With QB Caleb Williams on a rookie deal, the time is now for the Bears to strike

The Packers are getting ready to pay quarterback Jordan Love more this season than the Bears owe Caleb Williams for the next four years.

For the Packers, making the investment is a good problem to have. For the Bears, though, it’s an opportunity.

Only three teams in the NFL are paying less for quarterbacks than this year’s Bears. It figures to stay that way, too — Williams is making $39 million over his four-year rookie contract and backup Tyson Bagent is in Year 2 of a three-year deal worth only $2.7 million.

That has left a lot of money for general manager Ryan Poles to spend elsewhere.

“When you get a guy on a rookie contract,” coach Matt Eberflus said Thursday, “it's a way you could really do a good job of having that extra money to be able to spend it elsewhere.”

Trading for receiver Keenan Allen and taking on his $23.1 million salary cap hit from the Chargers was a luxury the Bears could afford because of their quarterback’s cost certainty. So was signing running back D’Andre Swift and tight end Gerald Everett.

The Bears gave Jaylon Johnson the third-richest contract signed by a cornerback this year and safety Kevin Byard the fifth-largest safety contract, by average annual value.

Allen and Moore are already the most accomplished wide receiver duo ever paired with a rookie quarterback chosen first overall.

“I don't think it's ever happened in the NFL, a guy comes into a situation like that, being No. 1 overall,” Everett said.

If Williams is who the Bears hope he can be, the team will have four years’ worth of financial flexibility — five, if they pick up a team option — to build a championship team around him.

Building around a rookie quarterback is great, in theory.

“I think it depends on your whole roster,” Eberflus said. “It’s hard for a quarterback to be successful if he has bad protection, doesn’t have a lot of skill to throw to, the team is down in terms of the roster configuration at that time. So, I just think it all plays in.”

What Eberflus described certainly fits Mitch Trubisky’s first season and Justin Fields’ first three. Ensuring Williams was given a better supporting cast took planning — Poles spent more than $93 million in dead salary cap space two years ago to reset the Bears books — and a trade that sets up to be one of the most deft in recent NFL history. The Bears were in position to draft Williams first overall because the Panthers, with whom Poles had dealt the year prior, finished with the worst record in the NFL.

The 2023 Bears finished closer to the first wild card playoff participant than to the Panthers, the worst team in the NFL. Their 2024 roster reflects that.

The Bears aren’t the first team to try to build around a rookie quarterback’s salary. When Russell Wilson was drafted in 2012 and became the Seahawks’ surprise starter, it opened the window for Seattle to spend. After Wilson’s first season, the Seahawks traded for receiver Percy Harvin and made him the highest-paid player in franchise history.

In the four years of Wilson’s rookie contract, the Seahawks went to the playoffs four times and the Super Bowl twice, winning it at the end of the 2013 season.

Copycats followed, some successfully.

Since 2018, four quarterbacks still playing on their rookie contracts have reached the Super Bowl. All four lost the game: the 49ers’ Brock Purdy, the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, the Bengals’ Joe Burrow and the Rams’ Jared Goff.

Only three quarterbacks won those six Super Bowls, though: the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes three times; Tom Brady once each with the Patriots and the Buccaneers; and the Rams' Matthew Stafford. It’s good to have a quarterback on an affordable rookie deal, but it’s better to have a franchise quarterback at any cost.

The Bears have struggled in both categories. The last quarterback they drafted who received a multi-year contract extension from the team was Jim Harbaugh, whom they picked in 1987. The last one to receive a one-year extension was Kyle Orton, who was drafted in 2005 — and the Bears traded him for Jay Cutler before the contract expired.

The Packers, of course, have been set at quarterback since 1992 — which spans the lifetime of all but three players on the Bears roster. Brett Favre begat Aaron Rodgers, who begat Love.

The same Love is “holding in” at practice while his representatives negotiate a contract to replace the $11 million he was set to make this season. In the second half of last season, he was one of the best quarterbacks in football. A new deal will pay him accordingly for years.

The price tag will be enormous, likely as much as $50 million per year. With the salary cap spiking each offseason, that’s become the cost of doing business for quarterbacks — the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow are tied for the league lead in average annual salary, at $55 million.

By the time Williams is eligible for an extension, $55 million will look like a bargain. The Bears have years before they have to worry about it, though — and a chance, until then, to strike.