Can Tom Goodman-Hill (‘Baby Reindeer’) win Emmy for one of the season’s most insidious roles?
“Baby Reindeer” submitted four actors for Emmy nominations this season, and all four of them made the cut. Of those, the least certain was Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actor contender Tom Goodman-Hill. We had ranked him eighth in our odds for the nomination, but he defied the odds and got into the field of seven. And that might have been the hardest part. Now that he’s a nominee, he has jumped to third place in our odds for who will win. A victory would be especially impressive given how subtle and insidious a performance it is.
Goodman-Hill is a veteran character actor with credits spanning more than 30 years, but this is his first major industry recognition. He plays Darrien, a successful TV writer who entices struggling comedian Donny (Best Movie/Limited Actor nominee Richard Gadd) with promises of a career breakthrough, but is actually grooming him for sexual abuse. Most of his performance comes in “Episode 4,” which flashes back to that period in Donny’s life. There are no big emotional fireworks like most of his nominated co-stars get, but Goodman-Hill shows how Darrien’s supposed kindness and support allow him to insinuate himself into Donny’s life and burrow his way into Donny’s mind.
The current front-runner in the category is Jonathan Bailey (“Fellow Travelers”), followed by recent Oscar champ Robert Downey Jr. (“The Sympathizer”). Both actors have more screen time than Goodman-Hill and play showier roles — Downey himself plays multiple roles — but neither of their programs has much overall support from the TV academy. “Fellow Travelers” has three total bids, while Downey is the only Emmy nom for “Sympathizer.” “Baby Reindeer,” on the other hand, was nominated 11 times and is the front-runner for Best Limited Series, which might give Goodman-Hill the leg up.
In recent years, Emmy sweeps have become more common. “Olive Kitteridge” (2015), “The People v. O.J. Simpson” (2016), “Big Little Lies” (2017) and “Mare of Easttown” (2021) all swept three out of the four movie/limited series acting categories. With “Baby Reindeer” co-stars Gadd and Jessica Gunning out front in their respective races, Goodman-Hill could be carried along with them. And though this character isn’t likeable by any stretch of the imagination, there’s precedent for such a sinister role prevailing. The aforementioned “Big Little Lies” won this award for Alexander Skarsgard‘s performance as a domestic abuser. For that matter, reigning champ Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) played a serial killer. So Goodman-Hill is well-positioned to surprise with a win just like he surprised with the nomination.
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?