4 signs the peaceful transfer of power is in danger

My college history professor often yelled his favorite quote, from Winston Churchill, so we would never forget: “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." It comes to mind now as American voters will soon elect a new president and the events of Jan. 6, 2021, have been nearly forgotten.

The Wall Street Journal recently interviewed a representative group of first-time college student voters aged 18 to 21 about issues impacting their presidential choice. Not one student mentioned Jan. 6 or related threats to democracy.

Thankfully, a January 2024 Washington Post poll found that 55 percent of Americans believed Jan. 6 was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten. Meanwhile, the remaining 45 percent have forgotten or rationalized why the 2024 Republican presidential nominee was indicted last August for a conspiracy to remain in power after being soundly rejected by voters in the 2020 election.

Allegedly, the then-president’s elaborate scheme encouraged a Trump army of supporters to organize a violent assault on the U.S. Capitol. Trump has successfully dragged out appeals and motions and has yet to be held accountable. Therefore, in November, voters will render the verdict.

What has made America great again every four years since its founding is that the peaceful transfer of presidential power is normal and expected. Beginning in 1788 our nation has held a presidential election in times of war and peace every four years. On Inauguration Day, every winner has placed his hand on the Bible and sworn an oath of allegiance to the Constitution.

Although President Biden’s inauguration was ultimately peaceful, the heavy military presence throughout Washington reflected a nation under siege after Jan. 6.

Six months from now, our nation should start a new streak of peaceful transfers. Yet, if Trump loses, President Biden is “not confident” of one. Here are four signs why January 2025 could be turbulent.

First, there is a dangerous expectation that if Trump loses, the election will have been rigged or stolen. I receive countless Trump campaign or Trump-allied organization emails, texts, and social media messages warning how the Democrats are planning to steal the election, so “donate now.” Since Trump's followers believe that only Trump can “save America,” he cannot lose by any fault of his own. Hence, the prospect of another “stolen” election is a fundraising bonanza, sowing the seeds of inaugural political unrest.

Second, in an interview during the Republican National Convention, Trump campaign co-manager Chris LaCivita said about his boss: “It’s not over until he puts his hand on the Bible and takes the oath. It’s not over until then. It’s not over on Election Day, it’s over on Inauguration Day, cause I wouldn’t put anything past anybody.”

LaCivita is gearing up for an epic electoral fight, blatantly warning that only if Trump wins will he accept the election results. Trump has made similar statements — our Founding Fathers' worst nightmare — because the transfer of presidential power requires acquiescing to the will of the people.

It is immoral and un-American to assume without evidence that the opposing team will cheat and rob your guy of the presidency. Yet LaCivita’s message barely made a political ripple. Even just 20 years ago, such a statement from a major-party presidential campaign manager would have outraged the candidate and the nation, resulting in his termination.

Third, on July 29, Trump was interviewed by Fox News host Laura Ingraham. She asked about remarks he made at a Christian voter gathering that some interpreted as dictatorial— eliminating the need for voting. Trump told the Christians, “You have to vote on Nov. 5. After that, you don’t have to worry about voting anymore. I don’t care, because we’re going to fix it. The country will be fixed …”

Such bravado prompted Ingraham to ask Trump, “But you will leave office after four years?” He replied, “Of course. By the way, and I did last time. I kept hearing, he’s not going to leave. He’s not going to leave. Look, they are the ones that are a threat to democracy.”

Who are "they?" Again, imagine pre-Trump presidential campaigns. If either candidate called the other a “threat to democracy,” voters and the media would have been outraged. Moreover, the irony of Trump accusing his opponent (“they”) of being a “threat to democracy,” after he was indicted for trying to overturn the 2020 election, proves that Trump has mastered projecting his behavior onto others. Should he lose, this does not bode well for a peaceful transfer of power.

Fourth, both parties are shying away from featuring Jan. 6 in 2024 campaign ads. Has Jan. 6 been normalized and baked into the firmament of the election? Voters appear to have moved on and could explain why Trump announced he would “pardon the J-6 hostages.”

With the delay of his trial and the July boost from the Supreme Court’s confounding presidential immunity ruling, Trump has managed to turn himself and the Jan. 6 attackers into victims while Republicans applaud. Furthermore, the Supreme Court justices have diminished the importance of Jan. 6, which could jeopardize the next transfer of power.

Win or lose, Kamala Harris will be the star on Jan. 6, 2025. As vice president, she will certify the Electoral College and announce herself or Trump as president. If the latter, given the Supreme Court ruling that nearly everything is an official act, presidential guardrails have been removed. Democracy is fragile, so voters beware: “Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

Myra Adams served on the creative team of two GOP presidential campaigns in 2004 and 2008.