Chaos in Venezuela May Exacerbate U.S. Border Crisis

Venezuela’s incumbent President Nicolás Maduro declared victory over the opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia in the July 28 national election. This declaration was disputed by the leader of the opposition party, María Corina Machado, who alleged that the election results announced by the regime were falsified.

With unrest already brewing over irregularities in the administration of the election by the Maduro government, Machado urged citizens to take to the streets and secure the transfer of power, writing on X, “Now it is up to us to redeem the truth that EVERYONE knows. We will mobilize. WE WILL WIN!” 

Thousands of Venezuelans across the country rallied in support of the opposition candidates, many in front of the United Nations deputation in the capital of Caracas. The Maduro government cracked down in response, arresting protestors and members of the opposition and deploying the military in some areas.

International support for the opposition party is strong. Many Latin American and other world leaders recognized González as president. With continued and energetic domestic and international opposition however, the fate of the Maduro government remains in doubt.

The conduct of the Venezuelan government led to doubts about the potential integrity of the contest long before election day. While the Biden administration lifted sanctions on Venezuela at the end of 2023 in exchange for the promise of a fair election, by April it became clear that Maduro had no intention of complying with the terms set by the agreement. Sanctions were reimposed. Dozens of opposition politicians and supporters who were supposed to be released remained political prisoners, and more were arrested in the months leading up to the election. Additionally, the leader of the united coalition of opposition parties, Machado, was disqualified by the government from running in the presidential race.

The conduct of the Venezuelan government on the election day confirmed the fears of the opposition, as election observers were forcibly expelled from some polling places, other polling places were opened or closed without warning, and yet others were kept open later than legally permitted. In most polling stations, however, opposition activists were able to maintain their position as election observers until after the polls closed, and were able to obtain and digitize the paper records from the machines used to tally the votes.

The voting machines used by Venezuela for the election provide two ways of verifying the results. After voters make their selection of candidates, the machine prints a paper ballot for the voter to read and confirm. This paper ballot is then deposited in a box at the polling station. After polling places close, the machine prints off a receipt containing each of the votes cast at that machine, which, according to Venezuelan law, must be made available to observers from all parties participating in the election.

While election observers at polling stations were tallying the results from the voting machine receipts, the paper ballots were delivered to the Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE), which is responsible for administering elections and processing the results. The CNE declared Maduro the winner the next day, claiming that he received 51.2 percent of the vote, with González receiving 44.2 percent and other candidates receiving 4.6 percent.

These results were immediately challenged by the opposition, which claims to have collected receipts from 73 percent of polling places. With those records, they estimate that the actual final proportion of votes cast was 67 percent in favor of González, with Maduro receiving only 30 percent and other candidates 2 percent. To support their claims, Machado announced the launch of a website where Venezuelans can enter their government ID number and find an image of their voting record, if the vote was registered at one of the precincts where observers were able to review the results.

Both the opposition and international observers have asked the CNE to release the paper ballots and other voting details to provide evidence for their claims of Maduro’s victory. The CNE has, however, not released any information other than the claimed vote counts it assessed on Monday.

The results released by the opposition are also in line with the results of exit polling conducted by Edison Research, where González polled at 65 percent support, with 31 percent for Maduro.

Confident that González won the election, the opposition took to the streets across the nation to support their candidate’s installment as president of Venezuela. Thousands gathered in front of the United Nations deputation in Caracas on Tuesday at a rally intended to convince the Maduro government to concede. González and Machado addressed the demonstration.

In response, Maduro accused the opposition of being right-wing extremists seeking an “escalation of violence,” and announced that measures would be taken to restore order to the country. The vice president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, denounced the protests as “fascism aimed against the humble people” of the nation.

The government has deployed security forces in various areas across the country and made a number of arrests of protestors and opposition leaders, including the party’s political coordinator Freddy Superlano. In a post on X on Wednesday, Machado claimed that the country has seen “more than 177 unlawful arrests, 11 abductions and at least 16 political murders in the last 48 hours.”

Opposition protests continue across the nation.

While a few countries–most notably Russia and China– released statements congratulating Maduro on his victory, the international response to the Venezuelan election has been strongly favorable to the opposition. Maduro’s regional allies, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, released a joint statement calling on the CNE to release more detailed information on the election, while several other Latin American countries released energetic condemnations of the Maduro government. In response, the Venezuelan government expelled diplomats from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and Uruguay.

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken released a statement Thursday, saying:

Given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and, most importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election….

We congratulate Edmundo González Urrutia on his successful campaign.  Now is the time for the Venezuelan parties to begin discussions on a respectful, peaceful transition in accordance with Venezuelan electoral law and the wishes of the Venezuelan people.

This response will continue to sour relations with Maduro’s government in Venezuela, which were already in decline after the April reimposition of sanctions.

If the Maduro government weathers the current outbreak of civil unrest, regional tensions are likely to increase as more political refugees flee the country. More than 7 million refugees have already left the country, some seeking to leave behind political persecution, many more the abysmal quality of life resulting from the socialism of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, which has devastated the country and left it poorer today than it was in 1945. Tensions between Venezuela and Colombia have already flared over refugees in the past, and more strife will result if protests prove fruitless at dislodging the incumbent.

A new flood of Venezuelan refugees would inevitably result in many seeking to cross the border into the United States, where hundreds of thousands already reside, further exacerbating a southern border crisis that has spiraled out of control in the past few years. With illegal immigration ranking as a top concern of voters this cycle, the results of the presidential election in Venezuela may well have echoes in the American presidential election this November.

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