Mortgage Interest Rates Today, August 22, 2024 | What the Cooling Labor Market Means for Mortgage Rates
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Mortgage rates fell earlier this month in response to a cooler-than-expected jobs report, and new data suggests that rates could tick down further soon. Average 30-year mortgage rates have remained around 6% so far this week, according to Zillow data.
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released revised data showing that the U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from early 2023 through early 2024 than initially reported. This could put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates more quickly to avoid a significant economic downturn. Right now, markets are pricing in a likely 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's next meeting in September. But weak economic data could push Fed officials to opt for a larger, 50-basis-point cut.
What does this mean for mortgage rates? As the economy cools off and the Fed starts lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to go down. Fannie Mae's latest housing forecast predicts that average 30-year rates won't fall into the 5% range until late 2025. But if the Fed cuts rates more aggressively, mortgage rates could drop faster than expected.
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Mortgage Rate Projection for 2024
Mortgage rates have been elevated for most of 2024, but they've recently started trending down. As the economy continues to normalize this year, rates should come down further.
In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9%, a significant slowdown compared to when it peaked at 9.1% in 2022. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to drop.
For homeowners looking to leverage their home's value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of the best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.
A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you're borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you'd do with a cash-out refinance.
Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans.
When Will House Prices Come Down?
We aren't likely to see home prices drop anytime soon thanks to extremely limited supply. In fact, they'll likely rise this year as mortgage rates drop.
Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to increase 6.1% in 2024, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects a 4.1% increase in 2024.
Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices. But prices aren't expected to increase as much as they have in recent years.
Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons
Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.
So how do you choose between a fixed-rate vs. adjustable-rate mortgage?
ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it's a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.
Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won't change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).
But in exchange for this stability, you'll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further down the road, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate
How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?
Adjustable-rate mortgages start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.
How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.
The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.
ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.