Thailand’s Shinawatra dynasty back on top, but for how long?
But the risks of frontline Thai power have been spotlighted in recent weeks by judges who have once more shown they are willing to shape the politics of a kingdom trapped in a two decade-long political crisis.
Paetongtarn is the 37-year-old daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, who has been at the center of Thailand’s political breakdown since he won a landslide election in 2001.
On Sunday she formally became Thailand's 31st prime minister after the unexpected removal of real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin from office, by the Constitutional Court on an ethics probe.
Paetongtarn was voted in by parliament, despite having limited direct political experience and never having been elected to office by the public. In her first press conference she insisted she will be her ‘’own person, with her own goals.”
But few believe that Thaksin, a 75-year-old billionaire who was twice prime minister before being dumped from office by a 2006 coup, will hold back from pulling the strings of government.
He returned to Thailand on August 22 of last year after a 15-year exile in an apparent deal to share power with his former arch-royalist enemies and block the pro-democracy Move Forward Party (MFP) from government.
‘’Thaksin is still very much actively involved behind the scenes,’’ said Verapat Pariyawong, who teaches Thai law and politics at the University of London SOAS and also advises Thai parliamentary committees. ‘’His daughter is about to take on one of the toughest jobs that he knows all too well.”
Shinawatra parties were once seen as the populist champion of the poor and therefore a threat to the royalist elite, which hit them with two coups and endless court cases.
But the democracy cause has been taken up by Move Forward, which won the last election in 2023 and shocked the Thaksin-founded Pheu Thai party by beating it into second place.
‘’Since the Pheu Thai party lost the election their only priority is to win the next one, everything else is just a side dish,” Sirote Klampaiboon, an independent scholar and political commentator, told VOA. “Their main course is winning the next election.”
Move Forward was dissolved a week before Srettha was removed from office by the same court, the latest move by what Sirote described as Thailand’s ‘’parallel powers’’ that favor a conservative settlement to power.
The MFP has rebranded as the People’s Party and is setting its sights on rebuilding toward a decisive victory in the 2027 elections.
Damaged brand
Paetongtarn’s first task is to appoint a cabinet that reflects the interests of the coalition government, with powerful conservative factions likely to jostle for the biggest ministries.
Thailand’s economy is also sluggish and the removal of Srettha’s government has put into doubt a nearly $14 billion digital cash handout to stimulate the economy as well as big infrastructure projects such as a “land bridge” across the south of the country to cut shipping times from Asia as well as a plan to legalize mega-casinos to boost tax revenue.
In her first address as prime minister, Paetongtarn said she is “devoted to making every square inch of Thailand a land of opportunities, where everyone dares to dream, create and to write their own future.”
The problem, Paetongtarn’s critics say, is many Thais no longer see their country as a place of opportunity. Household debt is at record levels [over 90 percent], wages are low and pro-democracy voters say the economy is divided by monopoly businesses and political power shared by a narrow elite, which is for now again dominated by Paetongtarn’s family.
“The Shinawatra ‘brand’ is unsellable these days, the populist policies proved that they don’t work because 20 years gone by and people are still poor and indebted,” Aat Pisanwanich, an independent scholar and international economy expert, told VOA. “Under this government, everything will be the same if not worse… based on many interviews by Paetongtarn, she has little grasp of our economic problems.”
There may also be threats lurking from inside Thailand’s politics where loyalties and alliances quickly change and the courts are always on standby to intervene.
Analyst Sirote says the government will be preparing for potential “nail-biting circumstances” such as cabinet picks being scrutinized for past wrongdoings or any dubious assets Paetongtarn may have.
But you can never rule out a family that has had three direct members as prime minister and two others heading its parties, he adds.
“Even if something were to happen to Paethongtarn politically, the Shinawatra brand will not just disappear from Thai politics.”