Five unanswered questions on Bayesian sinking – how the yacht went down in 60 seconds to whether warnings were ignored
THE sinking of the Bayesian yacht on Monday left a trail of devastation amid a frantic search for survivors.
The £30million vessel, which had 22 people on board, was swallowed up by the sea off the coast of Italy after a freak weather accident, leaving six passengers unaccounted for.
Tragically, the bodies of British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, 59, and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah were recovered earlier today.
Two more bodies have since been recovered but not identified. Other passengers still unaccounted for include Morgan Stanley boss Jonathan Bloomer, his wife Judy, lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda.
The body of Recaldo Thomas, a Canadian-Antiguan cook who was working on the boat was recovered near the vessel. Meanwhile, 15 people were rescued with most clinging to small life rafts.
Lynch was onboard the yacht to celebrate after he was acquitted in a fraud trial in the United States.
Bayesian had been docked 300metres off the coast before a tornado on the water also known as a waterspout hit following thunderstorms in nearby Palermo.
Speaking to The Associated Press, Captain Karsten Borner of the Sir Robert Baden Powell told how his vessel managed to save the survivors who made it to a lifeboat.
He recalled being near the storm as it approached and how his crew rallied to aid those in distress.
“A moment later, she was gone,” he said, adding that the survivors told them they “were sunk in two minutes.”
Investigators and rescuers are now working around the clock to piece together exactly what happened and retrieve any possible survivors.
The disaster has led to many urgent questions about the sequence of events that led to this maritime tragedy and the potential oversights that may have contributed to the possible loss of lives.
Why did the vessel sink when others stayed afloat?
The circumstances that led to the vessel sinking has been one of the most debated questions in the tragedy.
Some experts believe the yacht’s 250-foot aluminium mast may have caused it to overturn and sink. The mast broke during the waterspout.
According to nautical expert Gino Ciriaci, the yacht’s staggering weight may have contributed to its rapid sinking.
He told the Italian website Corriere Della Sera that a mast can break when a vessel encounters “particularly extreme conditions.”
He added that the boat’s movements would have been much more erratic without the mast and sails to mitigate its motions.
Some experts also say this is the reason why the Bayesian sank while other vessels managed to stay afloat.
Sam Jefferson, editor of the magazine Sailing Today said: “I would have said that the boat got hit very hard by the wind, it was pinned over on its side.”
Were the access hatches closed before disaster?
Investigators are probing whether hatches left open were a contributory factor to the yacht’s sinking.
An expert at the scene told Reuters that one of the earliest aims for investigators was to establish whether the crew did not close access hatches before disaster struck.
With temperatures above 33 degrees, they may have been left open for air circulation.
Sam Jefferson said: “I imagine all the doors were open because it was hot, so there were enough hatches and doors open that it filled with water very quickly and sank like that.”
Specialists in yachting have said that access hatches that are open can cause vessels to fill with water and sink quickly.
Prosecutors from Termini Imerese, a town nearby are said to have opened an investigation into the case.
According to The Telegraph, they will consider whether there is enough evidence to charge any of the crew members with criminal offences.
Ambrogio Cartosio, the chief prosecutor of Termini Imerese, is set to interview the 15 survivors of the disaster. They will also work closely with emergency workers and coast guard divers.
The UK’s Marine Accident Investigation Branch has also sent a team of investigators to help ascertain exactly how the tragedy unfolded.
Was it safe to be moored there?
Many have wondered if the Bayesian was safe to dock in the area following reports that Palermo was hit by a thunderstorm.
According to Boat International: “Eyewitnesses in the area reported “hurricane” conditions off the coast but local weather websites did not indicate any severe squall, which suggests that the weather event was not forecast.”
However, the Italian coast guard has said that bad weather had been forecast but the weather conditions were even worse than predicted.
Prosecutors are said to be investigating whether adequate preparations were made for the storm, including activating features that add extra stability in the event of bad weather.
On Tuesday, Luca Mercalli, the president of the Italian Meteorological Society, said they would also be looking into why the passengers weren’t woken and instructed to wear life jackets.
Why was there little damage to the boat?
Although the Bayesian capsized and was found on its side, Marco Tilotta, a diver from Vigili del Fuoco di Palermo who is coordinating the search and rescue, told Italian media that the yacht was “practically intact”.
Other experts have described how the whirlwind was so extremely violent that it caused the boat to tilt with the edge of the deck submerged underwater.
This resulted in water entering the boat, ultimately causing it to sink.
A nearby boat, the Sir Robert, managed to come away from the incident without any damage. Its captain, Karsten Bornerhas, has spoken about how he worked to stabilise his vessel amid the tempest.
He also said he managed to steer it clear away from the Bayesian as it sank.
What caused the freak weather?
Waterspouts are like tornadoes over water, forming during storms. They can be dangerous for boats because they bring strong winds and waves.
If a waterspout hits a boat, the powerful winds can push it sideways or even lift parts of it, making the boat unstable.
This sudden force can cause the boat to tip over or capsize, especially if the boat is small or navigating rough waters.
Maritime experts say the waterspout that affected the Bayesian may have hit without any warning signs and may well have been caused by rising sea temperatures – as the surface water heated to almost 30 degrees.
Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, said: “Looking at the extreme weather, if it was a waterspout, which it appears to be, it’s what I would class as a black swan event.
“And if the waterspout ends up dumping a load of that water on board the vessel, that’s going to cause significant damage.”
According to the BBC, an analysis of tornadoes and waterspouts recorded in Italy from 2001 to 2016 found 707 waterspouts and 371 tornadoes.
Of these, 25 per cent of the waterspouts made land and became tornadoes.