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2024

Emmy Experts Typing: Does Hiroyuki Sanada need to watch out for Gary Oldman?

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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we revisit the drama races.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re in the early stages of Phase 2 — and loving it? OK, probably not. But more than a few categories remain in doubt, particularly Best Drama Actor. We both love Hiroyuki Sanada, but what if he’s not the favorite in that race and it’s actually good ol’ Gary Oldman. I’m old enough to remember when Oldman was the de facto frontrunner there for “Slow Horses” before “Shōgun” switched to the drama category, and with how both shows performed with the academy, an Oldman win really does make sense. He’s the true lead of his show, something I’m not sure could be typed as confidently about Sanada. Oldman is also in front of an underdog series that academy clearly loved — which isn’t to say the enthusiasm is lacking for “Shōgun” but it also underperformed relative to what might have been. I guess you could say that without Cosmo Jarvis here, Sanada has an even easier path to eventually Emmy glory. But that Jarvis snub makes me think the actors didn’t really go nuts for “Shōgun” the way we might have thought, while “Slow Horses” got “surprise” nominations for Jonathan Pryce in guest actor and Jack Lowden in Best Drama Supporting Actor, two contenders who were on the fringes heading into the nominations. To be clear, I haven’t made the switch just yet, but if you think of “Shōgun” as primarily focused on Mariko (Best Drama Actress frontrunner Anna Sawai) and Blackthorne (Jarvis) with Sanada’s Toranaga pulling all the strings — then maybe he’s more Brian Cox than Kieran Culkin or Jeremy Strong. And if that’s true, does an upset win for Tadanobu Asano materialize as the second “Shōgun” acting victory on Emmys night rather than one for Sanada? What do you think about this race, Joyce, as someone who was always cautious about the acting embrace of “Shōgun” to begin with?

joyceeng: I still have Sanada, but I do think this race is closer than most people think. If Sanada wins, we’ll never know since it would just be a “duh.” But, yes, “Slow Horses” over-performed and the noms for Lowden and Pryce show that even actors — usually the branch that is the most behind — have caught up on the series and Oldman is not just a name-check in a soft category. “Slow Horses” isn’t even that far off “Shōgun’s” acting nomination haul — it’s three to five when “Shōgun” was predicted by many to get nine or 10. I’m not gonna do it yet though, but I would not be surprised if “Shōgun” does not bag multiple acting categories as it’s predicted to. Nor does it need to in order bolster its series victory, but I think people want it to win multiple acting awards. Like we’ve said, Sawai feels the most safe and might end up being the sole acting win. Asano would be a fantastic winner, but I currently have former champ Billy Crudup from 10-time acting nominee “The Morning Show.” Here’s something I don’t think anyone has talked about yet: What if “Shōgun” doesn’t win any acting award? I’m not saying that will happen, but what if? It could still win series without acting hardware like “Game of Thrones” Season 6 or “Chernobyl” or “The Queen’s Gambit.” All three of those won directing, while “Game of Thrones” and Chernobyl” also won writing.

SEE Experts slugfest: Our first 2024 Emmy winner predictions

Christopher Rosen: No one has probably thought about that because Sawai feels so set as an obvious frontrunner — she’s already campaigning in Phase 2, which you know I love — but I do think “Shōgun” would be able to withstand an acting goose egg. Neither one of us have it in writing at the moment — you with your beloved “Slow Horses,” me with my beloved “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” — but its directing win feels pretty secure. Plus, regardless of its strength or lack thereof among the actors, it does feel like the consensus drama of the year. No one dislikes “Shōgun” and that should go a long way toward its eventual Best Drama Series victory, particularly without a consensus runner-up. We haven’t mentioned “The Crown” yet so allow me to mention “The Crown.” Everyone is expecting Elizabeth Debicki to win — so much so that we probably won’t spend all that much time even thinking about Best Drama Supporting Actress between now and September. But in the multiverse where she’s not the far and away frontrunner here, who would you put as an upset pick?

joyceeng: Her co-star Lesley Manville, who was the focus of arguably the best episode of Season 6, “Ritz.” I guess the Princess Margarets will go unrewarded at the Emmys and Princess Diana will finally become an Emmy-winning character after we all thought it would happen with Emma Corrin. I then have Christine Baranski, who now has the second most nominations in this category at seven. She has an Emmy for “Cybil,” winning on her first ever nomination in 1995, but she has not won since and deserved one for Diane Lockhart. She’s not going to offer much resistance to Debicki, but perhaps her and Carrie Coon‘s noms for “The Gilded Age” bode well for the future. I have the quartet of “The Morning Show” ladies rounding things out. They all had their individual moments on the wildly entertaining third season, but I don’t think any of them has a tremendous edge over the others. We’re both predicting Crudup as the lone acting win for “The Morning Show.” But what if it wins more? Or what if it goes 0-10?

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: What races have the nominations changed?

Christopher Rosen: It could easily go 0-10 if Asano beats Crudup, so I wouldn’t be totally surprised. But if I had to give it an addition win, it might be for Marcia Gay Harden in the guest actress category. At issue with the supporting actress contenders is they’re all deserving and kind of stuck in a barrel of crabs: Who would emerge at the top in a battle between them? I personally loved Holland Taylor, but her best moment and episode is also Nicole Beharie‘s best moment and episode. So does that cancel them out? Who can say! As for Crudup, he’s reliably the best part of “The Morning Show” and absolutely awesome on the show — so if he won again, I wouldn’t be shocked. But Asano is such a fan favorite on “Shōgun” is it possible I’m underestimating him after overestimating “Shōgun” at the nominations stage? I’ll figure that out eventually but until then, why don’t you take the last word.

joyceeng: I’m of the belief that Taylor would be win-competitive had she been eligible in guest. She would also be up against her beloved Sarah Paulson of your beloved “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” and you know I’m always here for silly things like that.

Emmy odds for Best Drama Actor
Who will win?

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