Inside Kim Jong-un’s succession crisis as ‘spoiled’ daughter rivals ruthless sister – and how it could trouble the West
IN North Korea’s mysterious corridors of power, a succession saga has been brewing that could have immense consequences for the world.
Although Kim Jong-un has had a tight grip on power since 2011, concerns over his health have raised questions about the lack of a clear heir apparent.
Kim, 40, is said to be suffering from high blood pressure and diabetes and weighs a whopping 22st, despite standing at 5ft 5in.
He also comes from a family that has been plagued by heart issues.
He took over from his father, Kim Jong-il, in 2011 when he died as a result of a huge heart attack.
Before that, his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, died following a sudden cardiac arrest in 1994.
With nuclear capabilities and a long history of unpredictable diplomacy, the country’s future leadership has become a global concern.
This week, reports indicated that the dictator is training his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, who is said to be between the ages of 10 and 12, as his successor.
Although the secretive state has not openly admitted that she is next in line, spies in South Korea believe that Kim Ju-ae’s elevated public presence is not by chance.
But there are other family members who could beat the youngster to the post – including an alleged secret son and Kim’s brutal sister who has ordered executions and could spell particular trouble for the West.
And as the brutal 2017 assassination of exiled Kim Jong-nam, the eldest son of Kim Jong-il, shows, family tensions are never far from the surface in the despotic dynasty.
The ‘spoilt’ daughter
Spies in South Korea are said to be convinced Kim Ju-ae is the most likely heir to the Kim dynasty.
According to local reports, Park Sun-won, the South’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) secretary, said: “Kim Ju-ae is hinted at as a strong successor and is undergoing successor training.”
He added: “How North Korea refers to Kim Ju-ae and what activities she appears in are very significant.”
She is the supreme leader’s second child with his wife, Ri Sol-ju. In 2012, the former singer disappeared from the public eye while she was pregnant with her.
Like most aspects of life in North Korea, Kim Ju-ae’s identity and name were shrouded in secrecy. That was until basketball legend Dennis Rodman, who shares a close friendship with the dictator, revealed it.
As the despot’s “favourite” child, Kim Ju-ae has been pictured with her father at recent events and lives a charmed life that is a far cry from what most residents of the country dare to dream of.
When she was photographed with her father last year, she was seen wearing a pair of Gucci sunglasses. In another public appearance, she was seen wearing a £1,500 jacket from Dior.
This is despite UN trade sanctions on such items being delivered into the country, and the state’s own supposed distaste for ‘bourgeois’ status symbols popular with the West – although Kim has reportedly spent $4billion on luxury goods since coming to power.
Dr Adam Zulawnik, senior tutor of Korean Studies at the University of Melbourne, has extensively researched the culture and politics of the country, which is officially known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK),
He says of Kim Ju-ae: “She is evidently the favoured child of the DPRK leader. The private life of the ruling Kim family is closely guarded, but judging by what we know about the life of the leader, we can assume that his daughter would be living a lavish lifestyle
“This is much in contrast with that of most of her fellow people. The family own at least 15 estates across North Korea with their favourite near the seaside of Wonsan on the East Coast, equipped with all the imaginable luxury amenities.”
Virginie Grzelczyk, associate professor in International Relations at Aston University, adds: “The quality of clothes and accessories show design goods which would be largely inaccessible to most – if not all -of the population in the DPRK.
“Being part of the elite family in the DPRK means access to education. Kim Jong-un’s own schooling involved extensive time spent in Switzerland during his teens.
“Her presence next to her father at a number of official events is reminiscent to that of children of royalty in other countries.”
According to intelligence gathered by the NIS, Kim Ju-ae is homeschooled in Pyongyang and has never stepped foot in an education facility.
She also enjoys many activities that are considered luxury in the country, such as swimming, skiing, and horseriding. Her father is said to be particularly pleased that she’s so good at horseriding.
But many people in the country are said to be furious at her privileged lifestyle.
The family own at least 15 estates across North Korea with their favourite near the seaside of Wonsan on the East Coast, equipped with all the imaginable luxury amenities
Adam Zulawnik
Dr Zulawnik says: “There are currently around 34,000 North Korean escapees in South Korea.
“There have been consistent reports that most people in North Korea are indeed unhappy with the disparity between the life of the Kim family, or ruling class, and the working class.”
Prof Grzelczyk believes her introduction to the world is a way for the public to get familiar with her before she takes over.
“Kim Jong-un did not start to appear in the North Korean media around his father Kim Jong Il under the late 2000s, and there was little time for him to be elevated to positions of power before Kim Jong Il passed away in 2011”, she explains.
“It is known that Kim Jong-un has had some health difficulties in recent years despite his young age, and there might be an imperative from the leadership point of view to support an early socialisation to transition.”
The ‘ruthless’ sister
For many years, the leader’s powerful sister, Kim Yo-Jong, has been tipped to be his successor. Noted for her steely public persona, she has worked closely with her brother and met leaders on his behalf.
While Dr Zulawnik says she is not a “direct heir,” he believes that she could be appointed leader in an interim capacity.
He explains: “If Kim Ju-ae is to become the next leader, I think that a more likely scenario is that Kim Yo-Jong will come into power in the interim with support from the Workers’ Party of Korea until Ju-ae reaches maturity.
While the world initially thought that Kim Yo-Jong’s possible leadership would soften North Korea’s international diplomacy, Dr Zulawnik believes that this could be far from reality.
He explains: “Some experts speculated that a possible female leader could bring positive changes to inter-Korean relations. But that was soon dismissed as Yo-Jong proved that she was just as ruthless as her brother and father.
“She has engaged in a series of purges, ordered the executions of several officials and imprisonment of dozens of their family members for what were sometimes reportedly trivial reasons quoted as, for example, ‘getting on her nerves’.
“It is difficult to say whether she would be even more brutal, but we do know from several sources that she has played a considerable role in guiding Kim Jong-un in how he maintains his image.
“She has been credited with what could be seen as rather drastic decision-making, such as the destruction of the inter-Korean liaison office in 2020.”
The Inter-Korean Liason Office functioned as a de facto embassy for the North and South to communicate in the absence of formal diplomatic relations.
She has engaged in a series of purges, ordered the executions of several officials and imprisonment of dozens of their family members for what were sometimes reportedly trivial reasons quoted as, for example, ‘getting on her nerves’
Dr Adam Zulawnik
Some experts have even gone as far as to call Kim Yo-Jong the world’s most dangerous woman.
In 2021, it was reported that officials had been left scared after she ordered the execution of many of their colleagues.
Earlier this year, she issued a terrifying warning to North Korea’s “enemies”. She said: “I make myself clear once again that the safety catch of trigger of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) had already been slipped.
“As already declared, the KPA will launch an immediate military strike if the enemy makes even a slight provocation.”
Married to Choe Song, the son of a government official, Kim Yo-Jong is said to have a child born in May 2015.
It has also been claimed that she was pregnant during the 2018 Winter Olympics.
The ‘mystery son’
Rumours that Kim Jong-un had a son who could succeed him have persisted for years. It has been said that he was born in 2010.
Apart from that, almost nothing at all is known about him and his alleged second sibling. Dr Zulawnik believes that the mystery surrounding his reported eldest child might be due to several factors.
He says: “Whether or not Kim has an eldest son has, in itself, been debated, with some theories indicating that he could be rearing him behind the scenes as a successor.
“This is based on the assumption that North Korea would follow a Confucian patriarchal model of male succession. Another possibility, however, is that Kim’s eldest son is somehow unsuitable for succession.
“This could be due to any number of reasons, ranging from the individual not being interested or even health issues.
“Mental health and developmental issues, in particular, are still highly stigmatised in many parts of the world, and so any learning disability would likely be enough to rule out succession.”
But Dr Zulawnik is sceptical about why the eldest son would be groomed away from the public glare.
“One cannot help but ask why this is happening in secret”, he says. “My theory is that it could be someone who is not actually his son for reasons already stated.”
Dr Zulawnik believes that if Kim Ju-ae becomes leader, the only plausible explanation would be that the son does not actually exist or is not suitable.
Global implication
While Dr Zulawnik says it is difficult to determine what each leadership scenario might mean for the West, he believes much of what happens with North Korea is determined by the outside world – particularly Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, who have a trilateral partnership dubbed AUKUS.
He explains: “I would think that the stance of AUKUS, for example, along with its allies South Korea and Japan, as well as their relationship with China and Russia, would have a much greater impact than any change in leadership in North Korea.
“As it stands, South Korea, currently led by Yoon Suk Yeol, has taken a strong stance against North Korea, pivoting towards making amends with Fumio Kishida-led Japan.
“The upcoming US presidential race will undoubtedly have a huge impact on global dynamics, including how North Korea’s Asian neighbours and the West interact with the Kim family.
“South Korea and Japan would be unlikely to function in the same way as they do now if Donald Trump were to become president.
“He is likely to take a more America-centric approach and bring North Korea to the discussion table, as he did during his first term.”