Guardians Mid-Season Grades Pt. 2
This part will cover the rest of the team — the pitchers, plus a managerial grade
A couple weeks ago, I put together the first of this two-part analysis on my first half grades for the Cleveland Guardians. That one covered the individual performances from most of our position players and lineup regulars. This time through, however, I will be covering the pitching staff’s and manager Stephen Vogt’s grades.
The pitching staff’s contributions to the team’s success during the first 81 were very one-sided, the way I see it. Riddled with injuries and subpar performances so far this year, it’s clear that the rotation was the weakest link on the team during its historic first-half run. It was super unfortunate to see Shane Bieber get Tommy John surgery after he had a more-than spectacular first two starts on the season.
However, the bullpen has been the definition of shut-down pitching since the season began. Even without Trevor Stephan, the Guardians have put together a Death Row of relievers to fill up their bullpen, with many more possible contributors in Columbus.
Lastly, Stephen Vogt has managed the season to near perfection in the first half. Beyond some rookie mistakes that are expected to happen, he kept this clubhouse in a positive and competitive mindset, and I don’t think he gets enough credit for this team’s success so far. More about that later, though. Let’s get into these grades!
(Note: As I did with the first part of this analysis, I will be grading only the pitchers who have pitched a certain number of innings. For starting pitchers, the benchmark will be at least 75.2 IP, and for relief pitchers, it will be 23.2 IP. So, guys like Eli Morgan and Gavin Williams, who both have spent extensive time on the IL, won’t be included for there is not enough evidence to truly grade them yet.)
(Also, if an asterisk: *, is on a stat, that means that this stat for the player that has it is the leader of the groups that I grade. The stat leaders will be separated between the rotation and bullpen, so if you see an asterisk for two of the same stats, just know that it’s for their respective departments.)
Starting Rotation
RHP Tanner Bibee — B
Tanner is definitely having a bit of regression from his stellar rookie performance last year. He was regarded as the next best pitcher we have after Shane Bieber so unfortunately got sidelined for the season, so there were some huge shoes to fill like he did last year. Although Tanner has certainly not been bad, his performance is still closer to the mean than it was last year. In 110.2 IP*, Tanner posts a 3.58 ERA with a 3.35 FIP*, a 1.11 WHIP*, 10.25 K/9* and 2.44 BB/9*. He also posts a 2.3 WAR*, being the only one in the rotation to have at least 1 whole win above replacement. Because the rotation has been so depleted, and we are not used to this type of output from our starting pitchers, this seems very under par. That being said, if this were any other year where the pitching factory is churning out stud starting pitchers like it was nothing, this would be a lot more palatable for our privileged eyes.
RHP Ben Lively — B
For someone who was acquired as almost an afterthought, Ben Lively stepped up in a huge way — and then some. He was without a doubt our best starting pitcher for most of the first 81. Right now, his overall line is 93.1 IP, 3.57 ERA*, with a 1.19 WHIP and 4.39 FIP. He most definitely has been one of the most pleasant surprises this year, and I am very happy we made this signing during the off-season. I considered giving him a B+ because of expectation vs. reality. But given how closely similar many of his numbers seem to be to Bibee, I think it is only fair I grant him a B as well.
RHP Triston McKenzie — D
Triston has been a confusing case to most this year. Before the season started, it was revealed that the former top pitching prospect had a torn ligament in his elbow, and opted to not get season-ending surgery and pitch through the injury. Many have speculated if things would be better or worse off with him getting the surgery, now and in the future. Would the Guardians rotation have a better option lying in AAA Columbus? Would an elbow repair surgery have helped Triston get back to where he was in 2022 when he returns? Who knows. Whether this was the right move or not, it is clear that Doctor Sticks has had such a rough go of things over the last two seasons. In 75.2 IP this year, Triston posted a 5.11 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 6.44 FIP and 5.83 BB/9. Things got so bad for him that he was one of two mainstay pitchers sent down to Columbus to try and work on their mechanics more. It just hasn’t been great all-around, and all we can hope for is for Sticks to reset and do what he can to help the team over the rest of the season.
LHP Logan Allen — D+
Logan Allen was the second in the aforementioned pair of pitchers to be sent down to AAA to work on their game. He’s been up and down for the majority of his career, and it has been no different in his start to the season. In 87.1 IP, LTA has an ERA of 5.67, a 1.55 WHIP, a 5.43 FIP (4.57 xFIP for what it’s worth), and a 10.31 H/9. That H/9 is 5th worst in the league among starting pitchers who’ve thrown at least 80 innings. The majority of his starts have went at least 5 innings with at most 3 earned runs, but he’s been the culprit of a few implosions as well. Overall, he’s been very below average but I do think he gets more flack than I tend to believe he deserves. I’m sure he’s going to have a few more starts in C-Bus where he will continue to work on limiting the hits and walks, but for now, I think this rating is pretty fair.
RHP Carlos Carrasco — C-
Seeing Cookie come back was a fun sight to see. And though he may not have been the greatest, without him we’d be forced to trust much less ready and able options in the Guardians’ system. I think that alone counts for something. He’s taken a step up from his last season in New York, but he still isn’t near average in terms of skill. With a 5.02 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 4.77 FIP, he has definitely felt the effects of aging. But I’m led to believe that he is doing the most he can, which again counts for something to me. So, I’m willing to give him a slight bump in his grade.
Bullpen
RHP-CL Emmanuel Clase — A+
Like Jose Ramirez in the first part of this analysis, this is the most obvious grade out of the whole pitching staff. Last year, Emmanuel struggled a lot. His 12 blown saves tripled the 4 he gave up in 2022. It just seemed like he couldn’t pitch a single inning without letting a runner get on base. But this year, it seems like the exact opposite. Emmanuel’s WHIP is down half of a whole number. Last year it was 1.16, and this year, it is .66*, the lowest of his career. Of course, his ERA would be low as ever too, coming in at .79*. With a FIP of 2.18 and a .156 opp. average, there is no guessing why he is charging right at Cody Allen’s record of career saves with Cleveland. He is second in the league in saves right now at 29*, and barring a trade, any sudden regression or serious injuries, he is on pace to break that record this year. Right now, he is tied for second with Bob Wickman at 139, with Cody Allen’s record of 149 not too far off to beat. It is incredible what we are seeing right before our eyes with Emmanuel.
RHP-SU Hunter Gaddis — A+
Hunter was another super easy decision for me. Since the start of his career in late 2022, Gaddis has been desperately trying to find where he fits into the Guardians’ pitching staff. Well, to say that he has certainly found that spot this year would be an understatement. When the Guardians needed a new setup man to replace Trevor Stephan who is out for the season, Gaddis rose to the occasion and turned into the second most reliable relief pitcher on the squad. He is one of my favorite stories, and I came around to have hope in him last year (I was there for his horrific debut in 2022 and my old judgmental self hated him for it). Now, he has exceeded all my expectations and is one of my favorite players here (yes I know, what a turnaround). This year, Hunter in 46.1 IP* owns a 1.17 ERA, .73 WHIP and a 2.12 FIP*. He has been extraordinarily brilliant throughout his stint as one of the setup pitchers in this bullpen.
RHP-SU Cade Smith — A+
I know I’m handing out A+’s left and right, but these three guys deserve it, especially Cade who came out of nowhere and started mowing down every hitter in sight. He improved his command this year from where it was in the minors, putting up a 1.99 BB/9 as opposed to 4.20 last year in Columbus. His K/9 is among the league bullpen leaders at 12.71*, and he has an honest 2.18 ERA. He has under 1 WHIP at .95, his FIP is 1.48*, and opposing hitters are batting .202 against him. He, along with Gaddis and Clase, has been ridiculous this year.
LHP-MR Tim Herrin — A
Off the heels of a not-so-great rookie showing, I thought Tim would have been in the minors at the start of the season, or at most in the Major League bullpen with a pretty light workload. Those speculations of mine were quickly shut up because the improvements he made over the off-season have proved to be monumental. Herrin improved on last season’s ERA by over 4 whole earned runs. Last year, it was 5.53, and this year it is 1.36. He allows just a tiny bit less than one hit/walk an inning (.98 WHIP), and his FIP is down exactly one whole number (2.87). He did see a bit of regression in the BB/9 category (4.31 as opposed to last year’s 3.90), but I’m sure that’s an amazing trade-off for what he gets in these other stats. With Herrin, he can easily take a lot of the workload off the Guardians’ other lefty, Sam Hentges.
LHP-MR Sam Hentges — B+
Speaking of which, let’s grade Sam while we’re on the topic. Definitely not one of the biggest highlights in the bullpen, but that doesn’t at all discredit his huge contribution to its success so far this season. Like I said, Sam had a lot of the workload taken off of him with Herrin’s emergence. Since there’s two lefties now, Hentges would definitely be much less fatigued as the season goes on. So far this season, the Minnesota native posts a 3.04 ERA, a .97 WHIP and a 3.15 FIP. His per-9’s are 10.27 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, and 6.85 H/9. He’s doing really good when he’s on the field, and that’s really all I have to say about him!
RHP-MR Scott Barlow — B
Barlow was our return from the Padres when we shipped Enyel De Los Santos over to San Diego during the off-season. And this is turning out to be a pretty solid win of a trade. Scotty B definitely has the occasional mediocre game, but since he got past the first month or two of the season, those games have become less and less frequent. He managed to get his ERA down to 3.43 after it spiked to 4.82 by April 19th. His FIP is 3.50 but he does allow 1.37 WHIP. He K’s a lot of batters, posting a 12.58 K/9, but the trade-off is that his BB/9 is up a ton (5.26) and his H/9 are just average (7.09). I would have given Scott a B+ here, but I think that BB/9 does bring him down a bit because of how much the pitching staff as a whole is struggling with walking batters.
RHP-MR Nick Sandlin — B+
The Sandman took up his usual role of middle relief again this year, which he is pretty solid at. He’s good with runners on base/inherited runners, as he allows just a .167 average in that type of situation. Overall, however, Nick posts a 3.50 ERA, with a 1.03 WHIP and 4.34 FIP. His per-9’s are just above the mean, but that is fine for someone with his role. I think giving him a B+ would be pretty fair, considering the curve I’ve set for the bullpen.
RHP-LR Pedro Avila — A-
Okay, this grade might be a bit generous to the reader, but I think Pedro deserves an A- because of how much length he has provided this pitching staff with. For a staff that has been utterly depleted in the rotation, the reliance the team has had on its outstanding bullpen is too great for it to survive a whole season. But what this team wasn’t prepared for was how much of the workload Avila took up by pitching fairly efficient baseball for a long period of time. Before the season started, I was very concerned whether or not we’d find a real long relief pitcher, and for a bit there we didn’t have it until we traded with the Padres yet again for this reliable innings eater. His stat line here isn’t extremely good, but it’s very solid nonetheless. After he got traded here on the 17th of April, Pedro has thrown for a 3.30 ERA, a 3.83 FIP and a 1.28 WHIP. I think that, combined with the fact that he logs 1.8 innings a game*, gives him enough of an argument to be granted an A- grade. Honestly, I can’t even imagine what the bullpen would be like if we didn’t trade for him.
Manager Stephen Vogt — A+
Well, here is the last grade I am giving out, and this one is probably the most obvious of them all. Stephen Vogt deserves an A+ for how well he’s managed this clubhouse to one of the best starts to a season in its 124-year history. Of course, he has made some rookie mistakes along the way, mostly in bullpen management, but I am not going to hold that or anything else like that against him, as most of what he’s failing at (if at all) will only be fixed as he gains more experience. That being said, this slump the Guardians are in is probably the biggest test he’s faced so far. Getting into the dog days of the summer and trying to keep spirits high is one of the toughest jobs a manager can face. This is the point of the season where players’ mental toughness is tested the most, and I am excited to see how Vogter tries to get this team out of the rut it’s in right now. But all in all, I think that Vogt has done a fantastic job and fully deserves his A+ marking.
Thank you guys so much for reading this two-part series! Sorry for this coming up a couple weeks later, but I’m happy I got this done for you guys. Give me your thoughts down below, and just let me know what I may have missed or what you disagree with!