Is ‘Conclave’ the key to Ralph Fiennes’s long overdue first Oscar?

Ralph Fiennes is a curious case at the Oscars. He has earned two nominations in his career, but they both came back in the ’90s for “Schindler’s List” (1993) and “The English Patient” (1996). What makes that so curious is that he never stopped appearing in Oscar movies, but he somehow wasn’t nominated for any of them over the next 27 years. This year, though, the combined predictions of Gold Derby users suggest that Fiennes will finally make the cut again for Best Actor for “Conclave.”

Let’s consider Fiennes’s impressive filmography since “The English Patient.” “The End of the Affair” (1999) earned co-star Julianne Moore an Oscar nom. “The Constant Gardener” (2005) won an Oscar for co-star Rachel Weisz. “In Bruges” (2008) contended for its original screenplay. “The Reader” (2008) won an Oscar for co-star Kate Winslet and was nominated for Best Picture. “The Hurt Locker” (2009) won Best Picture. “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (2014) was nominated for Best Picture and claimed four Ocars overall. And “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar” (2023) won the Oscar for Best Live Action Short. All that, and no Oscar noms for Fiennes.

Directed by Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front“), “Conclave” stars Fiennes as Cardinal Lawrence, who must uncover the secrets of the deceased Pope while tasked with selecting his replacement. A trailer for the film premiered in July, showing a reserved Fiennes performance; the academy usually prefers emotional fireworks, which may certainly be contained in the rest of the film, but last year Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) prevailed for a restrained, contemplative performance as the title nuclear scientist, and if you’re overdue for Oscar glory as Fiennes is, it may not matter how flashy your performance is.

So far Fiennes is looking good for at least a nomination. He ranks second in our Best Actor predictions with 4/1 odds. As of this writing all 15 of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed are betting on Fiennes to make the cut, with one of them, Tariq Khan (Gold Derby), predicting him to win. He trails Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”), who has the advantage that his film has already been released and generated early buzz and acclaim. But the Oscar race is a marathon, not a sprint, and “Conclave” will soon see the light of day in September at the Toronto International Film Festival, giving Fiennes the chance to catch up if the film lives up to its early hype. The film is then scheduled for theatrical release on November 1.