Box office preview: Marvel’s ‘Deadpool and Wolverine’ will claw its way to new R-rated records
After another great summer blockbuster this past weekend, we get one of the most anticipated movies of the year, as well as the first from Marvel Studios since last December. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you probably know that Marvel and Disney’s “Deadpool and Wolverine” brings together the popular characters played by Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman — not for the first time, mind you. Everyone involved with this new Marvel movie, including director Shawn Levy, is probably hoping that everyone has forgotten about 2009’s “X-Men Origins: Wolverine,” and thankfully, they probably have.
Despite the presence of Jackman’s Wolverine, this is very much the third film in the “X-Men” sub-franchise that began with 2016’s “Deadpool,” which kicked off a successful run of R-rated superhero movies not necessarily meant for children. That movie and the sequel for Reynolds’ Merc with a Mouth both grossed more than $300 million domestically, and Reynolds has generally had more hits outside his appearances as Deadpool than Jackman has.
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Earlier this summer, Reynolds appeared in John Krasinski‘s “IF,” which grossed more than $100 million, and then a few years back, he starred in the Levy-directed “Free Guy,” which grossed $121.6 million domestically. In between, he was in three streaming movies, including Levy’s “The Adam Project.” Besides two musicals – “The Greatest Showman” in 2017 and 2012’s “Les Miserables” – Jackman has done many smaller, independent films when not playing Wolverine.
A few comparisons to consider…
5/1/09 – “X-Men Origins: Wolverine” $85.1m (open), $179.9m (domestic), $374.8m (worldwide)
2/12/16 – “Deadpool” $132.4m (o), $363m (d), $782m (w)
5/18/18 – “Deadpool 2” $125.5m (o), $324.6m (d), $786.4m (w)
7/26/13 – “The Wolverine” $53.1m (o), $132.6m (d), $416.5m (w)
3/3/17 – “Logan” $88.4m (o), $226.3m (d), $614.2m (w)
10/2/19 – “Joker” $96.2m (o), $335.5m (d), $1.06b (w)
One big hurdle the movie faces is that it’s the first Marvel Studios movie released under a well-deserved R-rating, which might limit the movie from achieving the huge blockbuster opening of many of Marvel’s previous sequels. Even so, we do have to remember that both “Deadpool” movies were released with an R-rating, as was Hugh Jackman‘s “Logan” in 2017. Two years after that, Joaquin Phoenix‘s Oscar-winning turn in “Joker” was also hugely successful, as the first R-rated movie to hit a billion worldwide. The truth is that the R-rated Wolverine fare did better than the PG-13 movies, even though, like “Logan,” “The Wolverine” was also directed by two-time Oscar nominee, James Mangold.
More importantly, this is the very first MCU movie since 2023’s “The Marvels,” promising tons of cameos, mostly from the “X-Men” world set up by the 20th Century Fox movies, which were mostly successful, particularly under (now-cancelled) director Bryan Singer. There may still be a bit of pushback against Marvel over some of the decisions made in recent years, including all the shows made for Disney+, but Marvel Studios head Kevin Feige will certainly be hoping that bringing the X-Men further into the MCU will turn things around and get fans back onboard.
“Deadpool and Wolverine” was delayed due to the actors and writers strikes last year, but Marvel and Disney gave up its normal May opening slot to give this more time to finish and market, which surely will pay off. Disney and Marvel have been rolling this one out as if it were a “Star Wars” movie, only showing the first 40 minutes to most movie journalists until Monday’s premiere. Reviews have been generally positive with the movie currently at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Honestly, if there’s any movie this year destined for a rare $200 million plus opening, “Deadpool and Wolverine” would definitely be it, though I’m going to go slightly lower in the $180 to $190 million range, the same as 2022’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” which was almost the exact same runtime, too. But no one should be surprised if it exceeds expectations, because the hype for the movie seems to be real, and we’re due for another $200 million opener.
Also, Bleecker Street is going with the counter-programming of “The Fabulous Four,” another comedy featuring veteran actors, in this case, Oscar winner Susan Sarandon, Oscar nominee Bette Midler, and Emmy winners Megan Mullally (“Will and Grace”), and Sheryl Lee Ralph from “Abbott Elementary.” Directed by Jocelyn Moorhouse, this R-rated comedy has been advertising a lot during daytime television, because it’s directly targeting older women with its story of four friends who reunite for a destination wedding in Key West, Florida.
We’ve seen similar movies quite a lot in recent years, including last year’s “80 for Brady,” which had a $12.7 million opening, and the “Book Club” sequel, but also just a few short months back with “Summer Camp,” which bombed. Like those movies, the big draw for “The Fabulous Four” will be the four actors, since neither Sarandon and Midler have appeared in much theatrically in recent years. This could help “The Fabulous Four” open with $2 to $3 million to end up in the bottom half of the Top 10, but don’t expect critics to be friendly towards it.
Focus Features is releasing the Sundance hit, Sean Wang‘s coming-of-age dramedy “DÌDI (弟弟),” starring newcomer Izaac Wang with Chinese-American legend Joan Chen (“Lust, Caution”), into five theaters in New York and L.A. this weekend, a slow roll-out until its August 16 nationwide release. The movie has received great reviews, although it’s facing potentially one of the biggest movies of the summer.
Check back on Sunday to see if and how many records “Deadpool and Wolverine” breaks and sets.
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