Hundreds of Gold Derby users have placed their bets for the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards, scheduled for September 11. And as of this writing it appears that Taylor Swift will make history by winning Video of the Year for “Fortnight” featuring Post Malone. It would be her third consecutive victory and her fifth overall. Both of those are unprecedented feats.
Swift won Video of the Year for the first time for “Bad Blood” featuring Kendrick Lamar in 2015. Then she prevailed again for “You Need to Calm Down” in 2019. But Swifties have only increased their voting power since then, as evidenced by her two straight wins for “All Too Well” in 2022 and “Anti-Hero” in 2023. What’s more, Swift achieved almost a clean sweep of her nominations in 2023, taking home nine Moon Person statues. As the VMAs are fan-voted in most categories, it’s hard to bet against her.
Currently Swift and Malone lead the Video of the Year race with 11/2 odds. Among those betting on her are all four Gold Derby Editors who have made their predictions thus far (with more to come), 18 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s VMAs and 17 of our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ VMA prediction results.
If anyone can beat her, it’s Ariana Grande, who ranks second with 13/2 odds for her video “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” This is her fourth nomination in the top category, but she hasn’t won it yet, which could motivate her fans to turn out for her in larger numbers. Five of our Top Users and seven of our All-Stars are predicting just that. So while it would be an upset, it’s not outside the realm of possibility. Swift’s fans are devoted, but so are Grande’s.
Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until winners are announced. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.
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