For Venezuela and Maduro, this time might really be different

Nicolás Maduro’s blatant fraud in the July 28 Venezuelan elections was predictable. Indeed, the deeply unpopular Maduro calculated that, with international attention focused on two wars and the upcoming U.S. presidential election, his regime had the leeway to get away with it. He could rig the results and cement another six-year term for the Chavista party.

Before the ballots were cast, analysts wondered why Maduro did not take a page from the Nicaraguan playbook, whereby Daniel Ortega’s regime simply canceled the registration of all credible opposition political parties and jailed opposition leaders on trumped-up charges.

True, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and her selected replacement, an octogenarian academic with no prior political experience, were barred from registering. But by allowing Edmundo Gonzalez to be on the ballot, the regime estimated that intimidation tactics and the full weight of state resources would be sufficient to produce a favorable outcome.

The popular and spontaneous reaction after the fraud was consummated in the early hours of Monday, July 29 indicates that Socialist party elites overplayed their hand.

Despite the anger and frustration expressed by citizens in the streets, crystallized by the toppling of Hugo Chavez statues across the country, some analysts have forecast that “very little is going to happen,” suggesting Maduro is a lock to retain power. However, their analysis seems to discount three factors that make the current situation genuinely different from the past.

Firstly, previous elections were either uncontested by the opposition (2018) or very close, as in 2013. In each case, the situation made Maduro's claim of victory at least plausible. This time, credible exit polls had opposition candidate Gonzalez trouncing Maduro, 65 percent to 31 percent. Opposition figures from 81 percent of electoral tally sheets give Gonzalez a 67 percent to 30 percent lead, with the data available online for the world to see.

Second, the opposition is united and disciplined. Unlike previous leaders in charge of the opposition coalition, Maria Corina Machado is competent, trustworthy and not prone to amateurish improvisations. Her primary victory in October of last year, with more than 90 percent of the vote, gave her leadership unquestionable authority, which she has used to great effect. Having tens of thousands of tally sheets online for the world to see less than 24 hours after the vote is a masterstroke that took everyone by surprise. Even party apparatchiks were caught off guard.

Third, the spontaneous nature of the protests all over the country, reminiscent of the 1989 foundational myth of Chavismo, delivered a powerful albeit symbolic blow to the regime’s narrative. Unlike past events, this time, the protests did not start in middle-class and affluent suburbs of large cities but rather in Petare, Venezuela’s and South America’s biggest slum. This time, public anger is broad-based and resolute.

Undoubtedly, because Maduro relies on a well-oiled and Cuban-sponsored coercive apparatus, a clean surrender or organized revolt is unlikely. Violent repression at the hands of security forces and  “colectivos” (government-armed civilian gangs) have already been spreading chaos and mayhem, with 11 confirmed killed and more than 900 arrests in just the first days of the protests, according to legal NGO Foro Penal.

However, analysts miss the forest for the trees by focusing on the obvious.

Internationally, Maduro is lashing out. The Monday after the election, the Venezuelan government expelled the diplomatic delegations of seven Latin American countries. Even prominent regime-invited observers, former Colombian President Ernesto Samper and former Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernández, called for the electoral authority to publish all tally sheets.

Few democratic countries in the region, outside of regime clients and established autocracies, have recognized the election. The refusal of ideological allies like Colombia and Brazil to validate Maduro’s claim to victory highlights how blatant the fraud is, to say nothing of Colombia’s particular concern about a new wave of disillusioned Venezuelan migrants.

Given Machado’s skill in managing opposition affairs, negotiations for a “golden bridge” for Maduro and his inner circle may be underway. Success is difficult to gauge due to “oligarchic factionalism” within Chavismo, the regime’s violent repression of dissent, and their intent to imprison Machado and González Urrutia. However, increasing internal and external pressure on regime figures in the coming weeks may make holding onto power more costly than surrendering it.

With all eyes on Venezuela, what makes this time different is María Corina Machado’s leadership and a population thoroughly fed up after decades of misrule. While the chances of democracy triumphing may seem negligible, analysts would do well to recognize that Venezuela’s Iron Lady is cut from a different cloth.

Martin Rodriguez Rodriguez is a Washington, D.C.-based Latin American specialist and a 2024 Harvard Kennedy School graduate.