Unravelling habituation for COVID-19-related information: A panel data study in Japan

by Shinya Fukui

This study examines people’s habituation to COVID-19-related information over almost three years. Using publicly available data from 47 Japanese prefectures, I analyse how human mobility responded to COVID-19-related information, such as the number of COVID-19-infected cases, the declaration of a state of emergency (DSE), and several doses of vaccine using an interactive effects model, which is a type of panel data regression. The results show that Japanese citizens were generally fearful and cautious during the first wave of the unknown infection. As such, a 1% week-on-week increase in the number of infected cases results in a decrease in human mobility by 1.09-percentage-point (pp) week-on-week. However, they gradually became habituated to similar infection information during the subsequent waves, which is reflected in 0.71 pp and 0.29 pp decreases in human mobility in the second and third waves. Nevertheless, the level of habituation decreased in response to the different types of the infection, such as new variants in the fourth wave, with 0.50 pp decrease. By contrast, regarding the DSE, it is more plausible to consider that human mobility responds to varying requests rather than habituate them. Whereas a rapid vaccination program could alleviate people’s concerns. I also find spatial spillovers of infection information on human mobility using a spatial weight matrix included in the regression model. However, there is no evidence of DSE or vaccination spatial spillovers, likely because both are valid only in one’s own prefecture. The implementation of flexible human mobility control policies by closely monitoring human mobility can prevent excessive or insufficient mobility control requests. Such a flexible policy can efficiently suppress infection spread and prevent economic activity reduction more than necessary. These implications are useful for evidence-based policymaking during future pandemics.