Venezuela election: Maduro’s regime is crumbling, but he will not give up without a fight

Venezuela is poised for a historic vote on Sunday, July 28 that could bring the 11-year reign of the country’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, to an end – and with it, the widespread sense of hopelessness that has sparked a mass exodus from the country.

Of all the elections taking place around the world in 2024, the outcome of Venezuela’s is one of the hardest to predict. This is not because an opposition win is in question – they are ahead in the polls by a significant margin. Rather, it is because dictators do not relinquish power without a fight.

Maduro has strongly signalled his determination to retain the top job. In a campaign event on July 17, he warned that Venezuela would fall “into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war” if he didn’t win the election.

This election has only come about following a tortuous process that culminated in an agreement signed in Barbados in October 2023, which committed Maduro to holding “free and fair” elections in return for a partial lifting of US sanctions on his government for human rights abuses and corruption.

But many people have questioned Maduro’s commitment to the agreement, pointing to his crackdown on human rights in the run-up to the election and the rigged process used to select opposition candidates.

Read more: Venezuela: why Maduro is ramping up his attack on free speech

The immensely popular leader of the Venezuelan opposition, María Corina Machado, will not appear on the ballot paper despite her winning more than 90% of the vote in the opposition’s informal primaries in October 2023.

Machado, a hardline far-right politician and longtime foe of Maduro’s government, has been disqualified from holding public office on several instances. In 2017, she was barred after expressing support for US sanctions. Then, in June 2023, she was banned again for a period of 15 years.

However, with the backing of the US, she has convinced a moderate and relatively unknown former diplomat, Edmundo González Urrutia, to stand in her place. González, who had previously never sought elected office, has campaigned on a platform for freedom, peace and reconciliation. Despite diverging political views, the desire to unseat Maduro is such that unity behind the candidacy of González has prevailed.

Demanding change

Under Maduro’s leadership, Venezuela has been thrown into a deep recession. High oil prices in the 2000s had allowed his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, to fund a socialist economic programme underpinned by high levels of social spending.

But the wave turned in 2013 when Chávez died and, shortly after Maduro’s election, global oil prices plummeted. The resulting drop in oil revenues – on which Venezuela is highly reliant – combined with US sanctions resulted in a 75% decline in the country’s GDP over Maduro’s first eight years in power.

Millions fled the country, and 90% of the population that remains now live below the poverty line (with 70% in extreme poverty). In rallies and pre-election polls, Venezuelans are overwhelmingly demanding change and see Sunday’s election as the best opportunity to turn the page.

The (official) size of the opposition’s win, and the response of the regime to it, are the big unknowns. Maduro’s regime controls the electoral process and has reduced the number of Venezuelans who are eligible to vote.

The opposition has been critical of the deliberate confusion that has surrounded the organisation of this election. Maduro’s name and face will appear 13 times on the top row of Sunday’s ballot paper – once for each political party he represents. His face will be the most recognisable on the ballot, in a country where the opposition has no access to official media.

Intimidation tactics are also being used by the regime. A report by the Venezuelan NGO Laboratorio de Paz said 71 “arbitrary detentions” had taken place involving opposition campaign workers, journalists, activists and members of civil society between July 4 and 14. On July 18, Machado posted a video on X claiming her campaign vehicle had been vandalised and her brakes cut.

It appears that Maduro is still hoping to suppress enough votes to secure a “clean win”. Only 69,000 of the 4 million Venezuelans who live abroad and are registered to vote met the government’s requirements to cast ballots overseas. Having fled the country, their votes would almost certainly have been cast for the opposition.

Political repression is also expected on and around polling day. However, despite being far from “free and fair”, the electoral conditions are better this time round than they were the last time Venezuelans voted for a new president in 2018. In that year, the contest was so rigged that neighbouring countries and the US declared the results illegitimate.

On July 24 2024, González announced that accreditation had finally been secured from Venezuela’s electoral council for 30,000 observers of polling stations, which should ensure greater transparency this time around.

What to watch for

For decades, voter participation in Venezuela has been in decline. But consulting firm Datanálisis estimates that more than 70% of Venezuelans will cast their vote in this election – a signal of people’s desire for change.

It is possible that Maduro will try to steal the election, particularly given the disincentives to stepping down – the US Drug Enforcement Agency has offered a US$15 million (£11.7 million) reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture. However, stealing the election will be more difficult this time, given the weight of international pressure and the strength of support for the opposition.

Those currently in power need incentives to engage in a peaceful transition to democratic rule. This could potentially take the form of an amnesty for human rights and drug trafficking charges against members of the regime, including Maduro.

The upcoming election could yet prove a starting point, rather than the endgame, for Venezuela. But those in power will only relinquish it if they know they won’t face prosecution.

Nicolas Forsans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.