Mass GP industrial action could drive 1.2million extra patients to A&E and cost £570million, NHS bosses fear
GP industrial action could drive 1.2million more people to A&E, NHS bosses fear.
Family doctors are planning the first mass “work to rule” protest for decades.
The British Medical Association says they are underpaid and overworked with dangerously long patient lists.
Thousands across England are set to slash the number of appointments available, stop working overtime and refer more patients straight to hospital.
Leaked projections by NHS England suggest the action could cost half a billion pounds.
If GPs reduce their workload by 30 per cent between August and November, it could lead to 1.2million more visits to A&E, according to a report leaked to the Health Service Journal.
Casualty departments are already busier than ever this year with more than two million visitors per month and a record 2.4m in May.
Another 430,000 people would be added to hospital waiting lists, 1.8m more would go to pharmacies and 1.8m more would call NHS 111, the report estimated.
That scenario could cost the health service £570million.
Strikes by nurses, junior doctors and consultants are already estimated to have cost more than £1.5billion.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “I understand why GPs chose to ballot in opposition to the previous government, because under the Conservatives general practice was driven into the ground.
“And we ended up in a situation where patients couldn’t get a GP appointment, and yet qualified GPs couldn’t get a job. That’s how absurd things became.
“I think I’ve shown in just the first four weeks of this Labour Government my determination to work with GPs and with primary care to fix the front door to the NHS, and so as far as I’m concerned this collective action is unnecessary, because we have now a Government that is committed to working with GPs to turn the situation around, to rebuild general practice for the benefit of patients.
“And the risk with this collective action is that it’s not the Conservatives that are punished for their failure, it’s patients and other parts of the NHS (that) will be picking up the pieces.
“I urge GPs to work with the Government to rebuild general practice.”
Speaking on a visit to Leeds Cancer Centre, he added: “We’ve already taken immediate action to deal with GP unemployment, responding to the mass petition that was sent in about GP unemployment.
“I’m not pretending that that is the total fix of the problem, but I think it is an indication of serious intent.
“My message to GPs is: I understand you’ve been stretched to breaking point.
“I want a much better relationship with GPs than the previous Conservative government had.
“And we can only turn around the NHS and make it fit for the future if we work together as a team, which is why I want to see an end to industrial action and actually an end to GPs having simply a contractual relationship with the Government.
“I want to have a serious professional partnership, and that’s not just with GPs, that’s with staff right across the NHS, because we’re going to need to work as a team to get our NHS back on its feet and make sure it’s fit for the future.”
Having had my life saved by the NHS, I can’t think of a better way of spending my life than saving our NHS
Wes Streeting
An NHS spokesperson said: “As collective action has only just started, it’s not clear yet what the impact is.
“We are continuing to work with GPs, the BMA and the government to resolve and end the action.”
The row erupted over a new contract which saw GP services given a 1.9 per cent funding increase for 2024/25.
The BMA argued that many practices would struggle to stay financially viable as a result.
GPs launched a formal dispute over the issue in April after a referendum carried out by the union found 99 per cent of 19,000 GPs rejected the contract.
As a result, GPs voted overwhelmingly in favour of staging collective action – 98.3 per cent of 8,500 GPs voted in favour of action.
As part of the action, GPs can choose from a list of 10 actions, with practices able to choose how many they implement.
These include GPs limiting the number of patients they see each day to 25, choosing to not perform work they are not formally contracted to do, refusing to share patient data unless it is in the best interest of the patient, and referring patients directly to specialists rather than following NHS processes.
Practices could also potentially ignore “rationing” restrictions by “prescribing whatever is in the patient’s best interest”.
‘CRITICAL STEP’
Dr Katie Bramall-Stainer, chairwoman of the BMA’s general practitioners committee for England, said: “We have had some positive conversations with the new Health Secretary in recent weeks, and there is an opportunity to now work together to fix general practice, as a critical step in repairing the NHS.
“Our plans were put in place in March, and our timeline confirmed prior to the announcement of the General Election.
“It is an inalienable fact that practices are continuing to close, and experienced GPs leaving the NHS workforce.
“In this context, our collective action is designed to mitigate these two measures, with the support of over 98 per cent of BMA GP partner members who voted.
“The new Health Secretary wants to rebuild trust, and we agree. Our members’ action has been planned to be a ‘slow burn’ precisely so the new Government has time to consider and consult with us on solutions.
“An immediate first step would be to ensure the six per cent DDRB uplift is fully funded including on-costs, so that practices can afford to pass on the Government’s stated pay uplift to their staff without collapsing more practices.”
What it means for you
GPs in England have voted overwhelmingly in favour of taking unprecedented industrial action, but what does this mean and what are the potential impacts on patients?
More than 8,500 family doctors took part in a ballot by the British Medical Association (BMA), with 98.3 per cent voting in favour of collective action.
– Why are GPs staging industrial action?
The BMA has argued that the new GP contract, which will see services given a 1.9 per cent funding increase for 2024/25, means many surgeries will struggle to stay financially viable.
GPs launched a formal dispute over the issue in April after a referendum carried out by the union found 99 per cent of 19,000 GPs rejected the contract.
The ballot, which closed earlier this week, received votes from more than 8,500 GPs, according to the BMA, with 98.3 per cent voting in favour of collective action.
– When will it begin?
Collective action by GPs in England begins on August 1.
– How long is action expected to last?
It could potentially last for months. Earlier this week, Dr Katie Bramall-Stainer, chairwoman of the BMA’s England General Practitioners Committee, said that action has been designed to be “easy, sustainable and effective” because it could last “week on week on week, month, on month on month”.
– What action can GPs take during this period?
The BMA is recommending a list of 10 actions to surgeries, with practices able to choose how many they implement.
These include GPs limiting the number of patients seen per day to 25, potentially choosing to stop performing work they are not formally contracted to do, and choosing not to share patient data unless it is in the best interests of the patient.
The BMA also recommends surgeries stop “rationing referrals, investigations, and admissions?” by referring patients for specialist care when clinically appropriate.
– Will I still be able to see my GP?
Yes. GP practices are still required to open from 8am to 6.30pm Monday to Friday during collective action.
NHS England has urged patients to come forward for care as usual.
– How will patients be impacted?
Dr Bramall-Stainer previously said if action is taken effectively “it will bring the NHS to a standstill very quickly – but not for patients (for) all the NHS admin, the policymakers who have put in place these decisions that aren’t helping patients.”
However, experts have warned collective action could impact the public and the wider health service.
NHS Providers, which represents NHS trusts, said the action “will hit patients hard as wider NHS services feel the knock-on effects” while think tank The King’s Fund said the action could result in “thousands” of people turning to services like 111, pharmacies and A&E departments.
Writing in The Daily Telegraph, Health Secretary Wes Streeting also warned collective action “will only punish patients”.
– When was the last time GPs took action?
The last time GPs took “collective action” was in 1964 when family doctors collectively handed in undated resignations to the Wilson government, according to Dr Bramall-Stainer.
This led to reform including the Family Doctor Charter of 1965.
A proportion of GPs staged industrial action in 2012 in protest against increases in pension contributions and a later retirement age for doctors.
Estimates suggest that between a fifth and a third of practises took part in the action.
Dr Bramall-Stainer has previously said she aspires to talk to the current Government about a Family Doctor Charter 2025 – 60 years on from the original.
Mr Streeting was asked about industrial action while on his visit to Leeds, where he saw a number of new technologies being used in the health service.
He said: “I’m in Leeds today because they’re leading the way on using some of the latest treatments and technologies to diagnose and treat cancer.
“And having gone through kidney cancer myself, this is an issue that is kind of very close to my heart, and certainly spurs on my drive to make sure that the NHS is there for everyone who needs it, like it was for me.
“Having had my life saved by the NHS, I can’t think of a better way of spending my life than saving our NHS.
“Actually I have been very blunt about the fact that the NHS is broken and that we need to work together as a team to get it back on its feet and make sure it’s fit for the future.
“And I think it’s important that whilst recognising the enormous challenges in the NHS, we also inspire trust and confidence and hope that it can be rebuilt through some of the outstanding nationally, and in some cases internationally, leading work that’s taking place.”
Mr Streeting spoke about a number of new developments at Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, adding: “We need to make sure that the NHS is a great partner for medtech and life sciences in the UK, but also around the world, and that we are able to get the latest treatments and technologies proven and then deployed for the benefit of UK patients and be world leading in this area.”
The BMA has been approached for comment.