Predicting the first 12-team playoff from Ohio State to Memphis with 4 SEC teams — but no Alabama
Not everything is changing in college football this season.
Texas and Oklahoma will still descend on the Texas State Fair in early October and split the Cotton Bowl in half for the Red River Rivalry. There will just be a Southeastern Conference logo on the field when the Longhorns and Sooners square off.
Traveler, USC’s majestic white horse, will still be galloping the sideline at the Los Angeles Coliseum when the Trojans play — but this year one of those games will be against fellow new Big Ten member Rutgers on a Friday night.
Stanford’s mischievous Tree mascot will still be antagonizing the other team. Those league opponents will now be Clemson, Virginia Tech and SMU as the Cardinal, a short drive from the Pacific Ocean, now call the Atlantic Coast Conference home.
This is definitely going to take some getting used. Superconferences and a 12-team College Football Playoff make this season more difficult to predict than ever, but we will give it a shot anyway.
Overachievers
Unranked teams that will end the season ranked:
— Boise State. No teams from outside the Power Four (and Notre Dame) began the season ranked in the AP Top 25. That always changes by the end. The defending Mountain West champion Broncos, led by star running back Ashton Jeanty, are the safest bet to break through.
— Virginia Tech. The Hokies showed promise during a 5-2 closing kick to end last season. The return of QB Kyrone Drones and most of a defense that ranked third in the ACC in yards per play allowed should have Virginia Tech flirting with 10 wins.
— Iowa State. Four of the last five Big 12 title games included at least one team that started the season unranked. RB Abu Sama and WR Jayden Higgins make the Cyclones this year’s Big 12 breakout team.
Underachievers
Three teams ranked in the preseason Top 25 that will end the season unranked:
— No. 9 Michigan. In all but one of the previous 21 seasons, at least one preseason top 10 team finished unranked. An enormous amount of coaching staff and roster turnover make this a reset season in Ann Arbor, and the Wolverines are doing it against a schedule that includes No. 4 Texas, No. 3 Oregon and No. 2 Ohio State.
— No. 16 Oklahoma. A good SEC team or two will finish 7-5 or worse. Welcome, Sooners.
— No. 21 Arizona. There are four Big 12 teams ranked between Nos. 17-21. At least one will wash out. Go with the one with the new coaching staff.
Conference champions
— American Athletic: Memphis over USF. A matchup of two of the best quarterbacks outside the Power Four in the Tigers’ Seth Henigan and Bulls’ Byrum Brown.
— ACC: Miami over Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes are this season’s Texas, breaking through under a third-year coach after two seasons that didn’t inspire a ton of confidence.
— Big Ten: Ohio State over Oregon. The Buckeyes avenge a regular-season loss in Eugene to the Ducks.
— Big 12: Kansas State over Iowa State. Avery Johnson leads the Wildcats to the title and earns a trip to New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist.
— Conference USA: Liberty over Jacksonville State. Jamey Chadwell’s Flames could be looking at another unbeaten regular season.
— Mid-American: Miami (Ohio) over Northern Illinois. The return of QB Brett Gabbert from injury helps the RedHawks become the first repeat MAC champs since NIU in 2011-12.
— Mountain West: Boise State over Air Force. The Broncos make it two titles in a row in a conference with new or interim coaches at seven of 12 schools.
— SEC: Georgia over Mississippi. The Bulldogs won’t be perfect, but no team is better equipped to navigate the SEC gauntlet.
— Sun Belt: Texas State over Appalachian State. Bobcats coach G.J. Kinne is going to draw a lot of attention when the hiring and firing carousel cranks up.
Coaching carousel
The expanded CFP has a chance to make a huge impact on the hiring cycle, keeping an additional eight coaches occupied through at least mid-December.
Will schools decide to wait out the postseason to make a hire? Unlikely with the early high school signing period and transfer portal opening before playoff games begin.
Expect schools looking to make a move to be aggressive in-season. With that said, both Florida’s Billy Napier and Arkansas’ Sam Pittman probably won’t make it past mid-November.
Who gets those gigs? How about Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz to the Gators and SMU’s Rhett Lashlee to Arkansas?
College Football Playoff
History suggests the first 12-team CFP will have at least a few surprise entrants. More than you might think.
Last season was one of the chalkiest in recent years. The highly ranked teams hardly ever lost and when they did, it was to other highly ranked teams. Let’s assume more volatility this season because that’s more typical for the first- and second rounds:
9 seed Tennessee at 8 Notre Dame, winner vs. 1 seed Ohio State at the Rose Bowl.
12 seed Memphis at 5 seed Oregon, winner vs. 4 seed Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl.
10 seed Wisconsin at 7 seed Texas, winner vs. 2 seed Georgia at the Sugar Bowl.
11 seed Virginia Tech at 6 seed Ole Miss, winner vs. 3 seed Miami at the Peach Bowl.
National champion
Ohio State over Georgia in the title game Jan. 20. The Buckeyes and Bulldogs seem like they are on a tier of their own this season. After going all in, Ohio State cashes in with its first national title since 2014.
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Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP
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AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football