Trump edges out Harris in Arizona, Pennsylvania but lags in Georgia in new polling

Former President Trump is narrowly edging out Vice President Harris in Arizona and Pennsylvania, while he runs behind her in Georgia, according to new polling first shared with The Hill.

The polling, which was commissioned by Democratic super PAC Progress Action Fund and conducted by the left-leaning pollster Public Policy Polling, showed Trump at 49 percent and Harris at 47 percent in Arizona, with 3 percent of respondents not sure. 

Trump led Harris in Pennsylvania 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided. Meanwhile, in Georgia, it was flipped: Harris narrowly edged out Trump 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided. 

Because all the polls fall within their respective margin of errors, Trump and Harris are essentially tied in each state — a notable development from several weeks ago when Democrats were contending with President Biden, who trailed Trump in most battleground states. 

The Arizona poll also found that 59 percent said that if Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) were chosen as Harris’s running mate, it wouldn’t make a difference whether they were more or less likely to vote for Harris. 

Twenty-two percent of Arizonans said it made them more likely, while 17 percent said it made them less likely. A separate 2 percent said they were not sure. 

The Pennsylvania polling found 64 percent of respondents saying it wouldn’t make a difference in whether they picked Harris if Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) were her running mate. A separate 19 percent said it would make them more likely to back Harris, 14 percent said it would make them less likely and 3 percent said they were not sure. 

"In just one week, Vice President Harris has turned this race around by running an exceptional and unprecedentedly effective campaign," said Joe Jacobson, founder and executive director of Progress Action Fund.

"Most Democrats are afraid to go on offense, but Vice President Harris is not one of them,” he continued. “She completely shifted the narrative of the race and she will win the presidency if Democrats continue to hold Donald Trump and Republicans accountable for their creepy, weird policies."

The Democratic super PAC is known for eyebrow-raising ads, including one ad depicting a Republican congressman in a couples’ bedroom to highlight the issue of reproductive access last year. 

The polling, though early, at least suggests Democrats have reason to be optimistic about keeping battleground states in play for the party with Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee. Her campaign has been vetting candidates for vice president, and Shapiro and Kelly are some names in the mix. 

The Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona was conducted July 29-30, with 618 Arizona voters surveyed. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The Pennsylvania survey was conducted July 29-30, with 627 Pennsylvania voters surveyed. The margin of error is 3.9 percent. The Georgia survey was conducted July 29-30, with 662 Georgia voters surveyed. The margin of error for that poll is 3.8 percent.