Bush's loss raises questions for progressives: 5 takeaways from Tuesday's primaries

Progressives suffered a major blow in Tuesday night’s primaries as Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) became the second “squad” member to lose to a challenger this cycle. 

Coming just hours after Vice President Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate in a move seen as a win for the progressive wing of the party, Bush’s loss put internal party frictions over the Israel-Hamas war on full display.

Along with Missouri, voters also headed to the polls in Kansas, Michigan and Washington state to set up key matchups for November.

Here are five takeaways:

Cori Bush loss raises questions for the “squad”

Tuesday night’s biggest showdown was in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, where Bush was projected to lose to St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell. 

Bush’s defeat makes her the second member of the squad to lose reelection after Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) lost his seat in New York earlier this year. 

Bell, who beat a longtime incumbent to win his prosecutor seat back in 2018, dropped his Senate bid to vie for Bush’s spot in the House this cycle. The race drew heavy outside spending amid growing anger over Bush’s stance on Israel as well as other controversies surrounding her, including a federal investigation into how she was using campaign funds. 

Her defeat will raise further questions about the future of progressive power in Congress and could put the squad in a defensive posture heading into November and beyond. In particular, it could force progressives to reckon with how to defeat well-funded primary challengers such as Bell.

With that said, not all of the news this election cycle was bad for the squad — other high-profile members, like Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) are likely to win reelection handily. And another progressive, Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.), won her primary challenge earlier this year despite being outspent.

Another big win for AIPAC

Bush’s primary loss was also the latest victory for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the pro-Israel lobbying organization that has increasingly flexed its muscles in primaries over the last couple of years.

AIPAC’s super PAC spent big to unseat her in the primary, reportedly throwing more than $8 million into the race. The group had also spent millions to elevate Westchester County Executive George Latimer in the race for Bowman’s seat in New York’s 16th Congressional District, fueling progressive outrage. 

The group’s opposition to Bush came in response to her vocal criticism of Israel’s war against the terrorist organization Hamas in Gaza.

She was one of just a few House members who opposed a resolution that expressed support for Israel last year, and when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress last month, Bush called it “sickening that Congress gave him a standing ovation.”  

As Bowman was unseated, Bush called AIPAC a “threat to Democracy” and accused the group of working to “silence the voices of progress and justice.” 

Bush’s primary is just the latest instance of the Israel-Hamas war looming large over the Democratic Party in races up and down ballot this cycle. Before he exited the White House race, Biden faced substantial backlash over the administration’s handling of the conflict. 

A key Senate race is solidified 

Tuesday night solidified the Senate race in Michigan in November, one of the key contests that will help determine control of the upper chamber.

Three-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) was projected to win the Democratic primary in her bid to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), while Trump-backed former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) won his Republican primary. 

Rogers was recruited by the Senate GOP campaign arm to run for the open seat, with the party seeing it as a key pickup opportunity. Republicans are giddy over what some say is the party’s best map in years to win the Senate, which Democrats currently hold by a razor-thin majority.

Slotkin is running with Stabenow’s endorsement and forecasts from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ show her with a 66 percent chance of beating Rogers in November.  

The Great Lakes State is also a crucial battleground in the presidential race.

After Biden saw significant protest votes from his own party in the Michigan primary earlier this year, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted the Senate race to a “toss up.” Now, with just over 90 days to go until Election Day, it’s unclear how the newly-formed Harris-Walz ticket will impact the fight for the upper-chamber seat, though many Democrats argue the new VP’s Midwestern roots will help the party in the traditional “blue wall” states.  

A pro-impeachment Republican battles for survival

One of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack is fighting to hold on to his seat in Washington state’s 4th Congressional District. 

As of late Tuesday night, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) looked poised to advance out of the crowded nonpartisan primary alongside Trump-backed Republican Jerrod Sessler, teeing up a competitive general contest. However, there were still many ballots left to count as of publication time and Newhouse was running not too far ahead of GOP candidate Tiffany Smiley, who was in third place.

Newhouse defeated Sessler and Trump-endorsed Loren Culp in the primary two years ago, and went on to win reelection to the red central-Washington seat in the midterms. 

But his impeachment vote has made him a continued political target. In backing Sessler this cycle, Trump called Newhouse “a weak and pathetic RINO” who “voted to, for no reason, Impeach me.” 

Newhouse is one of just two pro-impeachment GOP lawmakers left in the lower chamber, and his fall contest will be a test of survival against Trump’s fury at the Republicans who turned against him after Jan. 6.

Election conspiracies might have cost Kansas official his office

The sheriff of Kansas’s most populous county appeared poised to lose his reelection bid on Tuesday amid frustration over a controversial investigation into alleged election fraud.

Johnson County Sheriff Calvin Hayden kickstarted an investigation after the 2020 election, despite claims from local officials that there was no widespread fraud, as reported by The Associated Press. 

Hayden paused the investigation last month after producing no criminal charges and stoking suspicion toward state and local election systems, The Kansas City Star reported.  

On Tuesday, Hayden appeared headed for defeat in his GOP primary to Republican Doug Bedford, a former U.S. Navy SEAL who served as Hayden’s undersheriff from 2017 to 2021. He’ll face Democrat Byron Roberson, the police chief of Prairie Village, in the fall. 

The incumbent’s likely defeat comes after he ran unopposed four years earlier, and signals divisions among Republicans in the state surrounding claims of election fraud. 

Former President Trump has refused to commit to accepting 2024 results and has continued to tout his debunked claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, while some in the party have pressed fellow Republicans to move on from the last cycle.