Five Potential Deadline Starter Replacements For Kodai Senga

The New York Mets received some unfortunate news Saturday, as manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed to reporters prior to the game that newly-returned Mets ace Kodai Senga is likely to miss the remainder of the regular season. Senga made his long-awaited return on Friday, however, let the game early with what was confirmed a high-grade left […]

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The New York Mets received some unfortunate news Saturday, as manager Carlos Mendoza confirmed to reporters prior to the game that newly-returned Mets ace Kodai Senga is likely to miss the remainder of the regular season. Senga made his long-awaited return on Friday, however, let the game early with what was confirmed a high-grade left calf strain.

With the injury, the Mets are back down to a relatively thin rotation that includes some large question marks. Jose Quintana, who has been much better as of late, still owns an eighth-percentile 5.20 xERA. David Peterson, who somehow owns a 5-0 record, has performed as one of the more luckier starting pitchers in the majors; 5.56 xERA versus 3.14 ERA. Lastly, there is Tylor Megill (5.20 ERA), who was thrusted back into a major-league role after Christian Scott went down with injury, and once again struggled on Saturday.

Couple the current over-performers with the new injury to Senga, and the pre-existing injury and struggles of Scott, the Mets are in desperate need of rotation help if they want to continue their quest for a wild card berth. It appears that the team is fortunately well aware of that as Joel Sherman of the NY Post confirmed that the Mets are now active in the starters’ market. So, as the July 30 MLB trade deadline quickly approaches, where can the Mets turn to for help?

Blake Snell Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Blake Snell

After holding out deep into the free agency, the 2023 Cy Young winner finally settled for a two-year deal worth $62 million with the second year of that deal being a player option. The left-handed Blake Snell then got off to an extremely rough start in 2024, battling a couple different injuries, a late start, and overall struggles on the actual mound when he found himself healthy.

Luckily, it seems as if Snell, finally healthy, is finding his groove. Since returning from injury on July 9, Snell has turned in five starts; 24 innings, eight hits, two runs (0.75 ERA), seven walks, and 30 strikeouts. His season ERA has been lowered from 9.51 to 5.10 over that stretch. The most recent performance, on Saturday, saw Snell strikeout 15 over six scoreless frames.

Looking at his season as a whole, despite the dreadful start, Snell’s analytical profile is still extremely strong. His xERA stands at 3.55, much less than his 5.20 actual figure; signifying he’s experienced some bad luck. He is doing a great job suppressing hard contact (73rd percentile average exit velocity and 90th percentile hard-hit rate) and getting strikeouts via swing-and-misses (71st percentile strikeout rate and 91st percentile whiff rate).

With Snell, there will always be the control issues, and add in the injury woes he has had to start the season, there is quite a bit of risk in acquiring him. However, these last four games cannot be ignored and the analytical profile paints a similar pitcher to what he was in his Cy Young-winning 2023 campaign.

According to Jon Heyman of the NY Post, it appears the Giants are certainly open to moving Snell. With a $30 million player option next season, and the Giants trending toward the need for a rebuild, the question of how much Snell would cost is an interesting one. Especially given how strong he has started to pitch. Another interesting factor; the Mets are already reportedly interested in another Giants player in Michael Conforto.

Jack Flaherty

After battling through injuries the past few seasons, Jack Flaherty has quietly emerged as one of the better starters in the American League for the Detroit Tigers this season. Flaherty’s 2.5 fWAR checks in at 11th in the AL, while his 2.95 ERA is ninth. Across 18 starts, the 28-year-old right-handed starter has tossed 106 2/3 innings posting 133 strikeouts and only 19 walks.

Flaherty’s analytical profile in 2024 is also quite strong. As mentioned above, his ability to strikeout opposing batters has been one of the best in the big leagues. His strikeout rate ranks in the league’s 93rd percentile, thanks in large part to a 94th percentile whiff rate and 78th percentile chase rate. He is not allowing hard contact either; as both his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity against rank in the 72nd percentile. He is doing all this without walking batters; owning a 93rd percentile walk rate.

It has been a terrific bounce-back season for Flaherty, and with his one-year, $14 million deal expiring after season’s end, he is likely to cash in during the offseason. Given the current landscape of the market, Flaherty is likely one of the top starters remaining, this despite being a rental. With the Mets seemingly being tied to left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin every offseason, would a package deal with both Flaherty and Chafin, albeit likely pricey, make sense?

Erick Fedde

Former Washington Nationals pitcher Erick Fedde was once a starting pitcher the Mets were very interested in during the offseason. However, he signed a two-year deal worth $15 million with the Chicago White Sox. This interest has supposedly been reignited as Joel Sherman of the NY Post reported the Mets have indeed checked in on Fedde after the injury to Senga. Given his performance thus far in 2024 with the White Sox, he is one of the more sought out pitchers on the market ahead of the deadline.

Fedde revived his career in Korea as a member of the KBO’s NC Dinos. Fedde captured the KBO’s Choi Dong-won award in 2023, which is equivalent to the Cy Young award. He posted a 20-6 record with a 2.00 ERA over 30 starts and 180 1/3 innings, totaling 209 strikeouts to only 35 walks and 137 hits. These numbers were also good enough to win the KBO’s Triple Crown. He parlayed that success into a two-year deal and a very successful 2024 season, thus far.

After posting a 5.41 ERA across his six-year Washington Nationals career, Fedde has posted a 2.98 ERA across 117 2/3 innings in his return to the majors so far this season. He has allowed only 99 hits to go along with 104 strikeouts. The analytics say that his 2.98 ERA may be a bit deceiving, but the overall picture is still very strong. Fedde ranks above the league’s 60th percentile in xERA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate.

Not only is the 31-year-old right-handed starter having a solid season, he is under contract in 2025 for an extremely valuable $7.5 million. Given this, one would assume that any potential trade for Fedde would not come cheap. Maybe, as is the case with some of the others mentioned on this list, the Mets would be interested in packaging him with along with reliever John Brebbia.

Jameson Taillon. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Jameson Taillon

The Chicago Cubs are enduring another subpar season which means they are likely to sell once again. One of their potential chips is starting pitcher Jameson Taillon. Taillon has not only had a strong 2024, but he would also be able to help the Mets beyond this season. The 32-year-old right-handed starter is under contract for $18 million per year through the end of 2026.

The first season of Taillon’s four-year deal with Chicago did not go as planned. He tossed 154 1/3 innings, however, he posted an ERA of 4.84 and FIP of 4.61. Luckily, for the Cubs and the 32-year-old, Taillon has bounced back thus far this season. Through 17 starts, he has posted a 2.96 ERA and 3.77 FIP. These numbers would be the best marks of his career since missing most of the 2019 season and all of 2020.

The analytical profile isn’t as pretty as the traditional numbers paint his season out to be, granted, they’re not bad by any means. His 3.68 xERA is a strong number, but indicates he has experienced some good fortune. The soft-tosser has specifically done a good job of limiting hard contact (69th percentile hard-hit rate) and does not walk batters (89th percentile walk rate). Overall, despite some potential evidence for regression, Taillon has been solid in 2024.

On one hand, acquiring Taillon would not only help the Mets for the remainder of the season, it would also lock down a rotation spot through the end of 2026. However, there is quite a bit of risk associated with acquiring the eight-year veteran. An annual average salary of $18 million is a decent commitment on a 32-year-old pitcher with injury concerns and one who is slightly over-performing in 2024. However, if he can keep the current performances up over the duration of the deal, he can provide great value and lock down a middle rotation spot for the next couple seasons.

Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi has had a very up-and-down major-league career after coming over from Japan in 2019. He owns a career 4.72 ERA, and currently owns a mark three point higher than that (4.75) so far this season. This after a career-year in 2023 where he posted a 3.86 ERA across 167 2/3 innings with a 11-6 record. What may be the most valuable aspect of Kikuchi’s major-league career; his durability. The left-handed starter has thrown at least 100 innings in each of the last four seasons.

Kikuchi’s 3.64 FIP he has posted thus far in 2024 would be the second-best mark of his now six-year career. His xERA of 3.97 further indicates that the 4.75 ERA is a bit deceiving and he has likely been a victim of some tough luck and poor fielding behind him. Further analysis into Kikuchi’s analytical profile paints a pitcher that has been doing a solid job in generating strikeouts (75th percentile) and whiffs (72nd percentile); 130 punch-outs across 115 2/3 innings. The analytical profile overall paints him as a middle-of-the-road starter, which would be upgrades over current Mets Megill, Peterson, Scott, and even Quintana.

The 33-year-old is slated to be a free agent at season’s end, carrying a salary of only $10 million. This will likely lead to him being one of the more sought out starters at the deadline, especially for teams who are looking to buy on a budget. Given this, and the fact that the Mets’ rotation currently features three left-handed starters, the team may want to go a different route. However, if they chose to deal for the Japanese starter, he would be an instant upgrade over several current options in the rotation.

Final Thoughts

After hitting what seemed like rock bottom earlier in the year at 22-33, the New York Mets are poised to contend for one of the three wild card spots for the remainder of the 2024 season. This puts president of baseball operations David Stearns in an extremely interesting spot. All of a sudden, the team is poised to be a buyer rather than seller. Something that appeared to be an outlandish proposition just months ago, and is not really in line with how the team’s timeline forecasted entering the season.

For those reasons, Stearns would be wise to not “over-buy” and potentially compromise the ultimate goal of building a sustained winner through a strong farm system. If that is possible to keep that mindset while acquiring any of the five mentioned above, the Mets would be a lot better for it.

Of course, it is much easier said than done, especially with some of the names out there (likely Snell), however, that is what the excitement of the trade deadline is all about.

The post Five Potential Deadline Starter Replacements For Kodai Senga appeared first on Metsmerized Online.