Nepal: Games Of Instability – Analysis
By Deepak Kumar Nayak
On July 21, 2024, Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli won a vote of confidence in the Lower House [House of Representatives (HoR)] of Nepal’s Parliament with 188 in favour, out of a total of 263 members present in the House, and 74 voting against the motion. Dev Raj Ghimire, Speaker of the Federal Parliament, abstained from voting. Twelve lawmakers were not present in the Parliament during the voting.
Earlier, on July 15, 2014, Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal – United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), had been sworn in as Prime Minister and was asked to prove majority within a month.
Oli had replaced CPN-Maoist Centre chairman Pushpa Kamal DahalakaPrachanda, who had lost the vote of confidence in the HoR on July 12, 2024. The Dahal government fell as its main alliance partner, Oli’s CPN-UML, announced the withdrawal of its support on July 3, 2024, following successful negotiations with the Nepali Congress (NC). Padam Giri, minister for law, justice, and parliamentary affairs, echoing the sentiments of the CPN-UML, declaring, “We have decided to withdraw our support to pave the way for political stability through a national consensus government.” Reports indicate that the withdrawal of support occurred after the political deal was made with the NC, possibly late in the night of July 1, 2024.
It is pertinent to recall here that on November 20, 2022, elections for 165 seats of the HoR were held under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, in a single phase. In accordance with the constitutional arrangement, another 110 seats are allocated under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. There are a total of 275 seats in the HoR. According to the final results submitted by the Election Commission to President Bidya Devi Bhandari, the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba-led NC emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats (57 FPTP + 32 PR), followed by the Oli-led CPN-UML, 78 seats (44 FPTP + 34 PR); Prachanda-led CPN-Moist Centre, 32 seats (18 FPTP + 14 PR); RSP, 20 seats (7 FPTP + 13 PR); RPP, 14 seats (7 FPTP + 7 PR); Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal (JSP-N), 12 seats (7 FPTP + 5 PR); Madhav Kumar Nepal-led Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist), 10 FPTP seats; Janamat Party, six FPTP seats, Loktantrik Samajwadi Party-Nepal (LSP-N), four FPTP seats; Nagarik Unmukti Party, three FPTP seats; and Rashtriya Janmorcha and Nepal Mazdoor Kisan Party, one FPTP seat each. Independents secured five seats.
The then five party Joint Ruling Alliance (JRA) – NC, CPN-Moist Centre, CPN- Unified Socialist, LSP-N and Rashtriya Janmorcha – had contested the elections together. The then main opposition party, the CPN-UML had RPP and JSP-N as alliance partners. Though no single party or alliance emerged a clear-cut winner, the JRA could have formed the government, with the help of Independents, as the alliance was in striking distance, with 136 seats, just two short of the 138 seats required. However, the tussle between Prachanda and Deuba over the issue of who would lead the new government intensified. Reports indicate that, while a tacit understanding was reached between the two leaders to lead the government on a rotational basis, the NC in the morning of December 25, 2022, rejected Prachanda’s demand to be Prime Minister in the first half of the term. Later in the day, Prachanda went to meet his friend-turned-rival-turned-friend, another Maoist veteran, Oli, and brokered a deal to form a new government on rotational basis, with Prachanda becoming the PM first. Prachanda then exited the JRA. On the same day, along with Oli and other new alliance partners, Prachanda went to President Bidya Devi Bhandari, to stake his claim, and was appointed Prime Minister, taking the oath on December 26, 2022, and later securing the vote of confidence on January 10, 2023, with 268 votes from the 275-member HoR. Interestingly, this made Prachanda the first Prime Minister to receive a 99 per cent endorsement.
Within a span of three months, two parties in the seven-party alliance – RPP and CPN-UML – withdrew support from the government following Prachanda’s decision to support NC candidate Ramchandra Paudel in the presidential election, and Prachanda was forced to prove his majority on March 20, 2023. However, Prachanda secured 172 votes with eleven political parties including NC, CPN-Maoist Centre, RSP, CPN–Unified Socialist, JSP-N, LSP, NUP, and the Janamat Party, among others, voting in his favour.
Just under a year later, on March 13, 2024, Prachanda was again forced to a face vote of confidence after the NC withdrew support to the then ruling coalition, on March 4, 2024. Interestingly, Prachanda had won the third vote of confidence and had received 157 votes in his favour, receiving support from 75 lawmakers from the CPN-UML, 32 from the CPN-Maoist Centre, 21 from the RSP, 12 from the JSP-N, 10 from the CPN-Unified Socialist, four from the NUP, and independent lawmakers Amaresh Kumar Singh and Yogendra Mandal.
Again, on May 20, 2024, Prachanda won a vote of confidence in Parliament for the fourth time amidst sloganeering by the main opposition NC, which abstained from the vote. Prachanda received 157 votes. The vote was necessitated as the coalition partner, JSP-N, withdrew its support to the Prachanda-led government on May 13, 2024.
Thus, between December 26, 2022, when he became the Prime Minister, and July 12, 2024, Prachanda was forced to prove his majority on at least five occasions. Though he succeeded in winning the vote of confidence on four of these, garnering the support of one or other major party, the NC or the CPN-UML, his political maneuvering came to an end on July 12, 2014.
Meanwhile, a seven-point agreement has been signed between the NC and the CPN-UML, that has led the formation of the new government:
- National consensus government: A government will be formed under Article 76(2) of the Constitution, involving other political parties to ensure political stability, control corruption, promote good governance, and boost national development.
- Constitutional review and amendments: The new government will assess the Constitution's performance, address its weaknesses, and make necessary amendments for political stability.
- Economic revival: Efforts will focus on revitalizing the economy by fostering a conducive business environment, stimulating investment, and creating jobs within Nepal.
- Leadership transition: K. P. Sharma Oli will lead the government for the first two years, followed by Sher Bahadur Deuba, until the general elections in December 2027.
- Governance framework: The government will operate based on a common program to protect national interests, curb corruption, and ensure good governance.
- Equal participation: Major political parties will have equal roles in the government, with other parties included as well.
- Provincial and local development: The government will accelerate development at the provincial and local levels, aligning with public sentiment and the consensus agreement.
Political uncertainties have been a roller-coaster phenomenon since Nepal became free of insurgency and terrorism following the signing of theComprehensive Peace Agreementon November 21, 2006.
Despite the long and unending political uncertainties, Nepal has largely remained free of armed violence. As of now, the country has no active insurgent group. The last of active armed group, the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) – which was responsible for the last terrorism-linked fatality registered in the country reached a three-point agreement with the Government on March 4, 2021. On December 8, 2020, cadres of the group shot dead a teacher, Rajendra Shrestha, in the Miklajung Rural Municipality of Morang District in Province No. 1.
Insurgency in the country is certainly a thing of past, and there is little chance of a resurrection of armed conflict in the foreseeable future. However, political stability and the games of friction within the political classes, remain an ongoing reality, demonstrating the immaturity of the political leaders in their scramble for power. Absent a greater measure of responsibility and trust in the political classes, strengthening governance and addressing prevailing misrepresentations to establish a peaceful democratic progression for the betterment of the country, will remain beyond the reach of the people of Nepal.
- Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management