Blackhawks taking risk by progressing out of tanking stage without second elite forward prospect

Barring yet another massive stroke of luck, the Blackhawks won't be making any more top-five draft picks for a while.

That's the unsettling part of general manager Kyle Davidson's otherwise uplifting decision to progress the Hawks from the tear-down stage to the build-up stage of their rebuild.

Their veteran mercenary-laden roster should be more competitive in 2024-25, and their transition to an increasingly young and even more competitive roster filled with homegrown prospects in 2025-26 and 2026-27 should be exciting.

After posting a bottom-three record in the NHL in both 2022-23 and 2023-24 and making a top-two pick both years, it's about time for the team's loyal fans — as well as the players and staff within the organization — to finally experience some winning. But being more competitive and climbing the standings naturally equates to picking lower in the draft order.

On one hand, Davidson will still have plenty more opportunities to add prospects to the Hawks’ system, including some high-end ones. The Hawks will probably pick in the top 10 or so again in 2025, and they already own the Maple Leafs' first-round pick plus two second-round picks. They already own four picks in the first two rounds of the 2026 draft, too.

On the other hand, Davidson probably won't have another opportunity to add a truly elite prospect to the system. Those are only sure things among the top five or so picks.

That's not a concern on defense, where the Hawks have three elite young players — Alex Vlasic, Artyom Levshunov and Kevin Korchinski — in addition to the usual array of intriguing B-grade prospects (Ethan Del Mastro, Sam Rinzel, etc.) of which every team has some assortment. Their long-term core is comfortably set there.

That's not really a concern in goal, either, because goalies' development curves are so unpredictable that they're rarely taken in the first round anyway. Existing prospects Drew Commesso or Adam Gajan might turn out to be NHL starters, but if not, the Hawks will have the same chance of finding a gem in the later rounds of upcoming drafts as they would have if they tanked for another year.

The area where it could be a concern is up front, because Connor Bedard is the only definitively elite young forward the rebuild has yielded.

Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore have the potential to become first-line-caliber forwards in the NHL, but it's more likely they max out as second-liners. Beyond them, the pipeline is loaded with tons of possible future NHL forwards — including 2024 first-round picks Sacha Boisvert and Marek Vanacker — but none with significant odds of becoming a first-liner.

So yes, this could be a concern, but should it be? Davidson, asked directly about the topic in early July, presented an argument for why it should not.

"I'm really comfortable with where we are," Davidson said. "We've got some really exciting players in the pipeline right now. [Considering] your Ryan Greenes, your Moores, your Nazars and then the guys that are more recently drafted, there's a lot of upside to them, as well.

"And that's just the prospect pool. That's only one way to really improve the team. There's always free agency, trades and other ways, as well. But specifically with the prospect pool, I'm extremely happy with where it is. If we don't add someone above those guys in the drafts to come, then I think we're in a really good spot."

Right now, it's impossible to conclusively determine whether or not Davidson's comfort will be proven justified.

It is possible one of the Hawks' B-grade forward prospects explodes into an elite prospect and becomes Bedard's long-term partner-in-crime. The Stars, a team whose approach Davidson has admired and tried to replicate in numerous ways, offer three great examples of that: Jason Robertson (the 39th pick in 2017), Roope Hintz (49th in 2015) and Wyatt Johnston (23rd in 2021).

It is possible the Hawks find their complementary star through a trade, following the Panthers' approach of acquiring Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart to supplement Aleksander Barkov (the No. 2 pick in 2013). Perhaps that trade will involve swapping one of their surplus defensive prospects for a forward prospect down the road.

And it is possible the Hawks find their complementary star via a splashy free-agent signing, replicating Marian Hossa's impact on Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews in the Hawks' old dynasty era. Davidson isn't wrong about those various paths being options.

But the Hawks certainly won't be finding a Connor McDavid (the No. 1 pick in 2015) for their Leon Draisaitl (the No. 3 pick in 2014) like the Oilers did, as strange as it is to think of McDavid as the complementary one in that duo.

Given that, it is also possible the Hawks never become a championship contender because they never find that second (or third) star forward. If they strike out on all the aforementioned scenarios, their offense might never become versatile and fleshed-out enough to carry them over that final hump.

One can imagine a world where — deep into the playoffs — a stout opponent focuses all their energy on shutting down Bedard, succeeds in doing so and the Hawks, defensively sound but lacking another offensive game-breaker, lose a series of painful 2-1 games.

Of course, it would also theoretically be a risk if the Hawks tanked again in 2024-25 to get another elite forward. Doing so could permanently instill a losing culture, get Bedard injured or cause all sorts of other unknown negative consequences.

At some point in the rebuilding process, a leap of faith must be taken, and now seems like a reasonable enough time to take it. Davidson admitted as such on draft night in June.

"We'll see if we're right," he said then. "I'm not saying we've got this all figured out. But just to set a plan in motion, and then to be able to execute on that plan when so much of it is out of your control, is really exciting."

It's simply worth noting that, inevitably, there will be some risk involved in that leap — thus why it's a leap. And in this case, the Hawks' biggest risk is their lack of a second elite forward prospect.

We'll find out in roughly 2029, give or take a year or two, whether or not it will come back to haunt them.

Note: This week, the Hawks signed their last two remaining restricted free agents, depth defensemen Isaak Phillips and Louis Crevier, to one-year contracts carrying $775,000 salary-cap hits at the NHL level. Their offseason moves are now likely complete.