Northern Lights build in strength, more activity expected

Americans may be seeing more of the Northern Lights over the next year.

TOPEKA (KSNT) - Northern Lights enthusiasts have had a lot to look forward to in 2024 as solar activity builds, leading to more frequent and impressive displays of the Aurora Borealis in the night sky.

Many Americans were treated to rare displays of the Northern Lights earlier this year during periods of increased solar activity. Solar System Ambassador Brenda Culbertson with NASA told 27 News the reasons for this are tied to some unexpected outbursts of energy from the Sun which is interacting with Earth's magnetic field.

Signs are pointing to a continuing trend of this solar activity, meaning many people on Earth may be seeing the lights overhead more often than they may be used to. So what can people expect going forward?

Solar Cycle 25

Culbertson said the Sun is currently in Solar Cycle 25 which was projected to be a "fairly weak cycle" in a 2020 forecast released by the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel made up of NASA and NOAA representatives. Each cycle lasts around 11 years with the previous one, Solar Cycle 24, displaying only 114 sunspots.

"We are currently in Solar Cycle 25, and it was not expected to be as active as it has been," Culbertson said. "A Solar Cycle is, on average, an 11-year period where the solar activity increases and decreases because of the magnetic field. Solar Cycle began in December of 2019, and it has shown great energy earlier than expected. Sunspots are evidence of the increase in solar activity, and July 2024 saw 196.5. That is the greatest number of sunspots in one month for many years."

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) monitors activity in Solar Cycle 25 by keeping close tabs on what the Sun is doing. This typically involves observations of sunspots and erupting solar flares which, if directed towards Earth, could send solar particles towards our planet. These particles interact with our magnetic field, producing displays of the Aurora Borealis.

Storms in Space

Culbertson said solar particles can do more than bring about displays of the Northern Lights. Depending on the severity, solar particles can cause disturbances to Earth's electrical grids and communication systems.

"If Earth is in line to receive some of the particles, several things can happen," Culbertson said. "Satellites can be damaged from radiation. Astronauts can also be harmed if they receive the radiation. In Earth's atmosphere, radio waves and other communication signals can be knocked out. In the past, whole electric grids have been hit and power disrupted for large regions."

Culbertson insists that only the strongest geomagnetic storms caused by these particles would bring about serious problems for systems on Earth. The NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) monitors this activity, ranking geomagnetic storms on a scale of G1 to G5. Strong showings of the Northern Lights occurred earlier this year in May and July and let people in the lower Midwestern states see the aurora.

"Along with the potential damage from high energy solar outbursts, the relationship between the magnetic disturbance and Earth's atmosphere can cause strong auroral activity," Culbertson said. "In the past during one of the strong impacts, aurora was seen at Earth's equator."

What to expect from the Aurora Borealis in the near future

Culbertson said more solar activity is expected in the near future as 2025 approaches. Earlier predictions did not show Solar Cycle 25 as being very exciting as the previous one was not very active. However, the current cycle "has shown unexpected strength" and could just be getting warmed up.

"July of 2024 has seen some of the highest amount of solar activity on record, but there is a chance for it to increase over the months," Culbertson said.

The last time scientists recorded this much activity was in 2003 during the Great Halloween Storm of mid-October and early November. While this brought issues for orbiting spacecraft, TV and radio services, it also gave many on Earth the chance to see powerful showings of the Aurora Borealis.

"It was a series of solar storms, including the strongest solar flare recorded by GOES satellites," Culbertson said. "World-wide communications were affected, satellites were damaged, and aurora was seen at low latitudes. Astronauts on board the International Space Station were put in their safe places during the impact, and on Earth, power outages occurred in spots. It was a very strong solar storm in Solar Cycle 23, two cycles ago."

Culbertson, however, said the increase in solar activity shouldn't be a cause for worry. Some communication issues may arise during the stronger geomagnetic storms.

"People should not be worried about the strength of Solar Cycle 25, but it could cause outage of power if a strong, or a series of inflows of solar material collides with Earth," Culbertson said. "Communication outage is probably the most wide-spread affect from such an impact."

People can keep up with the latest solar activity through the Solar Cycle 25 blog online by clicking here. You can learn more about space weather and how it impacts Earth by going to the SPWC's website.

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