Analysis of lithium trade patterns and influencing factors in the regions along the "Belt and Road"

by Ziyun Ruan, Peng Du, Yanan Jiao

Lithium has broad applications in several emerging industries and fields, including high energy batteries, energy storage, aerospace, and controlled nuclear reactions. Currently, the discrepancy between the supply and demand for lithium resources increases, and its distribution is uneven. Within the framework of the "Belt and Road" Initiative, the lithium trade pattern evolves constantly. However, the trade pattern of lithium in the nations along the "Belt and Road" is likely to face substantial repercussions in modern world of unilateral protectionism and geopolitical conflicts. Taking the social network analysis approach as a tool, this study first examines the characteristics of the lithium trade network structure as it has evolved over the years in the Belt and Road countries, from 2000 to 2022. Additionally, this study uses the quadratic assignment problem approach to analyze the factors influencing the evolution of the lithium trade network. The study shows that: (1) The spatial patterns of import and export trade network of lithium in countries along the route has a certain path dependence. And the market is mainly concentrated in East Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, South America and Southeast Asia. (2) The network density of the countries along the route has increased year after year, but it remains low. And the fluctuation of the network’s reciprocity has increased, with a huge magnitude of variation. The number of core countries in the network has decreased over time, but the core-periphery structure has stayed largely steady. China, Chile, and South Korea are the network’s main node countries. (3) Regarding the influencing factors, the differences in economic and technological development between these countries have a beneficial impact on the formation of lithium trade; whether or not regional trade agreements have been signed, the differences about average tax rates for mineral products, bordering countries, and similar languages and cultures are all conducive to the establishment of close trade links. The contribution of this essay is of paramount importance for understanding different countries’ role along the Belt and Road in the lithium trade network pattern, and promoting regional trade cooperation.