Emmy winners ‘Welcome to Wrexham’ and ‘Love on the Spectrum’ go head-to-head for the first time

The last two Emmy winners for Best Unstructured Reality Program were “Love on the Spectrum U.S.” (2022) and “Welcome to Wrexham” (2023). But the two strikingly different programs haven’t gone head-to-head until now. “Wrexham” wasn’t on the air yet when “Spectrum” won, and “Spectrum” was between seasons when “Wrexham” prevailed. Now that voters will have to choose between them, which nonfiction series has the advantage?

According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, “Wrexham” has a significant edge. The series, following actors and executive producers Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney after their purchase of a Welsh football club (that’s soccer to us Yanks), won five out of its six nominations last year, including trophies for cinematography, picture editing, directing and sound mixing in addition to Best Unstructured Reality Program. The only award it lost was for sound editing. That dominant performance and its six additional nominations this year may be why the show is currently predicted to win by five out of eight Expert journalists we’ve surveyed so far, 10 out of 11 Gold Derby Editors, 23 of our Top 24 Users and 20 of our All-Star Top 24.

The last time it was at the Emmys, “Love on the Spectrum” also swept, claiming three prizes: Best Unstructured Reality Program plus trophies for casting and picture editing. It has four nominations this time around with a repeat bids for casting and editing and a first-time nom for directing in addition to the top program award. So the series about the romantic lives of individuals on the autism spectrum has even more support from the academy than it had before. And it’s predicted to win by two Experts, one Editor, one Top User and two All-Stars.

Because Emmy voters went all-in on both shows the last times they had the chance, it’s hard to say for sure which way they’ll turn this year, but there’s confidence among our pundits that it’ll be one of the two. There’s only one All-Star predicting an upset by “RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked” and one Expert going out on a limb for “Vanderpump Rules,” with “Below Deck Down Under” trailing as the ultimate underdog with four of our everyday Users backing it. Do you agree that this is strictly a two-way race, or are we underestimating the other three rivals? Make sure to make your predictions and update them as often as you like before the Creative Arts Awards.