Current and lagged associations of meteorological variables and Aedes mosquito indices with dengue incidence in the Philippines

by Estrella I. Cruz, Ferdinand V. Salazar, Ariza Minelle A. Aguila, Mary Vinessa Villaruel-Jagmis, Jennifer Ramos, Richard E. Paul

Dengue is an increasing health burden that has spread throughout the tropics and sub-tropics. There is currently no effective vaccine and control is only possible through integrated vector management. Early warning systems (EWS) to alert potential dengue outbreaks are currently being explored but despite showing promise are yet to come to fruition. This study addresses the association of meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue incidences and assesses the added value of additionally using mosquito indices for predicting dengue incidences.

Entomological surveys were carried out monthly for 14 months in six sites spread across three environmentally different cities of the Philippines. Meteorological and dengue data were acquired. Non-linear generalized additive models were fitted to test associations of the meteorological variables with both mosquito indices and dengue cases. Rain and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) contributed most to explaining the variation in both mosquito indices and number of dengue cases. DTR and minimum temperature also explained variation in dengue cases occurring one and two months later and may offer potentially useful variables for an EWS. The number of adult mosquitoes did associate with the number of dengue cases, but contributed no additional value to meteorological variables for explaining variation in dengue cases.

The use of meteorological variables to predict future risk of dengue holds promise. The lack of added value of using mosquito indices confirms several previous studies and given the onerous nature of obtaining such information, more effort should be placed on improving meteorological information at a finer scale to evaluate efficacy in early warning of dengue outbreaks.