Could Harris Choose a Female Running Mate?

It’s the conventional wisdom – even a trope – to suggest that female and minority presidential candidates need to “balance” their tickets by naming male running mates that would be “acceptable” to mainstream – namely White – voters.   Fear of a backlash to Barack Obama’s candidacy led to discussion among Democrats about which establishment “graybeard” might ease White voter concerns.  Much the same discussion is occurring now that Kamala Harris appears destined to become the Democratic standard-bearer this fall.  The only issue seems to be which White voters are most in need of appeasement – those in the Sunbelt or the Rust Belt – and which VP choice –  for example Arizona’s Mark Kelly or Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro respectively – could best get the job done.

But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong?

A number of commentators – including Chuck Todd at NBC News and former California assembly speaker and Harris mentor Willie Brown – have raised the possibility that Harris might defy conventional wisdom and choose a female running mate – not a male one.  They weren’t just throwing the idea out on a lark.  As Brown pointedly noted, an all-female ticket “would be the most fascinating challenge ever” and would offer a “stark contrast to Trump, the most anti-female candidate ever.  If you want to beat Trump you’ve got to become the lead in all the news stories from now until November 5th.  Ordinary old White guys – good young White guys – will not get that kind of attention.  Two women will.”

And many Democrats agree.  A poll conducted on the eve of Harris’ ascension asked voters about what kind of Democratic ticket might actually beat Trump.  Respondents voiced various options but the most popular ticket turned out to be one that matched Harris with Hillary Clinton.  Voters favored that ticket by 3 points over the GOP ticket led by Trump.  Other options for the ticket, one led by a male Democratic governor, fared more poorly.  It was a shocking result in part because Clinton has been deemed radioactive by much of the electorate after her failed 2016 bid against Trump.  But when Clinton ran she went the same route as Obama and Biden – choosing a moderate male running mate Virginia senator Tim Kaine on the assumption his presence would lend added credibility and heft to her candidacy.  In fact Kaine, who lacked even a scintilla of Clinton’s charisma or policy smarts, seemed to detract from her appeal.

Harris herself – defying conventional wisdom – has named at least two women as possible running mates – Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer and former Rhode Island governor and current secretary of commerce Gina Raimundo.  Whitmer has gained considerable acclaim in recent years for having vanquished a Trump-based opponent – another woman – en route to her 10-point reelection victory in 2022.  She is also out-polling Trump in head-to-head surveys among Michigan voters.  She recently served as a Co-chair of Biden’s re-election campaign after declining to run for president herself.  It’s been widely thought that she has no interest in serving as Harris’ VP – and has already begged out of the selection process – but she did receive vetting materials from the candidate and is still in the running – at least formally.

Raimondo is a virtual unknown.  Her tenure in Rhode Island received little national notice and Commerce secretary is among the most token cabinet appointments imaginable (only HUD is considered a weaker post).  Its decision-making authority is vastly overshadowed by the Treasury secretary and the chairman of the Council on Economic Advisors.  Even on trade matters the US Trade Representative exercises more power and influence.  Like HUD it’s been a post typically assigned to minorities supportive of a president’s campaign.  (Obama for example named billionaire heiress Penny Pritzer wife of current Illinois governor J.B. Prtizer. to the post in 2013).

Raimondo, who clearly wants to serve with Harris, has recently spoken out on the viability of an all-woman ticket.  “I’ve run a business. I’ve run a state for two terms. I now run a huge agency. I’m an executive.  Any executive knows, if you want to get the job done, you hire the right people in the right spots at the right time to get it done” she told CBS News.  “And the American people are looking for action.  They’re yearning for leadership to solve their problems, and I think they’ll get behind whomever they can trust [regardless of gender] to fight for them and to put their interests first and get the job done.”

Whitmer, despite publicly declining an offer to run with Harris, agrees wholeheartedly.  “I think two women on the ticket would be extremely exciting, ” she told CBS earlier this week. “In Michigan my two top elected officials, my attorney general and my secretary of state are two women.  Every one of us was told we can’t have too many women on the ticket.  We ignored that.  We were bold and we moved forward and we’ve given one another a platform and the space to own the offices which we were elected to. There are a lot of great women in the country ready to lead right now.”

No doubt the current statistically deadlocked presidential race will come down to one key factor:  turnout.  Trump chose J.D. Vance as his running mate – over the objection of many of his donors who favored the more suburban-friendly Marco Rubio or Doug Burnum – because he recognized that getting the GOP base – and the many voters who haven’t cast ballots since his unexpected triumph in 2016 – to the polls will make or break his bid.  Turnout depends on dramatizing the stakes and generating a high level of enthusiasm for his re-election. Polls show that the number of truly undecided voters in 2024  has shrunk to an historic low – 4% to 6% at most – from 10%-15% only a month ago.  In other words there may not be many swing voters – or “persuadables” –  left.  Still months of anticipating a rematch between Trump and Biden has left many previously committed voters demoralized – and disaffected and many have told pollsters they would likely stay home.  That’s why generating a high turnout has become especially critical for both parties.

Could an all-female ticket make the difference in November?  Harris’ candidacy has already energized youth and minority women and her once abysmal approval rating has surged of late.  But so has Trump’s, in fact.  Echoing the conventional wisdom, many Democratic strategists are counseling Harris to play it safe – and go the conventional route.  The race will be close and every wavering vote counts  they say.  Don’t alienate them.  The comforting presence of a more moderate male who can reassure voters that change will come slowly and that Harris will tack closer to the political “center” than previously – on crime immigration – is what’s needed most.

But what if voters are ready for more change than the establishment – including the Democratic establishment – realizes? Trump and Vance in their arrogance, snarl and outright chauvinism seem to have highlighted the downside of male governance at its extreme – a childishness and immaturity that verges on reckless on irresponsible.  It reminds voters how competent female leaders typically bring a different more comforting and collegial – and yes feminine – style to exercising their authority one that may be more in keeping with the intractability of the problems the nation faces – and the desire of the electorate for less vitriol and more kindness and compassion from its leaders.

Harris, according to the latest news reports, seems to be embracing the conventional wisdom. She’s narrowed her VP search down to just 3 male candidates – Kelly, Shapiro and Minnesota governor Tim Walz.  Will it work?  It did for Obama in 2008, but not for Clinton in 2016  She found out the hard way that it wasn’t moderate voters she needed most– it was the base.  In several of the key swing states especially in the Rust Belt they failed to show up for her while Trump voters turned out at historic levels.  The enthusiasm gap – and the turnout gap – pushed Trump over the top

Harris is assuming that having a popular – and relatively moderate – governor at her side will tilt the scales in her favor, mainly with the small share of persuadables left.  She’s also assuming that her chosen swing state running mate can help her carry his state – which has rarely been the case even when the ticket is all-male  JFK’s selection of LBJ in 1960 is the most commonly cited exception.  There are plenty of other examples – for example Democrat Michael Dukakis,  who chose Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas to oppose George H. W. Bush’s election in 1988 – that failed to pan out.  Having same-party governors in place certainly helps – for example Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker may have helped Trump win his state narrowly in 2016 by overseeing his campaign there  – but he wasn’t on Trump’s ticket – he didn’t need to be.

As exciting as Harris seems to be for many base voters, Democrats still face a persistent enthusiasm gap this November – and it might well grow as the giddy mood surrounding Harris’ initial ascendance begins to subside.  (Just compare the size of Harris’ rallies with Trump’s).  A more conservative male running mate won’t energize the base – if anything it might stall her surge.  It could be that America has matured to the point where race and gender concerns really don’t matter as much as they once did or seemed – even as recently as 2008 when Obama faced a relentless barrage of attacks.  Maybe a male running mate at Harris’ side can help shield her from Trump’s soon-to-be unveiled assault on her record and character. And it might help her with men who currently tilt sharply toward Trump by a 17-point margin compared to a 14-point margin for Harris among women according to the latest New York Times poll.  That’s the theory at least.

But why play defense?  Giving America something even higher to shoot for might be just what so many disaffected voters – including a healthy 20% share of Democrats still skeptical of Harris – need to stay mobilized.  And there’s another critical reason:  An all-female ticket actively campaigning for a new vision of America clearly places a woman – not a man – in line as Harris’ heir apparent in 2032.  It could be the clearest sign yet – as Harris herself says – that “we’re not going backward” from this point forward.  But seizing the moment – and defining the emerging zeitgeist so expansively – will require Democrats to demonstrate extraordinary courage and faith.  It means abandoning the fear and complacency that has left the country hostage to Trump and Trumpism.

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