PayPal lifts 2024 profit forecast for second time as spending holds up, margins improve

PayPal (PYPL.O) on Tuesday raised its forecast for full-year adjusted profit for the second time, betting on resilient consumer spending in the back-to-school and upcoming holiday shopping seasons, while cost-cutting measures improved margins.

Shares in the payments giant rose 4 per cent in premarket trading after the results.

American consumers have remained remarkably hardy despite higher-for-longer interest rates burning a hole in their pockets. Even as rival payments firms have flagged worries of increasing pressure on the lower-income bracket, the sector logged broadly steady growth in transaction volumes this year.

Meanwhile, under CEO Alex Chriss, the company has focused on improving operating margins by restructuring, aggressively cutting costs and reducing its headcount. In January, it announced plans to slash about 2,500 jobs, or 9 per cent of its global workforce.

PayPal now expects adjusted profit growth in a “low to mid-teens percentage” in 2024, compared with its April forecast of a “mid-to-high single-digit” increase.

Total payment volumes increased 11 per cent, to $416.81 billion in the second quarter, while net revenue climbed 9 per cent, to $7.89 billion on an FX-neutral basis.

PayPal’s operating margins expanded 231 basis points on an adjusted basis, to 18.5 per cent in the quarter. Its margins have been central to investor anxiety over the past year, after post-pandemic growth slowed.

Easing some worries, total payments volumes in branded checkout grew roughly 6 per cent in the second quarter. PayPal said branded checkout, Braintree, and Venmo contributed to the highest transaction margin dollars growth rate – a key measure of profitability of its core business – since 2021.

Transaction margin dollars jumped 8 per cent in the quarter, to $3.61 billion.

The entry of Big Tech giants such Apple (AAPL.O) and Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) into the digital payments space in recent years has heightened competition, hurting PayPal’s market share.

As a result, although PayPal’s unbranded businesses have grown, weakness in its branded businesses such as Venmo has weighed on the stock.

Soon after his appointment as CEO last year, Chriss had said he expects to increase revenue outside of purely transaction-related volumes and pledged to make the fintech leaner.

PayPal also expects third-quarter revenue to grow by a “mid-single-digit percentage”, below Wall Street expectations of an increase of around 7.5 per cent, according to LSEG data.

Its adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.19 in the three months ended June 30, compared with 87 cents a year ago.