Even Chances For Harris And Trump In US Presidential Election – Analysis

Opinion polls indicate fluctuating fortunes, but the winner will be decided by a few competitive States.

Opinion polls conducted by reputed agencies in the US indicate a neck and neck race between the presumptive Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and her Republican rival Donald Trump in the US Presidential election to be held in November. 

Harris had a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump as per the Reuters/Ipsos poll, results of which were out on July 23.

In this poll, Harris got 44% support, and Trump 42%.

Reuters further said that 56% of registered voters agreed with the statement that Harris was "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges," compared to 49% who said the same of Trump.

In an earlier poll on July 15-16, both Harris and Trump got 44%. In a July 1-2 poll, Trump had led by one percentage.

The CNN/SSRS poll, reported on July 24, Harris was trailing by 3 percentage points, with 46% support while Trump had 49% support.

Adding a word of caution about going by these opinion polls, Reuters said that nationwide surveys do give important signals of peoples' support for candidates, but in the final analysis, a handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the US Electoral College, which ultimately decides who wins a Presidential election.

The frequently-taken opinion polls tend to show fluctuating fortunes. But the inescapable takeaway from the opinion surveys on the present election is that underdog Harris has a fighting chance of beating veteran Trump in the November election.

Harris, the first Black woman to contest the US Presidency, is expected to be nominated as the Democratic Party's candidate in the Party's convention in the first week of August.

Analysis of CNN poll

The poll found that Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are broadly enthusiastic about Harris and willing to coalesce around her as the presumptive nominee.

About 75% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (76%) say the Democratic Party should nominate Harris as its candidate for President, with only about 6% expressing support for another person.

Democratic party voters express broadly positive views about Harris, with 75% or more saying that she is someone they'd be "proud to have as President (86%)". These agree with her on issues that matter most (84%). According to then she represents the future of the Democratic Party (83%) and will unite the country and not divide it (77%).She has a good chance of beating Trump (75%), the respondents say.

In a sign of the current intra-party unity around Harris, there are relatively few sharp demographic divides in Democratic-aligned voters' assessments.

Ideological divisions within the Democratic Party are also relatively muted, with both 88% of self-described liberals and 81% of self-described moderates or conservatives saying that they think Harris agrees with them on the most important issues.

Harris also hangs on to 95% of those who earlier said they supported Biden. She has emerged as a uniting force.

The survey found voters widely supportive of both President Biden's decision to step aside from the context and also his decision to remain in office through the end of his term.

Cleavages

However, Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters are closely split over whether the next nominee should continue Biden's policies (53%) or take the country in a new direction (47%).

A desire for a new direction is largely concentrated among younger voters and voters of colour among Democrats and Democratic-leaning people. voters older than 65 (72%), White voters (62%) and those with college degrees (58%) largely want Harris to follow in Biden's footsteps.

But six in 10 voters of colour and voters younger than 45 say they're looking for a new direction on policy.

Woman VP?

Only 11% say it's extremely important she pick a male running mate, with more than half saying that isn't at all an important factor. In other words.Democrats therefore appear to be alright with an all-women Presidential set up.

Harris's biggest strengths and her biggest weaknesses have their roots in her background as a California prosecutor, says David Leonhardt inNew York Times.

"Harris spent more than a quarter-century as a local and state prosecutor, and she compiled an accomplished record — on crime reduction, consumer protection and more. Prosecutors succeed by making more persuasive arguments than their opponents in a combative setting. So it makes sense that Harris's signature moments as a national figure have occurred in similar settings," Leonhardt observes.

"In the Senate, she developed a reputation as a sharp questioner of witnesses, including Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominees. During the 2020 presidential campaign, she won her debate against Vice President Mike Pence, polls showed."

"In a future debate against Trump, Harris seems like a much stronger option than Biden — and probably stronger than some other potential Democratic nominees. It's easy to imagine her hammering Trump for his lawless approach to the presidency," Leonhardt says.

In fact, Harris had told the public that the Presidential battle is going to be a "law upholder and a convicted felon."

But Harris's shortcoming is that has repeatedly struggled to lay out her vision for the country and explain to voters how she would improve their lives. This is evident in her 2019 book "The Truths We Hold," Leonhardt says.

There were platitudes aplenty, and actual proposals for betterment of the people precious little, he comments. Perhaps it was the paucity of concrete proposals in her presentation which resulted in her withdrawal from the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination contest.

"She can seem more comfortable speaking the language of elite liberalism than making the arguments that help Democrats win tough races — like emphasizing pocketbook issues, questioning global trade and praising border security," Leonhardt points out.

Harris has the disadvantage of being more Left than Biden's favouring "Medicare for All" he adds. But her tough line of crime should go down well with the electorate.

Jared Mondschein from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney outlines the potential challenges that lay ahead for Harris in an article inConversation.

Points in support of her are: To this day, Harris has never lost a general election, including her Senate run in 2017. She was the second-ever Black woman elected to the US Senate.

"In the Senate, she was appointed to the homeland security and intelligence committees and later the Senate Judiciary Committee, which gave her a platform to grill Trump's judicial nominees. Whether it be questioning then-Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh on whether the government had ever made laws related to the male body, or the Mueller investigation's of the Trump campaign's collusion with Russia, Harris became known for using her prosecutorial experience to advance Democratic priorities," Mondschein recalled.

Biden had made positive comments about pro-segregation politicians with whom he had served in his 36 years in the US Senate. Criticising him for this Harris said: "You also worked with them to oppose bussing. And, you know, there was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bussed to school every day. And that little girl was me."

Harris is strong point is her debating abilities. she deployed these against then Vice President Mike Pence in their 2020 debate,Mondschein points out.

As Vice President, she was a tie breaker in the Senate on key legislation supported by Biden. But outside of her Senatorial duties, she had the tough job of controlling immigration. This issue is still a challenge for her.

"She has been widely criticised for her ineffective efforts trying to address the root causes of the record-breaking immigration influx into the United States." Mondschein says.

However, she found more success in championing some politico-social causes like abortion, clashing with Biden, who as a practising Catholic, was uncomfortable with abortion.

"Harris in many ways led the administration's efforts on the topic after the Supreme Court in 2022 overturned the Roe v. Wade ruling that had legalised abortion for decades beforehand," Mondschein recalls.

Past Fate of VPs

In the past 150 years only Biden, George H.W. Bush, and Richard Nixon rose directly from Vice Presidency to the Presidency through an election. Seventeen Vice Presidents have sought the Presidency through an election, but only five have succeeded. It remains to be seen if Harris joins the ranks of the successful few.