Saoirse Ronan could win her 1st Oscar … but for which movie?

Saoirse Ronan is still only 30-years-old, but she’s already a four-time Oscar nominee stretching back all the way to her breakthrough performance in 2007’s “Atonement,” for which she earned her very first bid as a teenager. Almost two decades later, she could finally collect a trophy on her fifth try. She’s one of the top contenders for Best Actress, according to the early predictions of Gold Derby users. But which film will she win for?

At the moment her better bet looks like “Blitz,” director Steve McQueen‘s upcoming film about the German bombing campaign against the UK during World War II. It has awards-friendly subject matter (the Second World War is a popular era for prestige filmmaking), and it boasts a filmmaker who has directed an Oscar-winning performance in the past (Lupita Nyong’o in “12 Years a Slave”). The film hasn’t been seen by the press or general audiences yet, but it looks good on paper, and Ronan is currently backed for the win by one Expert journalist, four Gold Derby Editors, five of our Top 24 Users and four All-Star Users. Overall, she ranks third in our odds for that film.

But she’s also in our top 10 for another film. In “The Outrun,” she plays a young woman fresh out of rehab, where she was treated for alcoholism. Unlike “Blitz,” “The Outrun” is a known quantity, having screened earlier this year at the Sundance and Berlin Film Festivals. Based on early reviews it holds a generally positive 69 score on MetaCritic, with journalists calling Ronan’s performance “committed,” “tremendous” and “gripping.” This film places Ronan ninth in our odds with support from two Experts and two Editors.

Having multiple films in the awards conversation can be a blessing or a curse, but it worked out pretty well for Kate Winslet. In 2008 she starred in both “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader.” She was campaigned as a lead actress for the former and a supporting actress for the latter so as not to split her own votes. But Oscar voters went rogue, nominating her for Best Actress for “The Reader” and casting aside her performance in “Revolutionary Road.” She was only 33-years-old at the time, but that was already her sixth Oscar nom, and she ended up winning it.

Ronan’s career has followed a similar path. Both women first achieved prominence as teenagers and racked up multiple Oscar noms at a young age. Now Ronan could complete her journey to Oscar in a similar way; “Blitz,” like “The Reader,” is set during World War II. Of course, it’s too early to say for sure which film — if either — is really her ticket to awards glory. Time will tell.

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