Toothless: Mariners vs. Tigers Series Preview
The Mariners continue their homestand with a three-game set against the Tigers.
The Mariners started off their long homestand on a high note, winning two of three from the Phillies while showing some newfound offensive competence and resilience. Over their last nine games — coinciding with the acquisition of Randy Arozarena — the M’s have scored 6.3 runs per game. More importantly, the Astros have continued to stumble and Seattle has opened up a 1.5 game lead in the division. Outside of a three-game series against the White Sox, Houston has a pretty tough schedule in August, giving the Mariners an opportunity to build on that slight lead they currently own.
The Tigers actually finished in second place in the AL Central last year, though they were still six games under .500 and nine games behind the Twins. Still, that finish gave them some hope that they’d finally be able to break out of their long rebuilding cycle this year. That hasn’t happened. Tarik Skubal will probably win the Cy Young award if he finishes the year healthy, and the rest of their rotation has been solid, but they’ve been completely unable to provide any offensive support. That sounds familiar.
Detroit already had a pretty punchless lineup, but they’re currently missing All-Star Riley Greene thanks to a hamstring injury. They also don’t have Spencer Torkelson in their lineup after demoting him to the minors about a month ago as he continued to struggle against big league pitching. That means their best hitter currently in their lineup is … super-utility man Matt Vierling? Rookie Colt Keith? At least the young second baseman has turned a corner in his development since the calendar turned to July — Keith has put up a .301/.385/.573 slash line (166 wRC+) since July 1. The other rookies on the roster have been a mixed bag; Wenceel Pérez has shown a little promise as a tablesetter and Justyn-Henry Malloy brings big power and even bigger swings and misses.
Probable Pitchers
Keider Montero wasn’t one of the Tigers heralded pitching prospects — he ranked 22 on their preseason list — but he’s been pressed into service as they’ve dealt with a number of injuries to their regular starters. He was a J2 signing way back in 2016 out of Venezuela and has steadily developed through Detroit’s farm system. He’s got pretty good arm strength and can really spin a breaking ball, but his below average command is a critical weakness. Instead of wildly throwing the ball toward the plate, he fills the zone with less than ideal precision, leading to a low walk rate along with plenty of meatballs for batters to crush.
After a scary elbow injury kept him sidelined for most of last year, he returned part way through the season throwing better than ever. Across 15 starts, he posted a 2.80 ERA and a 2.00 FIP and generally looked like one of the better starters in the American League. He’s picked up exactly where he left off this year and is on pace to win the Cy Young award. The key to his breakout has been a significant jump in velocity — surprising considering the elbow injury that he dealt with last year — and the continued development of his phenomenal changeup. That one-two punch is deadly and he still has three other above average pitches to mix in to keep batters honest.
Kenta Maeda signed with the Tigers in the offseason with the hope that he could provide some solid veteran innings for the young ballclub. Unfortunately, it seems like father time has quickly caught up with him this year. He’s been mostly healthy, but a slowly deteriorating fastball has undermined any success he might find with his secondary offerings. He’s turning to his splitter and slider a lot more often this year, but even those average-ish pitches can’t make up for all the damage he allows off his fastball.
The Big Picture:
The Astros lost their series against the Rays last weekend and lost the first game of a big series against the Rangers yesterday. Tampa Bay actually sits ahead of them in the Wild Card standings despite all the selling they did at the trade deadline.