that make his ceiling as a player exciting.

The left-handed hitter went 3-for-8 with two doubles, two walks and two stolen bases on Friday and Saturday in his first two games for Reading. He put his speed on display on the bases and on defense in center field while making a strong first impression at his introduction to the Eastern League.

Crawford’s recent promotion, coming on the heels of the upcoming Major League Baseball trade deadline on July 30, marks a fitting time to reflect on the 20-year-old’s status as a prospect in the third year of his career. He’s hitting .303 with six home runs, 29 steals and a .797 OPS in 72 minor-league games. He’s flashed his outlier skills while also showing what the flaws in his game are.

The son of former All-Star outfielder Carl Crawford, Justin Crawford was taken with the 17th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft out of high school in Las Vegas. He’s advanced in each of his minor-league seasons so far, starting this year at High-A Jersey Shore before hitting Reading. Crawford has impact speed that shows itself in his stolen base totals and his outfield defense. He has plus bat-to-ball skills and got stronger for the 2024 season. That sounds like the making of a future big-league regular in center field, if not better.

But there’s a wide variance in the outlook on Crawford depending upon what outlet you look at.

• MLB Pipeline has Crawford ranked as the third-best Phillies prospect, and the No. 54 overall prospect in baseball.

• Just Baseball‘s Aram Leighton has four Phillies on his latest countdown of the top 100 prospects in the sport, none of whom are Crawford.

• Baseball America has Crawford ranked as the No. 37 prospect in baseball.

So what gives? Crawford’s main issue is how he tends to hit the ball of the bat. He’s prone to hitting the ball on the ground with a swing that can be too steep, an issue that resulted in him falling to No. 7 in the most recent Phillies Nation top prospect list.

Crawford can do damage and show some of the raw power he possesses on low pitches when he catches a ball on the upstroke, but it’s largely resulted in his batted balls hitting the turf. It’s something that he’s made improvements on; after posting a nearly 70% groundball rate last year, he’s lowered it to 60% on the season. It’s a better figure, but still a high one.

If the young outfielder can continue to turn more grounders into live drives in the gap, he can certainly develop himself into a productive major leaguer. But if that issue isn’t corrected — or at least continued to be improved upon — it could be a detriment as he faces better competition on the mound and in the field. It’s something the Phillies and other clubs will have to weigh as the trade deadline nears.

Crawford would still likely help net the Phillies a real contributor at the deadline due to his potential and the year he’s having. Depending how Philadelphia feels about his long-term fit and outlook, the team could decide to include him in a deal. Exactly what kind of deal would depend on how other teams feel about Crawford’s ability to keep making strides at the plate.

No matter what happens later this month, Crawford is still a talented player with a real path to the majors. A few more seasons of improvement could lift him to even greater heights.

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